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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #339,781
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:43pm Apr 30, 2013 12:43pm
That is what I mean by a failure. I am looking at the price action to tell me if we have a failure then I will add to my short.
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I woudnt add in the middle of intraday range on a breakout day. below 1.5500 would hint about upcoming capitulation for bulls, but the real failure is below 5466 - a tick below and you can add on a bounces
  • #339,782
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:53pm Apr 30, 2013 12:53pm
Their are several risk events this week. Most of the events will try and push it north. How it reacts will tell if we have the top forming. That is how I read it.
Quoting ferreira1239
hi chaps there is some major news on thursday that may force a upward trend and take out some of the SL's. Is anyone else considering this or are most of you on the technicals and ignoring the fundimentals?
  • #339,783
  • Apr 30, 2013 7:34pm Apr 30, 2013 7:34pm
Quoting Robby
Their are several risk events this week. Most of the events will try and push it north. How it reacts will tell if we have the top forming. That is how I read it.{quote}
I have been following your posts with interest. I agree with you on the downward movement of this pair. The monthly and the weekly charts are set up for a wave 3 right now, on the technical side. One thing I know from trading on the Forex market is that the market is a living, breathing, organic entity, and the the technical side is based largely on human emotions. Because it is easy to predict the emotions of others based on certain factors, we can constantly see the market unfolding in similar patterns. Hence, the Elliot waves and dozens of indicators we all use here. For me, I think a basic understanding of how the market moves is essential for being a successful trader, and the more indicators you have on your chart the more clouded your view of the market will be. Technical analysis is great, but it must not be favored at the expense of the fundamental side. Aside from that I see the AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD setting up for a long downward movement. Any thoughts?
  • #339,784
  • Apr 30, 2013 8:01pm Apr 30, 2013 8:01pm
Right now looks like a safe time to be buying. 10-15 pip stop can be used and we should be higher in 4 hours.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #339,785
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:56pm Apr 30, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting zusch
Right now looks like a safe time to be buying. 10-15 pip stop can be used and we should be higher in 4 hours.
And if we can squeeze out another 200+ pips north this week, a big sell next week could be on the cards
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #339,786
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:08pm Apr 30, 2013 10:08pm
Yes you are right! If it was just technical then we would just have computers doing it with no human interaction. The fundamentals are where the gray area comes in. You can say the gov's all tell the truth and the numbers are the REAL numbers. Personally I do not think that, this is only because I have been doing this for 20+ years.

For the GBP we are setup for wave 3 to the down side but I think their are some companies who are stuck and do not want the GBP to drop so it will be held up until they are out or have reversed. Then it will be released and market forces will take the pair down.

The problem with the AUD is it's heavily influenced by the oil / gas / gold / silver / copper markets. So an avg of all that has to be factored into the AUD pair. Since the data shows their is less traffic going in and out of AUD. IE less of the oil / gold / silver / copper leaving the country that would relate to lower price on AUD but AUD is doing better than GBP, EUR and USD. Since they have activity inside AUD their is money flowing into AUD to take advantage of this. Why you see AUD going sideways but this pair should be down around the NZD area of .85 or so would be fair value.

NZD is like a funding currency. Why it is ranged bounded kind of like the AUD but NZD dose not have the inside help that the AUD has currently. So people and companies are taking money that is cheap and placing it in short term gov notes. Why you see the moves on AUD before and after gov bond auctions. Money moving in and out. This is removed and this pair should drop too because their is no reason for the pair to be up this high.

EUR is a cluster fxxx but it is basically Germany for evaluation. The german value is not 1.3x and it's not 1.x either. It's more like sub 1. What is the add of the other countries? Most of them are not an add they are a subtraction. So that is kind of hard to answer but I do not think the EUR is at fare value, and I think fare value on the EUR would be below 1. As far as I see the EUR from a technical point of view. We are in a very large wedge (monthly/weekly) and on this current wave up it should end some were north of 1.35 to 1.38 depending on were everyone wants to turn the market but their a small corrections going up and that is what I am after because I want to be setup for the next leg down. I see the EUR dropping down out of the wedge and heading below fare value. One thing I have learned over the years is the market will always over shoot what is fare. This is due to greed. So if fare value is .75 you will get some over shoot of that. What the % will be I do not know or if the fare value of the EUR is below 1. But the EUR dose not really do anything going for it out side of Germany. No countries exporting goods like AUD or CAD, basically most of them use more than they add to the EUR, so I do not know what that add is for the EUR. Also the GBP is kind of tied to the EUR because they do so much with it. So goes the EUR also the GBP has an reaction to it because money wise they are kind of linked.

