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  • #796,841
  • May 11, 2013 2:26pm May 11, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Eh oh, trade on 5m till recover lossess doesnt seem like such a good idea to me. The smaller timeframe, the more market noise, influence of algos, fakes, spikes. You really need to understand this shit (and also have a great timing to dodge news, london close, H4 close, etc.). Definitely not easy. Anyway, your post suggests you dont understand to statistics that much. It doesnt matter what timeframe you use, just simply change settings of your indicator and it will be (almost) the same on any timeframe. For example if you use stoch 14 on...
If i try to trade let's say H1 tf it's tehnically ok BUT

1:Not everytime when PA cross the 50 EMA ( which i use ) will go up / down 50 or more pips
2:Need to put a bigger SL - here is my biggest problem , on 5M tf my SL is 7 pips ( 2 spread and 5 more ) , let's say i loose 3 times , 3 x 7 = 21 , well fourth time i think it can go 30 pips => i'm in profit

On 1H tf SL should be ... i don't know ... 30 pips ? well 30 pips 1 time , 2 times , 3 times , it's 90 pips , 90 pips it's more than 80% of my account NOW .

So that's why i need to trade on small tf . Understand Tom ?

Tell me if my interpretation of situation is wrong
Make choices and don't look back !
  • #796,842
  • May 11, 2013 2:31pm May 11, 2013 2:31pm
For Mon-Tue, looking for intraday short setups, once market hits 3020-3030 zone - that's the lowest area of interest. Most preferred scenario for short signals is, if revisits above Friday's high, retracing into the 3055-3070 area - and meets supply there.

1st multiday target is 2840-2860 area. Longer-term (multiweek) target magnets on my daily are 2650-2700 first, followed by 2540-2560 area.


Bull-wise... Bears' very last defence is at 3090-3100 - if prints anything above that, odds are going for a re-test (and probably a breakout) of 3150-80, meaning multiweek continuation higher - 3250+ and from there 3300+ ahead should be rather quick, considering the amount of stop clusters up there.
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #796,843
  • May 11, 2013 2:55pm May 11, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting SugarPink
Some people are susgesting that the market is pricing a 'exit' of the monetary easing from the FED and a interest rate cut rise, with this dollar surge. They can't be serious, If the FED stops or even hints about stopping all markets around the world will crash, it will be 2008 again. I belive in a strong dollar too on the long term but its only becase of the growing of US economy, that is outpacing the rest, like europe. So lets go to 1.33 already..
They don't have to do anything, only talk about it. First the jawbone, then the fact. But the fact will arrive. First will be a pullback on the bond buying. Then will be rate hike if US unemployment continues to fall. I'm looking at Jackson Hole. Fall '09 redux?

Wild card is Syria. If the bombing runs begin this Summer, you'll find out how strong the euro is. Nothing like a good war to clean the clocks tho.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #796,844
  • May 11, 2013 3:28pm May 11, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting Purec
Tell me if my interpretation of situation is wrong
Oh man, I just came from pub sry. I dont like to be in position of giving advices, cause I aint full time trader. Maybe toworrow, I can come up with some advice.

But eh, 90 pips 80% of account? Ever heard the L word which is right now moving the world? It is a drug, fuelling assets all around you, spreading disease through whole society. Dont fell under its power or you shall become blind and your accounts will be wiped out.

4 Fool: Really glad you showed up. I have to agree. Nice to see it compressed .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,845
  • May 11, 2013 3:30pm May 11, 2013 3:30pm
Retail is buying this move down en masse. starting under 1.3030 price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: retail dollar buy.png Size: 39 KB
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #796,846
  • May 11, 2013 8:02pm May 11, 2013 8:02pm
uerusd m15.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4.gif Size: 28 KB
only one is definitely in forex, the price will change. down or up
  • #796,847
  • May 11, 2013 8:49pm May 11, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting Purec
{quote} If i try to trade let's say H1 tf it's tehnically ok BUT 1:Not everytime when PA cross the 50 EMA ( which i use ) will go up / down 50 or more pips 2:Need to put a bigger SL - here is my biggest problem , on 5M tf my SL is 7 pips ( 2 spread and 5 more ) , let's say i loose 3 times , 3 x 7 = 21 , well fourth time i think it can go 30 pips => i'm in profit On 1H tf SL should be ... i don't know ... 30 pips ? well 30 pips 1 time , 2 times , 3 times , it's 90 pips , 90 pips it's more than 80% of my account NOW . So that's why i need to...
Out of experience, it's complete bullshit. The timeframe doesn't dictate the stoploss.
  • #796,848
  • May 11, 2013 9:15pm May 11, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting Purec
{quote} If i try to trade let's say H1 tf it's tehnically ok BUT 1:Not everytime when PA cross the 50 EMA ( which i use ) will go up / down 50 or more pips 2:Need to put a bigger SL - here is my biggest problem , on 5M tf my SL is 7 pips ( 2 spread and 5 more ) , let's say i loose 3 times , 3 x 7 = 21 , well fourth time i think it can go 30 pips => i'm in profit On 1H tf SL should be ... i don't know ... 30 pips ? well 30 pips 1 time , 2 times , 3 times , it's 90 pips , 90 pips it's more than 80% of my account NOW . So that's why i need to...
Wow what leverage are you using?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #796,849
  • May 11, 2013 9:18pm May 11, 2013 9:18pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Wow what leverage are you using?
If I calculate correctly, that must be a leverage of 1:88.89
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #796,850
  • May 11, 2013 9:33pm May 11, 2013 9:33pm
If enough people cry "Wolf!" - will the Wolf come?

