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EUR/CHF

  • #10,441
  • Apr 27, 2013 9:17am Apr 27, 2013 9:17am
Quoting holmes
I don' understand; since 2004 circulated money in Swiss has risen for 50 percent, however; price of gold has risen about 400 percent in this period, so if this amount of gold was the reserve for 20 percent of balance sheets it must be about 60 percent of nowadays balance sheets even if no holding added in the 10 year period, so why does Jordan say the SNB might be under pressure if needed to keep this 20 percent as mandatory?
Where did you get all those numbers? Are you sure that 20% of SNB's balance sheet was backed by gold reserves in 2004?
  • #10,442
  • Apr 28, 2013 6:50am Apr 28, 2013 6:50am
Guys: what does the new italian govt mean for Eur/Chf? Presumably positive, right? What about the comparatively high probability of a ECB rate cut on Thursday? Negative, right? So where do we go from here at Sydney opening? Up or down or sideways? What are your thoughts?
  • #10,443
  • Apr 28, 2013 2:25pm Apr 28, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting Bluedolphin
Guys: what does the new italian govt mean for Eur/Chf? Presumably positive, right? What about the comparatively high probability of a ECB rate cut on Thursday? Negative, right? So where do we go from here at Sydney opening? Up or down or sideways? What are your thoughts?
it must open where it closed maybe 5 pips sideways, but the effect of italian gov. is so much more than ecb rate cut. Italy Gov. means more stable euro which matters and the rate cut is again for stability in euro area which again will have + effect on eur/chf.
  • #10,444
  • Apr 28, 2013 3:12pm Apr 28, 2013 3:12pm
I guess the risk of ECB cut is negative swap from brokers (those not already charging negative).
  • #10,445
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:13am Apr 29, 2013 1:13am
Watch support levels 1.2275-80 and 1.2235-40 to LONG. Good Exit today 1.2340-45
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,446
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:56am Apr 29, 2013 1:56am
Quoting J.Clinton
Watch support levels 1.2275-80 and 1.2235-40 to LONG. Good Exit today 1.2340-45
seems frozen in a tight range
  • #10,447
  • Apr 29, 2013 1:57am Apr 29, 2013 1:57am
Quoting holmes
{quote} seems frozen in a tight range
but 1.2190 would be great if it ever gets there.
  • #10,448
  • Apr 29, 2013 5:46am Apr 29, 2013 5:46am
No problem in tight range but in its price Wouldn't it be GREATEST if it ever goes to 1.2010 and stay there for 5 years in a tight range of 20-30pip?

I bet all BULLS would be more happy than seeing 1.3 Make another big wealth from the peg SNB defend

In the meantime, some uptrend channels would be Goooood to trade like 1.2235-40 and 1.2195-00, for some 30 pip range(1.2275-80 had been used today, take profit, throw and to the next level)
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,449
  • Apr 29, 2013 5:53am Apr 29, 2013 5:53am
Quoting J.Clinton
No problem in tight range but in its price Wouldn't it be GREATEST if it ever goes to 1.2010 and stay there for 5 years in a tight range of 20-30pip? I bet all BULLS would be more happy than seeing 1.3 Make another big wealth from the peg SNB defend In the meantime, some uptrend channels would be Goooood to trade like 1.2235-40 and 1.2195-00, for some 30 pip range(1.2275-80 had been used today, take profit, throw and to the next level)
the rally was not for eurchf it was for the euro, if eurusd falls then we can get the bottom of eurchf and the best entry point.
  • #10,450
  • Apr 29, 2013 7:52pm Apr 29, 2013 7:52pm
I don' think eurchf goes lower than this before before benchmark day, on the other hand it will start gaining and will make new highs in these 2-3 days, so good time to load longs.
  • #10,451
  • Apr 29, 2013 11:31pm Apr 29, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting holmes
{quote} the rally was not for eurchf it was for the euro, if eurusd falls then we can get the bottom of eurchf and the best entry point.
You did not get it right dude. EU Up does not mean EC Up. EU can be flying to 1.35 and you see EC 1.21 or 1.22. Even when EU drops EC may be steady moving sideways or slowly down but no drop.
The main factor in EC is Swiss Franc Strong or Weak. When UC, GC and some Franc crosses drop hard you will not see EC going up.
For the EC to go up, Swiss Franc must be weak all over the market against all or most currencies. Found that it does not happen unless the dollar and euro are both strong. That happens when we have neither Risk Aversion nor Risk Appetite.

