Circular Trendlines

EUR Update

I dont usually post after bad forecast, but I will do it for your request.

I really goofed up on my last one,

but right now because it powered through the center of the circle, which is usually the behaviour if the resistance of the center is broken,
it will continue to the other end of the perimeter, but no buy right now for me.

You can argue that it has reached the limits of the dotted circle in up movement, but I doubt that the dotted circle will have any influence.

On the H4 we are still in a sell zone, but the way that the thrust has exploded from 3050, I can see it finding support at 3120 and continue its upward movement until it reaches 3265.

Myself I have several sells at 3120 which I am keeping it open, I will either come at break even on them within a day or so, or be profitable in couple of weeks.

The 3120 zone is a critical zone if it gets there. Behaviour can be mixed, that is the prime reason for not going on a buy right now.

thanks for reply what you mean right now. I was asking because I have opened 3 sell trades on 1.3125 1.3155 a 1.3175

Close the 3175 one if you are profitable,
The 3155 one you can close at break even or you might get 10-12 pips of profit on it, but it has a chance to be profitable.

Up to you whether you want keep the 3125 one open or not, I have mine open at 3120 region, but I trade very small lots with large stoplosses and a 20-25 pip target. usually my stoploss is at least a 100 pip with risk factor of 2%-4%.

EUR/USD Outlook

We could re-adjust the circle from yesterday that showed 3260 region to 3240, give and take 20-30 pips. This goes congruent with the behaviour that is being exhibited now, which looks like a strong rejection from the 3240 level. The trendlines are drawn to show the median line in blue as the major obstacle in the upward movement.

Given today is one day before the third quarter,
and the H1 RSI is maxed out at 80 level,
and the perimeter to perimeter move is completed
There is room to conclude that a turnaround on the hourly time frame is about to begin.

This turnaround would go at a minimum to the T2 trendline shown

EUR/USD Outlook

The incredible drop that started yesterday from 3241 is definetly going through the grey zone of the shown circle with quite a bit of force, this thrust is going to clear the grey zone in no time and make the move a perimeter to perimeter move ending at the lows of 3000.

I have not checked other time frames yet, but was quite surprised this morning when I woke up to see the furiosity of the thrust downwards. I will update the other time frame shortly

EUR Update

We are currently at the blue line, but the blue line is not going to hold, simply because there are no subdivisions and hesitation signs being observed on the lower time frames around it, so it will break. Now the question is whether this thrust downwards will be a reversal on the daily time frame or not.

Because we have not reached at least a 123.6 price extension level of the move from 2755 to 3200 yet, I would be hesitant to call it a reversal on the daily time frame.

The black circle drawn shows roghly a region between 2950 to 3000 where we could see a slow down of price action and signs of reversal. Depending on how you draw the circles to cover some false breaks the grey dotted circle is another circle which also encompasses most of the support and resistance zones. This circle also gives a approximate zone very close to the 3000 level.

I would wait for at least an hour or so to see what the market is doing before giving my next update.

EUR Update

The H2 time frame is also pointing to a support zone of around 2980-3000. For today we migh experience some resistance around 3060-3080 zone within the "Grey Zone" of the circle in the previous post, but we should be hitting the lows of 3000 within a few days from now.

anyway very nice analysis

good work

EUR/USD Outlook

Finally after 3 days of stalling between 3070 and 3130, this pair is making some moves. The most important part of the puzzle to say whether we will go up to 3380 or not is the 5 wave that has unfolded from May 1st to May 3rd on the H1 time frame.

These 5 waves create a impulse wave, and impulse waves do not necessarily form all the time from a relative high going down. In most cases these 5 waves form when we are in a initial stages of a turnaround, so even though we had a large spike of 40 pips that broke the range that we were stuck in for 3 days, that does not necessairly mean that we are going all the way up to 3380 level. We are currently at the 61.8 retracement level of the entire drop from 3241 to 3023, which is still an acceptable level as far as the main trend going down is concerned.


On the H4 time frame we have the T1 line that forms part of the median band shown by the blue lines, this line has offered a good size resistance in the past, but on the H1 time frame we have a situation where its very highly probable that we will have a spike up and price action make a perimeter to perimeter move within the black circle. For this to happen the movement has to be really fast, if its not fast enough then chances are that the grey region of this circle will push prices down, so having said that, it means that you can go with very tight stoplosses for a buy position at around 3160, and sell if it goes below that level. Target for up move is 3380 levels

EUR/USD Outlook

At the openning of the EUR session we dropped below 3150, and as mentioned previously yesterday this drop means the sellers are in control.

A retracement to the 3000 level was being expected since last week, the delay is almost over and after the rather huge drop at about an hour ago price action is very close to that level.

We have not reached a fibonacci price extension of the drop from 3240-3030 yet, but the first buy position, if any, would be 2950 followed by the second buy position at 2900. At 2950 we have a perimeter to perimeter move shown within the circle on the H4 chart.

For now its still a selling zone.

EUR/USD Outlook

The trend is still down on this pair until we get at least 2 touches to the T1 line on the RSI, or we have the T1 broken followed by a second touch. Its only after the second touch that we can go long. For now we are still selling at a good retracement. The 3020-3040 region will be a region to watch for any sell opportunities.

EUR/USD Outlook

Eur in the middle of a small retracement till the 3050 region. short term sentiment is a buy and long term sentiment is a sell that will show itself around May 16/17

EUR/USD Outlook

After 1 day of activity around the 2960-3020 level it looks like more and more the 3060 zone that was mentioned yesterday, will have less chance of being reached at the moment.

Given the current behaviour, the last section of the drop that started from 3060 region is looking for a 5 wave unfolding pattern to happen. If this was not the case then price action should have sprouted upwards fairly quickly.

Also the shown circle is most probably the circle where action is abiding its perimeter.

The probabilities run high that the 3000 level will not be breached very decisively and 3020 will be the interim resistance zone. We are looking for further drops to the 138.2 price extension of the 3190-2934 which is around the 2836 zone.

My point of vision

Continue

I see what you are saying, the ping pong phenomenon is difficult to judge to see which direction it will go, at least it is for me, maybe you have figured a way.

My experience with figuring out whether the south pole of some circle is going to be broken or the northpole of a differnt circle is going to be penetrated in a squeenze basically surrounds the strength of a circle. My current theory is that the bigger circles on the daily and weekly time frame exert more pressure than the ones on H1 time frame, so direction is dictated by them, when it comes to macro analysis on the M5 and M15 time frames, then I basically look at the fib levels where its supposed to reach and see whether there is a circle with good enough strength to hold it. The fib levels are whats being targeted in most cases that I have found, so the pole(s) of several circles get broken just to reach that fib level. This is true specially with impulses in the impulse season (September to November and Januray to April).

Right now from May to End of August the best way to trade is to check the H4 and Daily RSI and see whether at the time that they max out, a circle of any kind makes sense or not. The 2 go toghetehr. Currently we are at 2922 and I expected a reversal at around 2860 in my previous post :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post6679518

The revesal happened a bit lower at 2840, but close enough. I dont think the reversal is going to break the 3000 level YET. I see a maximum of 2980-2990, but I am waiting for few confirmations to post a chart.

Kambooj, thank for your reply!
My little overview with your permission

some words more...

Expect to drop

the price drop down. Continue