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/10...l?t=financials
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #796,851
  • May 11, 2013 11:22pm May 11, 2013 11:22pm
Just a warning to all who come across these 2 screen names, he is the same guy and is quite rude>>>>>>>>>>

OK CP with 2 screen names and who is rude to everyone..............

CrucialPoint's Brain Teaser to Fortunes < CP is also Xhale sneaking around being rude to most in FF, beware............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #796,852
  • May 12, 2013 12:53am May 12, 2013 12:53am
i have chart here, correct me if im wrong.

in H4 we are still consolidating isnt it ?
its just ranging, but it probably we gotta going down because our current high wave below before high wave.

and it depend on the 1.2949 price, if it break we go down to 1.2867.
but GJ and UJ have bull power after "G7" meeting and EU combine strength to GU.
so its gonna be hard to pass 1.2949.
  • #796,853
  • Edited 6:28am May 12, 2013 6:03am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting Purec
{quote} If i try to trade let's say H1 tf it's tehnically ok BUT 1:Not everytime when PA cross the 50 EMA ( which i use ) will go up / down 50 or more pips 2:Need to put a bigger SL - here is my biggest problem ....
Ok man, as I ve said, I dont like to be in position of a mentor, since I know I dont know shit. Nevertheless, what you just wrote is such a lack of understanding to whole this job, that i have to tell you few things. First of all, the L word, is leverage. Whale counted it right. Right now, you are trading at something like 89:1 leverage. This number is absurd. You are a) heavily undercapitalized b) aiming to be billionaire from 100 bucks. If the a) is your scenario, I recommend to trade demo and test leverage max 1:10. After you test it, get a job and fund your account properly. You may have seen sisse trashing me here a bit for me trying to fade weekly move on Friday. Fading of weekly move is my toughest entry sequence and usually hits my account hard. Max risk while entering is 2% - which is about 50 pips and leverage 1:4. 1:4 is the biggest leverage I am able to use while entering. And as you may have seen, I have kinda burned on Friday. 1:89? Cmon, if you were able to use such a leverage, you would need to be superpro trading for decades. In fact, I think no superpro would be using such a leverage, cause he would be properly capitalized, but that is not the point. Point is, those aint free money, they are going to eat your margin. If you click buy, you are in fact taking a loan 89 times bigger than your deposit. Do you feel as such a good investor, that you dare to borrow 89 times your capital and buy some market? Just because of EMA cross?

For the second. "not everytime when PA crossess 50 EMA" wtf? What the heck is this trigger? You need to understand where you are. You are participating trading foreign exchange market. It is the biggest market in the world with turnaround about 4 Tril Daily. Backbone of market are CBs, banks, hedge funds, financial institutions and few more. Do you think these conglomerates with assets in Trillions are looking at 50 EMA cross? Sure, they“ve made trillions by buying when we cross EMA. (Btw, I ve made a litttle program, it is called "EMA 3000". It puts EMAs 1 - 300 in chart and measures how many EMA“s are broken during the move. And believe me, EMA cross doesnt work as trigger).

Third of all, no serious broker offers you 89:1 leverage. The fact you also have 2 pips spread suggests you havent exactly picked the right one. Would bet he is from Cyprus . Dont want to trash broker I actually dont know, but they are all thieves anyway. If you have 2 pips spread, sick broker and are trading on 7 pips SL, 89:1 leverage, I can guarantee he will rob you and you are gonna burn.