EC will drop to 1.2245-50 or 1.2235, before going up to some 1.23. It might not go up even before 1.220* if 1.2250 turns resistance.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,452
  • Apr 29, 2013 11:41pm Apr 29, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} You did not get it right dude. EU Up does not mean EC Up. EU can be flying to 1.35 and you see EC 1.21 or 1.22. Even when EU drops EC may be steady moving sideways or slowly down but no drop. The main factor in EC is Swiss Franc Strong or Weak. When UC, GC and some Franc crosses drop hard you will not see EC going up. For the EC to go up, Swiss Franc must be weak all over the market against all or most currencies. Found that it does not happen unless the dollar and euro are both strong. That happens when we have neither Risk Aversion nor...
thx for your explanation, however I think it is just the SNB policy that drives the pair not the strength of other currencies, 200-500 pips is nothing to have an effect on Swiss economy and if it met 1.25x it means we will see 1.3 and 1.4 but it will move gradually not at once so for any H it makes there will be a low but some lows are not to be seen again for example 1.2010- 1.2070- and for now 1.2130 therefore I am waiting to see new high after 1.26 which could be 1.3190
  • #10,453
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:30am Apr 30, 2013 2:30am
I hope we get to 1.2190
  • #10,454
  • Apr 30, 2013 8:04pm Apr 30, 2013 8:04pm
Tighten your belts. We may see 1.2195-00 or 1.2210 least tomorrow after my today Million Asking on 1.2235 were not enough for more than 1.226 spike
Good Entry in the 1.220* price for some 1.2250 + Tp I think
By the way, 1.2165-70 would not be a far goal if we see tomorrow same drops like was today.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,455
  • May 1, 2013 7:30am May 1, 2013 7:30am
eurchf unchanged, though with this move in eu from 1.3050 to 1.3240 we should have seen a bit more gains in eur/chf (1.224 to 1.2245).. seems to be only dollar weakness
  • #10,456
  • May 1, 2013 11:10pm May 1, 2013 11:10pm
EC avoiding the entrance into 1.2190-1.2120 area (price to stay in this range for sometime, coming I think) before Mr. Draghi conference, because it will become very bearish. 1.2195-05 must not be difficult to test today.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,457
  • Edited May 2, 2013 1:16am May 1, 2013 11:22pm | Edited May 2, 2013 1:16am
Quoting Caa
eurchf unchanged, though with this move in eu from 1.3050 to 1.3240 we should have seen a bit more gains in eur/chf (1.224 to 1.2245).. seems to be only dollar weakness
Go back to my post number 10451. The worst that may happen to any trader is waiting for a good entry point like EC 1.2195-05 but it never comes, instead we see 1.2215 that corresponds to nothing but just a 4 hr. green bullish candle low of a 9 days ago.
EC an example of pairs that stops and continues most of the times on anywhere points, enter a Long and leave maybe the best options for some EC traders who like to wait wait wait even if we get back into trading the 1.2190-1.2120 for some months.
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,458
  • May 2, 2013 2:09am May 2, 2013 2:09am
EURCHF H4
may this hidden divergence work?
long position if downward trendline breaks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf h4.gif Size: 68 KB
Yahoo Id: arash_yashil
  • #10,459
  • May 2, 2013 2:19am May 2, 2013 2:19am
Quoting arashmidos
EURCHF H4 may this hidden divergence work? long position if downward trendline breaks {image}
I prefer to long gbp/chf or aus/chf but eur/chf is too lazy and I don'think it breaks 1.2190, 1.2240 range for this week.
  • #10,460
  • May 2, 2013 3:57am May 2, 2013 3:57am
Quoting arashmidos
EURCHF H4 may this hidden divergence work? long position if downward trendline breaks {image}
You looked at the small details, not aware of the whole picture. You are assuming the 3 candles to be the bottom of a 'supposed' triangle, that might become fact only if we least see 1.2240 but till then it's just an assumption.
You're not aware that your chart shows a downtrend channel, the top of it now is 1.2240, the bottom is 1.2165
Longing on current price is like risking 60 pip for 15 pip('unless' price breaks 1.224 up).
1.2195-00 the conservative and logical choice between both probabilities
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
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