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  • #796,861
  • May 12, 2013 10:31am May 12, 2013 10:31am
Quoting attila
{quote} I am not sure how you want to do it, but if you're interested in numbers crunching, I can highly recommend this book. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/047...?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Thanks Attila...

and here is a treat for you.

http://www.timingcharts.com/ You can look at some c.o.t stuff in visual form.

I got it from this pfd... Which is very good advice for traders.

I just went back to two H&S patterns that are past. I realized that the distance of the last shoulder might be able to be calculated with more number crunching. Maybe it is just a fluke! Alright.. good night all. Your Sunday evening trade is my morning trade.
Attached File(s)
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Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #796,862
  • May 12, 2013 10:34am May 12, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Smaller leverage actually. In fact I think for starters it is best to remain on less than 1:1 leverage. Maybe its just me. Who wouldnt take free cash with one click of a mouse.


it's not just you, and I think there's a bunch of people want to be a billionaire with just a click ..... hmmm ....
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #796,863
  • May 12, 2013 11:02am May 12, 2013 11:02am
Quoting Purec
{quote} If i try to trade let's say H1 tf it's tehnically ok BUT 1:Not everytime when PA cross the 50 EMA ( which i use ) will go up / down 50 or more pips 2:Need to put a bigger SL - here is my biggest problem , on 5M tf my SL is 7 pips ( 2 spread and 5 more ) , let's say i loose 3 times , 3 x 7 = 21 , well fourth time i think it can go 30 pips => i'm in profit On 1H tf SL should be ... i don't know ... 30 pips ? well 30 pips 1 time , 2 times , 3 times , it's 90 pips , 90 pips it's more than 80% of my account NOW . So that's why i need to...

visit http://www.fxfred.com/archive/index.php/t-2104.html
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #796,864
  • May 12, 2013 11:09am May 12, 2013 11:09am
think about risk per trade instead of leverage..

e.g. a risk of 0.5 percent could easily justify a leverage of 20 times..

ofc you need to have a well tested strategy but thats a different story..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #796,865
  • Edited 3:18pm May 12, 2013 11:14am | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Anyway, what do you think of QE right now? Do you see unemployment getting worse in US despite QE?
I think the Fed can and will pull out of bond buying. There will be jawboning. Then they will announce it. At the earliest this Fall. (That's the kinda shit might blow our of Jackson Hole.) Jawbone may slow or reverse overheated US stock market some, which is beginning to scare bigdog fund managers across the board.

And yes, you are right, we have Abenomics now. I think there are strategic reasons why Abenomics will continue to get a pass. USD and JPY have done a little dosey-do over the last year, hope you caught some of that. The dance is not over & I bet there will be more moves to catch.

US unemployment will continue to fall. Big piece of the puzzle in the US economy was lost under the sofa but will be getting put back in its place - housing. Housing the warp drive engine of the US economy and when fully online changes everything. What we like to do here in the USA is shop. Give a guy some steady income and he will forsure spend it. I myself want to put a 10kW photovoltaic system on the roof of my barn. Then, of course, I will need the Tesla Model S (made in the USA).

Here in Western WA I am out in the country every day. The salmon swim up the creeks and the elk shit and eat grass at the same time exactly like they did 10,000,000 years ago. Some things never change, but everything changes. On the roads, I see a lot more log trucks, taking the fat firs to the mills. The price for the raw lumber is way up. The cabinet makers' shops in Portland are all working through long backlogs of orders. New cabinets for new housing, new apartment buildings, and offices, etc.

Population growth in the US fell from stable 0.95%/yr pre-recession to <0.75%/yr in '12. Wow. That will snap back, maybe. New babies need new stuff.

Worst thing going on in US is politics. Sequester will hurt growth if it is allowed to. Austerity will be a failure. Ideologue Tea Party "fear the debt" crowd is just in the way. Plenty of other wild cards can be played. Syria biggest one I see. Anything can happen, though, which makes the game interesting. Best of luck to you, Tom.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #796,866
  • May 12, 2013 11:37am May 12, 2013 11:37am
Quoting RsX
{quote} SugarPink - interesting chart of sentiment.. is it from a public source, or.. your propietary? If the graph indicates retail buying - should mean institutions await at higher levels (for wholesale shorts)...
its from myfxbook website. Comunity -> Outlook.
I don't know if it means that, but yeah I expect a rise to 1.33 to squeeze all the shorts before starting the summer down trend.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #796,867
  • May 12, 2013 12:34pm May 12, 2013 12:34pm
  •  Noeliu
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Hit SL?? Clicked the wrong button | 51 Posts
Hi there! Looking at the charts, I see a strong BUY signal on EUR USD.

Look at how the Stochastics indicates a quick change on trend in H4, and TDI confirms it just after. Now look at the signal to come as the market opens today...
Take care, and BUY EUR/USD! I'm already LONG at 1.3000 and 1.3030
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  • #796,868
  • Edited 3:22pm May 12, 2013 1:29pm | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting The Fool
I think the Fed can and will pull out of bond buying.
Thank you for your thoughts Fool, appreciated. You really have great overview of general market conditions.

Regarding housing, if housing picks up, I am going to eat my socks . Nah seriously, it can pick up, but hey, those MBS in banks all across US are still valued pre 2008. So FED is loosing hard while buying em. I can see situation where thanks to massive QE housing picks up. But I cant see simultaneously FED withdrawing from QE and housing picking up. I can see consumer spending picking up, but not housing. People will really relax a bit when get steady income.

Regarding population growth, you forgot to count in Mexicans . Maybe it was on purpose. Although US population itself has low birth rate, you´ve got quite loads of immigrants.