Cliff notes version: GBP/USD ready for wave 3 down; EUR/USD still moving up on current leg to the top down line but getting near; AUD/USD going sideways in a band of 10(+/-) cents; NZD/USD going sideways in a unknown band size; Best thing to happen here is all of the pairs to get sync and make the move together to the downside as the USD/JPY makes it move down before the BOJ comes back in a few years to buy it back up again!

This is just my opinion!

Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} I have been following your posts with interest. I agree with you on the downward movement of this pair. The monthly and the weekly charts are set up for a wave 3 right now, on the technical side. One thing I know from trading on the Forex market is that the market is a living, breathing, organic entity, and the the technical side is based largely on human emotions. Because it is easy to predict the emotions of others based on certain factors, we can constantly see the market unfolding in similar patterns. Hence, the Elliot waves and dozens...
  • #339,787
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:19pm Apr 30, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting Robby
Yes you are right! If it was just technical then we would just have computers doing it with no human interaction. The fundamentals are where the gray area comes in. You can say the gov's all tell the truth and the numbers are the REAL numbers. Personally I do not think that, this is only because I have been doing this for 20+ years. For the GBP we are setup for wave 3 to the down side but I think their are some companies who are stuck and do not want the GBP to drop so it will be held up until they are out or have reversed. Then it will be released...

Some good points here i agree with most of it. I also have become aware that many pairs trend the same direction for a certain period of time , then they reverse and do the opposite. Sounds like you have a good mix of tech/fund analysis. The hard part for me is weeding through all the indoctrinated information on the fundamental side to separate whats true and false. Cheers to you and have a good day!
  • #339,788
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:35pm Apr 30, 2013 10:35pm
If you can find the lead one of the group then you can load up on the other pairs and make a killing. That is very hard to find out who is in the lead and who is the last one. What order in which they are following each other. Anyone in here knows how to figure that one out I would really REALLY like to hear how to figure that out! Anyways, trying to figure out what is true and what is false for me I take the data of what comes in and goes out of the country then what local companies are doing inside the country. Are they missing their numbers or are they making their numbers? If you do not have that info then look at hire / layoff. If the companies are laying off people and they are missing their numbers. The gov put out econ numbers saying they are making jobs then this is false so do not use that in making fundamental decision. If the gov come out and said they lost jobs then use the data because it's true. It is in sync with what the companies are doing. If the gov is telling you they have out of this world GDP but the companies are laying off people then you know GDP is false. Data has to sync up with what the companies do. So you see the companies suck then you see their sales drop off then you see them laying off people the gov data has to show this. If it dose not then it's false data. Same goes if the companies are all doing very good and all you see are ad's to hire, sales growing, then the gov data will show it is doing good. If it dose not then the data is bad and drop it. That is how I go through the different countries data to figure out what is true and what is false!
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Some good points here i agree with most of it. I also have become aware that many pairs trend the same direction for a certain period of time , then they reverse and do the opposite. Sounds like you have a good mix of tech/fund analysis. The hard part for me is weeding through all the indoctrinated information on the fundamental side to separate whats true and false. Cheers to you and have a good day!
  • #339,789
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:49pm Apr 30, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting Robby
If you can find the lead one of the group then you can load up on the other pairs and make a killing. That is very hard to find out who is in the lead and who is the last one. What order in which they are following each other. Anyone in here knows how to figure that one out I would really REALLY like to hear how to figure that out! Anyways, trying to figure out what is true and what is false for me I take the data of what comes in and goes out of the country then what local companies are doing inside the country. Are they missing their numbers or...
Hmmmmm.......well im not sure I can identify a lead pair either, but in my experience the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD tend to trend the same direction, and the USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY tend to trend the same direction. The Euro being so heavily traded has distorted chart patterns, while the GBP/USD is my favorite pair and provides better patterns for market analysis in my opinion. I used to trade upwards of 25 pairs at the same time, and most of them I had separated in groups that tended to trend the same direction. Don't misunderstand me though, I didn't just trade based on that information. I was constantly looking at my charts, watching news reports, studying economics, and lacking a social life due to the desire to make money every day. How bout you?
  • #339,790
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:52pm Apr 30, 2013 10:52pm
Quoting Robby
If you can find the lead one of the group then you can load up on the other pairs and make a killing. That is very hard to find out who is in the lead and who is the last one. What order in which they are following each other. Anyone in here knows how to figure that one out I would really REALLY like to hear how to figure that out! Anyways, trying to figure out what is true and what is false for me I take the data of what comes in and goes out of the country then what local companies are doing inside the country. Are they missing their numbers or...
By the way sounds like pretty sound fundamental analysis.....what you said.
  • #339,791
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:10pm Apr 30, 2013 11:10pm
Gbp,Eur,Nzd and Aud basically all move together and Chf, Cad and Jpy seem to move together also. But on big moves they all seem to sync up. When that happens then you can make alot of $$$$ because they will pick a lead and they will all line up behind the lead one. Last time I saw it happen was a few years ago when all the 4hr - 6hr time frames sync up.

