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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #340,641
  • May 12, 2013 5:47am May 12, 2013 5:47am
as long as we have swing high as is , even you may see a bullish looking w1 candle next week it is false in my eyes


Quoting Bones
medium term 1.4058 assuming we break low in next couple months {quote}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,642
  • May 12, 2013 5:54am May 12, 2013 5:54am
all eyes on gbp aud ,strong up looking to sell
eur cad very bearish looking to sell
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud 11-5-13 d1.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad 11-5-13 d1.png Size: 58 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,643
  • May 12, 2013 5:57am May 12, 2013 5:57am
but B you can use info like gbp aud as long as under tl potentially gbp bearish ?
tho aud will retrace also

Quoting baherhosni
{quote} oh and you will find analysis for other non cable related pairs too.. see how amazing being on this thread is.. its like having an FF summery on one thread.. by the way i am trying to be funny about it.. but i am in fact happy to belong to this thread and i feel at home here with all the amazing traders on the thread. i want to sent everyone a warm good morning on this fine Sunday morning.. bless you all.. @illbb how was Sunday school? or where you just kidding? cheers
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,644
  • May 12, 2013 6:26am May 12, 2013 6:26am
Quoting Bones
but B you can use info like gbp aud as long as under tl potentially gbp bearish ? tho aud will retrace also {quote}
But of course.. Completely agree. I was just adding a dash of humor to the thread! that's all.
I am like that when in stress..

My day job is the CEO and owner of a software development company.. and to make things worse, we're starting up too.. So the load and stress are way up there if yo know what I mean. We are working on weekends too to jump start all internal processes and complete our infrastructure.

So sharing with you guys and trading are becoming breaks for me... lol
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,645
  • May 12, 2013 6:41am May 12, 2013 6:41am
Hey bud I know that !
welcome to my world I have company too in uk also lots other stress cant say haha ,anyway
as I said
like your sense of humour and friendly way !




Quoting baherhosni
{quote} But of course.. Completely agree. I was just adding a dash of humor to the thread! that's all. I am like that when in stress.. My day job is the CEO and owner of a software development company.. and to make things worse, we're starting up too.. So the load and stress are way up there if yo know what I mean. We are working on weekends too to jump start all internal processes and complete our infrastructure. So sharing with you guys and trading are becoming breaks for me... lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,646
  • May 12, 2013 6:44am May 12, 2013 6:44am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} btw heres an article about FED ready to plan the us economic exit from stimulus... pretty much the END of QE as they say... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories
In all cases 1.52 is just a day's worth of south movement away using recent atr. So if not Monday, then Tuesday perhaps. And that is where we examine the strength of cable bulls and the USD basket in general for a plan further.

I just hope you are ready for all the ppl who are going to be telling you "about their losses".. lol


Cheers
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,647
  • Edited 6:57am May 12, 2013 6:46am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting Bones
Hey F do you see evening star ? I hope for retrace up .. {quote}
Hey B,

We probably could see a bounce off this Weekly support area after last week's move.

If you look at the DX we're at a tough resistance area on the weekly and monthly as well. If and when it goes there's not much between there and 85 which is going to open up a lot of downside on the GU AU crosses (and upside on EY GY UY). But before that happens, resistance needs to break (which may take a bit of work).

Outside of what's happening with BOJ, this is a USD trade at this point with sentiment leaning towards QE potentially scaling back. We're already seeing Treasury gains and there's quite a bit of chatter about the possibility of rate change coming as well.

Personally I'm mostly trading Yen crosses intraday and have a long term trade on UY from 84 that I've been building the past few months.

GU caught my interest as we approached the 50 line week of 4/28. The bullish close had inherent weakness. No close above the TL, no close above 50%, no touch of weekly resistance, so it was a no brainer to short it to the support confluence 5315 area.

Waiting on the open to size things up better for the coming week.
  • #340,648
  • May 12, 2013 6:51am May 12, 2013 6:51am
Cool that's how I see ,you have fundi knowledge which I don't dare ,got me in a lot of trouble before ,I have not the time or brain power lol
nice too see you




Quoting Fudomyo
{quote} Hey B, We probably could see a bounce on this support area after last week's move, but the stronger support is the 5200 area below it. If you look at the DX we're at a tough resistance area on the weekly and monthly as well. If and when it goes there's not much between there and 85 which is going to open up a lot of downside on the GU AU crosses (and upside on EY GY UY) Outside of what's happening with BOJ, this is a USD trade at this point with sentiment leaning towards QE potentially scaling back. We're already seeing Treasury gains and...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,649
  • May 12, 2013 7:07am May 12, 2013 7:07am
Quoting Bones
Cool that's how I see ,you have fundi knowledge which I don't dare ,got me in a lot of trouble before ,I have not the time or brain power lol nice too see you {quote}

Nice to see you too.

I mostly trade technicals for Forex. The fundamentals are harder to time, and definitely higher risk in the spot market in terms of exposure.
  • #340,650
  • May 12, 2013 7:26am May 12, 2013 7:26am
This is what I see "at the moment"

Excuse my Elliott if the numbering is off. I am still practicing the darn counting.. !!

