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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #340,281
  • May 9, 2013 7:54am May 9, 2013 7:54am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yes, good point lol...
This is the chart why im weary if im a bull... the fact that we have been in a downwards channel without realizing... the upside move will only see us retesting an already broken trendline about 100 pips above us right now...
where as the downside sees us continuing to create lower lows below 1.48xx, potentially us seeing 1.45 created in the medium term....

the risk reward to me for shorting in the medium term is a 100 pip drawdown if it goes up to retest broken uptrend... vs a potential 600 pip down move to test the low of the bearish channel....

This broken uptrend we have had is the reason why i suspect the 1.54 support that has held GBPUSD up for the last 3 years, may have turned into a resistance. and all we are seeing right now is merely a 150ish pip over flow as we are testing this 1.54 on a monthly.... this thing could very well come down below 1.54 to close the month confirming it as a previously strong support turned Resistance....
soo be cautious.

Tides are changing in my view, and we could see that with the recent dumping of Gold... a trader asked me the other day that if i suspect GBPUSD to go down, it means i am betting in USD strength..... and yes i am... but he also pinpointed that if USD strength should happen then Equities should be in weakness as a matter of correlation...
but what i realized is that the momenum in US equities bullishness is actually slowing down... along with recent Gold Dumping back ot the USD suggests we maybe in for a surprise by the FED, the possibility that the era of free money at incredibly low interest rate may come to an end... and people are dumping gold because it seems that US interest rate has no space for further decrease, and only up it can go...
in my view Gold has the potential to go down to 1200 and this would also bring equities in US down, giving that USD a big boost... the repatriation to US paper notes is not far now...

And just couple minutes ago... US has yet another fall in unemployment claims... meaning the jobs market in US is in recovery.. something the FED is really concerned about since 2008, the jobs market... and the fact that jobs market is in the recovery, puts pressure on the FED to end their QE plans.... the end of QE is near... so dont bet on more of it unless the US economy suddenly turns sour....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130509.1251.gmt.gbpusd.monthly.png Size: 20 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #340,282
  • May 9, 2013 8:11am May 9, 2013 8:11am
the smell of 1.5500 just turned to feel... we are so close to it.. 30 pips away we could actually FEEL it.... AHAHAH
Update 15 pips away.... oh nav's getting burned...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #340,283
  • May 9, 2013 8:17am May 9, 2013 8:17am
Quoting fxtyrant
the smell of 1.5500 just turned to feel... we are so close to it.. 30 pips away we could actually FEEL it.... AHAHAH
target acquired..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,284
  • May 9, 2013 8:17am May 9, 2013 8:17am
Hey guys. Cable pending sell @ 1,5554.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #340,285
  • May 9, 2013 8:19am May 9, 2013 8:19am
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} target acquired..
this is actually just the beginning of the bears dude..... all that wick up and the interest rate on hold not being able to break above... all signs showing big money is in bearish mode...

in fact got to say something to NAV... Yo Nav if you seen my charts.... your theory on how the market is not moving up or moving down at 1.55/56 doesnt apply.... the sucker zone is not at 1.55/56 area...
it is down below when we tested the daily EMA 55 around 1.53/1.5350 was the sucker zone or Williams %R 50 zone... where bears get caught entering short too early... but 1.55/56 is not entering early....

Look at this chart and you will see that 1.53/5350 area was actually the sucker zone which caused some retail bears to enter short a bit too early because it was the 50 zone on the Williams %R... But shorting at 1.55/56 regions is shorting at teh TOP of the Williams %R zone...
together with CCI confirming a bearish divergence, cant say that this is not a potential top...
Charts dont lie....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130509.1324.gmt.gbpusd.daily.png Size: 45 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #340,286
  • May 9, 2013 8:24am May 9, 2013 8:24am
Quoting masoud_s
sell stop 1.55307 tp 1= 1.55 tp2=1.5456
tp1 +30
  • #340,287
  • May 9, 2013 8:25am May 9, 2013 8:25am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} this is actually the beginning of the bears dude..... all that wick up and the interest rate on hold not being able to break above... all signs showing big money is in bearish mode...
well its kind of my trading personality, i like to take it step by step.. i am sure that won't bother you right...?
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,288
  • May 9, 2013 8:27am May 9, 2013 8:27am
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} well its kind of my trading personality, i like to take it step by step.. i am sure that won't bother you right...?
yep that fine
but look back to the post again, i showed why it is only the beginning according to the williams percentage range being in the 0-20 zone meaning at the top.....

i feel bad for some bears who shorted down at 1.53 ie the sucker zone or the 50 zone on the williams percentage range...