Well I only deal with the major ones and cad,aud and maybe the nzd but only at extrema EXTREMA levels were I can see a parabolic move ending.
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Hmmmmm.......well im not sure I can identify a lead pair either, but in my experience the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD tend to trend the same direction, and the USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY tend to trend the same direction. The Euro being so heavily traded has distorted chart patterns, while the GBP/USD is my favorite pair and provides better patterns for market analysis in my opinion. I used to trade upwards of 25 pairs at the same time, and most of them I had separated in groups that tended to trend the same direction. Don't...
  • #339,792
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:17pm Apr 30, 2013 11:17pm
Well I try my best to not get tricked by the magic shows that's being put on to try and hide the truth! Sometime it's hard since more and more of the data is non truth and very little of it is truthful. So you get cough believing something that is false. That is why I run it through what companies are doing because if they lie then someone comes to give them new set of silver bracelets that they really do not want. So for the most part the company data is 80% correct. That is what I use for my gov filter to see if they are telling the truth or not.
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} By the way sounds like pretty sound fundamental analysis.....what you said.
  • #339,793
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:51pm Apr 30, 2013 11:51pm
Until some goooooood retrace correction to the 1.5420s, GU not the best to long right now, instead short on the 1.557* and 1.5605 (50%Fibo)
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #339,794
  • May 1, 2013 12:00am May 1, 2013 12:00am
Just update , still posing up for 5609/30 limit , limit for up remains at 5517 , 5498 or better say 5467 . broken any can have a top failure start at least before final confirmation by 5467 for next supports 5342 and 24 .so let it take the fullest bull action before a probable failure if , so a daily level spike up towards 5600 & sellers again come into action , a big wick at top.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #339,795
  • May 1, 2013 12:42am May 1, 2013 12:42am
today's outlook for cable ...
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If you are brave enough to control your emotions, you can trade well....
  • #339,796
  • May 1, 2013 1:16am May 1, 2013 1:16am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} And if we can squeeze out another 200+ pips north this week, a big sell next week could be on the cards
I couldn't make a prediction for next week until I see where we close this week, but anything is possible I suppose. This pair proved me wrong big time when I was shorting under 1.5 and made a nice monthly pinbar. Then was followed up by a nice continuation month in April my bias for this month is to the long side basically until June.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #339,797
  • May 1, 2013 1:42am May 1, 2013 1:42am
looks like GU will go 5600 today
  • #339,798
  • May 1, 2013 2:02am May 1, 2013 2:02am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{image}
still...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #339,799
  • Edited 2:55am May 1, 2013 2:27am | Edited 2:55am
5578/83 is my sweet selling spot for 5380's

If it retraces to 5515/1 first than 5604 may be the next stop and reversal point
5617 is another one and last in this sequence
..and 5636 if news will inspire some maniac flying
69
  • #339,800
  • May 1, 2013 2:29am May 1, 2013 2:29am
Waiting for UK news in an hour by the looks of it. Range of 23 so far today it has to explode one way or another.
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