Eh, Abenomics, just gotta love that. Read lots of theories about it. Mr. Kuroda san is obviously counting on fact that most of Japanese bonds are held by domestic private investors, who wont sell them. So they can achieve both inflation and low yields on bonds. Gotta laugh . Sure it is going to work... In fact I see a gigantic conspiration here. You know I wear tin-foil hat, dont you? Anyway, BoJ is not only buying Japanese and US bonds, but also ETFs and some kind of Japanese mortgage securities. So, I think they may have made a deal, saying like: "Hey guys, we are gonna clear your toxic ETFs and Mortgages, also we take ultimate risk and buy all your bonds no matter price, and you aint gonna sell too much of those short term debt. Deal? Deal." Anyway, would expect world leaders to say something against such a massive devaluation of currency, but as you pointed out, US got their back. Both G20 and G7 supported this extraordinary move. G7 support on this Friday resulted in UJ breaking 100 and my loss. I am really wondering how far will this go. Anyway, lets proceed to second theory . I ve heard Yen devaluation has no base in real economics and is just a panic short. Reasoning for this is that Japanese enterprises actually dont borrow more. None of this newly printed money is actually reaching economy and is stuck in banking sector. Nice theory, isnt it?

Good luck this week,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,869
  • May 12, 2013 1:39pm May 12, 2013 1:39pm
nice start to the week,

reuters at 1.2933
  • #796,870
  • May 12, 2013 1:54pm May 12, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting JeremyWS
nice start to the week, reuters at 1.2933
Not a real value actually. Bloomy had like 1,2947 10 minutes ago and now has ,3021. There is a) hardly any liquidity in market right now b) massive bearish overshoot last week was due to so much events taking place at the same time, it may have distorted markets. In effect they can pretty easily spike back to recover last week lossess. One way or the other, I expect heavy volatility at start of the week. Will be very rough for bulls, but I hope we start week with correction of Fridays nonscence.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,871
  • May 12, 2013 2:00pm May 12, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Not a real value actually. Bloomy had like 1,2947 10 minutes ago and now has ,3021. There is a) hardly any liquidity in market right now b) massive bearish overshoot last week was due to so much events taking place at the same time, it may have distorted markets. In effect they can pretty easily spike back to recover last week lossess. One way or the other, I expect heavy volatility at start of the week. Will be very rough for bulls, but I hope we start week with correction of Fridays nonscence.
I'm not worried at all for this coming week.

There will be money for the bulls and the bears.

Daily is still in a ranging mode so far.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #796,872
  • May 12, 2013 2:05pm May 12, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting SugarPink
Some people are susgesting that the market is pricing a 'exit' of the monetary easing from the FED and a interest rate cut rise, with this dollar surge. They can't be serious, If the FED stops or even hints about stopping all markets around the world will crash, it will be 2008 again. I belive in a strong dollar too on the long term but its only becase of the growing of US economy, that is outpacing the rest, like europe. So lets go to 1.33 already..
I think that the final of the monetary easing from the FED, won't be in one stop. I t will be step by step, because they are conscious the bubble they have created in US Stock Market. But there will be a correction in that way, as they cannot always going on with this monetary policy.
  • #796,873
  • May 12, 2013 2:06pm May 12, 2013 2:06pm
Y, y, Kuroro, you are never worried. Wish I had your attitude. Although daily is still in ranging mode, we have already covered whole range and upper range got retested already three times. I dont think fourth attempt to retest R is going to bounce down. Well in fact I ve thought already third test would be break up. But if we test ,316- ,319 for the fourth time, imo there is no way R will hold and we are gonna have a break.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,874
  • May 12, 2013 2:12pm May 12, 2013 2:12pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Current price
  • #796,875
  • May 12, 2013 2:15pm May 12, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting derekw
{image} Current price
what beroker do you use?
can you show me GBP/USD chart?
  • #796,876
  • May 12, 2013 2:17pm May 12, 2013 2:17pm
Use the chart at this link: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts...charts/?ibfx=1
  • #796,877
  • May 12, 2013 2:19pm May 12, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Y, y, Kuroro, you are never worried. Wish I had your attitude. Although daily is still in ranging mode, we have already covered whole range and upper range got retested already three times. I dont think fourth attempt to retest R is going to bounce down. Well in fact I ve thought already third test would be break up. But if we test ,316- ,319 for the fourth time, imo there is no way R will hold and we are gonna have a break.
I completely agree on it, next time bulls are going to crush the resistance.

We may dip a bit further down first though.

We just need another daily bullish setup and sky's coming.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #796,878
  • May 12, 2013 2:22pm May 12, 2013 2:22pm
i need suggestion for broker having fixed spread and instant withdrawal.
  • #796,879
  • May 12, 2013 2:24pm May 12, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting kuroro001
We may dip a bit further down first though.
Y, I may burn a little bit more... Seriously, fack that. Watching Bloomy quotes and Gold is yet again in 2% loss already. But eh, the lower we go, the more I buy. But if this bear is going to prevail one more week, it will hurt me seriously.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,880
  • May 12, 2013 2:37pm May 12, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Y, I may burn a little bit more... Seriously, fack that. Watching Bloomy quotes and Gold is yet again in 2% loss already. But eh, the lower we go, the more I buy. But if this bear is going to prevail one more week, it will hurt me seriously.
Yes i don't know how low we can go...most likely below 1,2900.
I hope not more than 1,2800 because things will get ugly.

I still eye the sky mid term.

Time will tell
COT: The precious data ignored
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