Hope I have helped a bit,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,854
  • May 12, 2013 6:21am May 12, 2013 6:21am
Quoting The Fool
If enough people cry "Wolf!" - will the Wolf come? http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/10...l?t=financials
No he wont. Anyway, what do you think of QE right now? I ve seen you talking about those rate hikes once inflation starts to bite. I think the same, but only because unemployment is getting better right now. In fact that is variable I didnt expect to be improving that much and I also think those are only short term jobs created by flood of cheap money. Like half a year ago, I was playing prophet and saying we are gonna see QE10. And that still may be the option. Imagine scenario right now. ECB, Aussie, India, South Korea, all cut rates, rofl Japan massive easing. Overall, there is big chunk of new money flowing through market right now. This gives the option to FED officials, to start jawboning about end of QE. But they cant end it in fact, as that would trigger event you posted yesterday. Correction in bonds, followed by spiking inflation and rate hike. So, may it happen like they jawbone a bit, say the“r gonna ease less, but wont do a shit. In effect equities correct down, but not that much, since funny money is still flowing from the rest of the world, seeking yield.

The most important question. Do you see unemployment getting worse in US despite QE? I mean, they wont stop sending cash in. Is it possible job market gets worse anyway, so in effect they would need to send in much more cash (mentioned QE10 spiral). Imo this scenario is quite possible, since those jobs are only short term and some bigger correction in equities after they peak could wipe out quite a big chunk of cash out of enterprises budget. So we may simply correct after peak, those people get fired and voilį, we are in need of next set of QE.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,855
  • May 12, 2013 9:30am May 12, 2013 9:30am
If you think economy is easy, here you got some food. If you like charts, you may be interested. If you love charts, you shouldnt skip this. It is already 2011 stuff, but those charts are so beautifull, I can definitely recommend to have a look. Small taste is below - USA 2008 Export treemap and economic complexity. Easy, isnt it? . Pdf can be downloaded in the second link. First is just an article about pdf from Businessinsider. Hope you are going to enjoy it.

T

http://www.businessinsider.com/atlas...y-2011-10?op=1
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/media/atl...Complexity.pdf
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: complexity.JPG Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: treemap.GIF Size: 122 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #796,856
  • May 12, 2013 10:05am May 12, 2013 10:05am
Crunching some numbers on my charts. On my 5m I am getting a first target of 1.30120 then small bounce down, then up to 1.30230 before heading for down. On my daily.. if it continues down, I have 1.27434 and if it decided to keep going up, I have a daily target of 1.34376. When I say daily, could take days to get there.. lol Also... I am trying to calculate it up to a fraction of a pip. So, more experienced traders.. please give me some input.

I am trying a new mathematics number crunching type of thingy for Price Action. Just a theory that popped into my head last night. I back tested it, and it works great in hindsight. So, now trying to forward test it.

I am trying this on the Aud/USd pair as well.

Anyways, I would like to hear some comments.

Wish me luck trading homies!
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #796,857
  • May 12, 2013 10:14am May 12, 2013 10:14am
Quoting SugarPink
Retail is buying this move down en masse. starting under 1.3030 price.
SugarPink - interesting chart of sentiment.. is it from a public source, or.. your propietary?
If the graph indicates retail buying - should mean institutions await at higher levels (for wholesale shorts)...
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #796,858
  • May 12, 2013 10:20am May 12, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Crunching some numbers on my charts. On my 5m I am getting a first target of 1.30120 then small bounce down, then up to 1.30230 before heading for down. On my daily.. if it continues down, I have 1.27434 and if it decided to keep going up, I have a daily target of 1.34376. When I say daily, could take days to get there.. lol Also... I am trying to calculate it up to a fraction of a pip. So, more experienced traders.. please give me some input. I am trying a new mathematics number crunching type of thingy for Price Action. Just a theory that popped...
I am not sure how you want to do it, but if you're interested in numbers crunching, I can highly recommend this book.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/047...?ie=UTF8&psc=1
  • #796,859
  • May 12, 2013 10:20am May 12, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Ok man, as I ve said, I dont like to be in position of a mentor, since I know I dont know shit. Nevertheless, what you just wrote is such a lack of understanding to whole this job, that i have to tell you few things. First of all, the L word, is leverage. Whale counted it right. Right now, you are trading at something like 89:1 leverage. This number is absurd. You are a) heavily undercapitalized b) aiming to be billionaire from 100 bucks. If the a) is your scenario, I recommend to trade demo and test leverage max 1:10. After you test it,...

in simple words: try larger leverage and smaller size lot
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #796,860
  • May 12, 2013 10:27am May 12, 2013 10:27am
Quoting hoezhiens
{quote} in simple words: try larger leverage and smaller size lot
Smaller leverage actually. In fact I think for starters it is best to remain on less than 1:1 leverage. Maybe its just me. Who wouldnt take free cash with one click of a mouse.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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