Oh and don't start with the clutter......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-2013005111401-1b2.jpg Size: 183 KB
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,651
  • May 12, 2013 7:59am May 12, 2013 7:59am
monthly cable do you know the meaning of red herring ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd 12-5-13 d1 redherring.gif Size: 14 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,652
  • May 12, 2013 8:11am May 12, 2013 8:11am
or ,I think you can see candle week 1 is solid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd 12-5-13 general channel use.gif Size: 9 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,653
  • May 12, 2013 8:12am May 12, 2013 8:12am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} MONTHLY CANDLE IS NOT CLOSED YET!!! that candle can drop and form a MONTHLY BEARISH ENGULFING to counter that rebound candle in APRIL for all i care.... ill-b-back, you are better than this.... pls trade what the charts are telling you and so far. charts oonn weekly tellinng me its gona be another bearrissh week! that may potentially have us creating a bearish engullfing candle a month end... get ready for a retest of 1.48 low is what i am telling peoplee.. whether they like it or not... im pretty sure you're the same
Precisely, monthly candle is not closed yet and is therefore an unknown.

My posts reference PA that IS known, bullish monthly pin off long term support which I highlighted in my chart.
Bullish thrust in April that pierced and closed above local resistance turned support.

A bearish engulfing candle on it's own is good sign but needs to break support for confirmation which it hasn't done.
In 2012, I see at least 2 bearish weekly candles breaking the previous candle low but then failed to follow through. Why? because they didn't break support.

Current candle has now retraced to this support level and weekly has closed above it, so no confirmation "yet".

"At 1.4830, we also retested the channel broken last year" and have move nearly 800 pips off it.

Bullish patterns Gartley patterns on monthly, weekly and now 4 hourly.

I am watching bullish PA (monthly) off S/R, while looking at current weekly support levels including Fridays low and 52xx Neither of these have been broken yet.
I am referencing bullish Gartley Patterns on high timeframes and retested broken channels.
I am noting that no weekly support has been broken yet.

In a nut shell, I am reading precisely what my chart is showing me.

BTW, A channels exist on timeframes other than daily and until levels of support/Resistance are broken, we don't know where a channel actually exist or on what timeframe (as shown historically in red) on the weekly chart.

I could be wrong on this, but my guess is you have been waiting a number of months for this retrace.
Noticing that the 200ema is on the 50 fib, you have replayed the longer term shorting scenario over in your head quite a number of times.
Now that we are here and have bounced off, it's all you can see. (a bounce which too a week to occur - not the kind of selling action I would expect from such an important tech level) reminds me of profit taking actually)



Bones tried to make me feel uncomfortable by drawing my attention to bearish 1 hr PA for goodness sakes and for some reason prefers this to the obvious bullish monthly action off long term support.

but hey, we all see what we choose to see.

I don't enter trades based on particular levels just because they are reached, I look for signal and enter preferably with a stop tight stop, so if it fails, no big drama.

Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus


Timing of Wind-Down Is Uncertain, but Focus Is on Managing Unpredictable Market Expectations


Doesn't sound like the headline of a Fed looking to wind down stimulus anytime soon to me.

I hope everyone makes lots of pips this week.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly1.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly1.png Size: 28 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,654
  • May 12, 2013 8:16am May 12, 2013 8:16am
no I tried to help you ,only time will tell ,longs are prob good next week anyway when see see bearish pa you will be ready

whist you listen and learned last year ...
Ill be straight/frank the tls you draw are in the middle of nowhere (yellow one),tls an art ,not reliable unless completely obvious
or with confluence

Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Bones tried to make me feel uncomfortable by drawing my attention to bearish 1 hr PA for goodness sakes and for some reason prefers this to the obvious bullish monthly action off long term support. {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,655
  • May 12, 2013 8:18am May 12, 2013 8:18am
And note the position of the 200 SMA on weekly (and daily actually), nice confluence with 61.8 fib and TL's which myself and others have highlighted earlier
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,656
  • May 12, 2013 8:18am May 12, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Bones
monthly cable do you know the meaning of red herring ? {image}
i think , the queen doesnt like to see this
  • #340,657
  • May 12, 2013 8:20am May 12, 2013 8:20am
Quoting Bones
no I tried to help you ,only time will tell ,longs are prob good next week anyway when see see bearish pa you will be ready whist you listen and learned last year ... {quote}
Yes I know you were trying to help but "how does this make you feel" were your words not mine.

I know you have a good heart dude, I was just using it for a little affect
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,658
  • May 12, 2013 8:23am May 12, 2013 8:23am
Quoting Bones
no I tried to help you ,only time will tell ,longs are prob good next week anyway when see see bearish pa you will be ready whist you listen and learned last year ... Ill be straight/frank the tls you draw are in the middle of nowhere (yellow one),tls an art ,not reliable unless completely obvious or with confluence {quote}
You mean confluence with weekly support and 38.2 fib?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,659
  • May 12, 2013 8:25am May 12, 2013 8:25am
11.25, I'm off to bed, have a great week all
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #340,660
  • May 12, 2013 8:27am May 12, 2013 8:27am
many heroes....... yippieeeee....many of......as I said wordsss.....
not euphoria follower
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