BTW feel free to start movign SL lower and lower as GBPUSD moves lower... so you dont get a shock move back up to wipe out your positions in green...

for my short at 1.5580 im intriged to put a sl at 1.5550 now so i protect my profits.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,289
  • May 9, 2013 8:28am May 9, 2013 8:28am
Quoting baherhosni
I can almost smell 5500 already.. but targeting 5530..
indeed..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,290
  • May 9, 2013 8:34am May 9, 2013 8:34am
Here is an update of what I'm looking at. If we can get through this LTL then we possibly have this potential bullish bat that could lead us back up to test it again. Off for the rest of the morning. Enjoy. have fun, make a great day and may we all make bank!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4hr.gif Size: 80 KB
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  • #340,291
  • May 9, 2013 8:34am May 9, 2013 8:34am
its aliiiiiiveeee... boy do i hate a slow market...
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #340,292
  • May 9, 2013 8:35am May 9, 2013 8:35am
Lets face it you see a swing point on d1 , target much lower,rising channel it's no good
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,293
  • May 9, 2013 8:39am May 9, 2013 8:39am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} this is actually just the beginning of the bears dude..... all that wick up and the interest rate on hold not being able to break above... all signs showing big money is in bearish mode... in fact got to say something to NAV... Yo Nav if you seen my charts.... your theory on how the market is not moving up or moving down at 1.55/56 doesnt apply.... the sucker zone is not at 1.55/56 area... it is down below when we tested the daily EMA 55 around 1.53/1.5350 was the sucker zone or Williams %R 50 zone... where bears get caught entering...
I like it... I feel it!!!
  • #340,294
  • May 9, 2013 8:41am May 9, 2013 8:41am
Quoting baherhosni
its aliiiiiiveeee... boy do i hate a slow market...
Boy the bear is alive...... and boy does it have a big appetite.... from the weekly pivot and down to the weekly support in 1 H4 candle... brilliant...
and guess what... its gona stall around 1.5490/1.5500 and attract some intraday buyers to come in, but i wont be fooled.... looking at H4 i see why some intraday buyers might come in at this level... but this is a SUCKER ZONE!!!!! dont be fooled to enter now! LOL
i love the sucker zone theory... prevents me from entering in a middle position and boy did i learned to not be in the middle of anything....

this baby has the juice to go down to 1.5410 Weekly support 2 now and that would give H4 Williams %R in the bottoming zone. conincidentaly 1.5410 is not far off the EMA 200 of the H4 chart too... so that should provide the REAL SUPPORT and not 1.5500

but as we talk about Daily... 1.5400 area is not the bottom according to the Williams % range.... it might be a short term bottom on H4 but not on the daily ahahah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130509.1337.gmt.gbpusd.h4.png Size: 41 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #340,295
  • May 9, 2013 8:44am May 9, 2013 8:44am
Quoting Bones
Lets face it you see a swing point on d1 , target much lower,rising channel it's no good
not to rub it in someones face but whoever told us we're wrong is the one whos wrong.... but i better not brag too much...
smack me a little bit and let me be humble for a sec...

now i know that guy well, and hes a very long term trader so i have no doubts he will profit on those longs but... not now... just not now... that low of 1.48xx has too much juicy orders to be absorbed first
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,296
  • May 9, 2013 8:45am May 9, 2013 8:45am
It's going to be engulfing

Btw think I already said aud usd support will go
after the up test today
Big fall






Quoting Bones
already you can see an engulfing on w1 now {quote} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,297
  • May 9, 2013 8:50am May 9, 2013 8:50am
Hey fx on mobile today very busy ,but also
I don't think cable below 15240
I see cable potential bullish after pull back
Lets see what bears have


Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} not to rub it in someones face but whoever told us we're wrong is the one whos wrong.... but i better not brag too much... smack me a little bit and let me be humble for a sec... now i know that guy well, and hes a very long term trader so i have no doubts he will profit on those longs but... not now... just not now... that low of 1.48xx has too much juicy orders to be absorbed first
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #340,298
  • May 9, 2013 8:50am May 9, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Bones
It's going to be engulfing Btw think I already said aud usd support will go after the up test today Big fall {quote}
btw i totally agree with you on AUDUSD falling... but i think we can also focus on NZDUSD.. NZD is going to fall much faster now... as i see a potential rally back up on AUDNZD....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,299
  • May 9, 2013 8:52am May 9, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Bones
Hey fx on mobile today very busy ,but also I don't think cable below 15240 I see cable potential bullish after pull back Lets see what bears have {quote}
you have 1.5240? i have 1.5185 as the monthly support though... and i think that might be where cable is heading for a rebound...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #340,300
  • May 9, 2013 8:57am May 9, 2013 8:57am
closed my sell at 1.55 , we have a butterfly in the m15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bat.png Size: 61 KB
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