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Trend Runner

  • #21
  • Apr 29, 2013 8:38pm Apr 29, 2013 8:38pm
Quoting gaia68
Hi Ilz, thank u for sharing your method. I am trying to organize a similar one on stocks, therefore I am very interested. I only have Supertrend and Emas, not Barry's S/R, so I normally keep an eye on basic S/Rs, like candles highs and lows and main S/R appearing on the chart. Pls allow me to ask a question on your money management, as I have not understood what you do. You use 100 pips as initial stop loss (ok), and when you have 30 pips in your favour you move to BE (ok), and then 1 pip up above this "winning" trailing stop every 10 more pips...

Hey gaia68,

Lets we if I can help sort it out for you. Here is a hypothetical trade:

Long GBP/USD

Initial SL 100 pips

Next candle I am DOWN 50 pips.

Verify these questions:

Did last candle close above 200 SMA?

If YES Move to next question.

If NO CLOSE TRADE

Did last candle close above Supertrend?

If Yes, Move to next question.

If NO CLOSE TRADE

Is super trend still BLUE?

If YES keep trade alive.

If NO CLOSE TRADE.

Hope that helped. If you need more explanation, let me know.

Now I want to be sure you understand.

You stated : "and when you have 30 pips in your favor you move to BE (OK)"

Once price moves to 30 pips in my favor, even if price has come back, I will place a BE +3 (If possible).

You stated : "and then 1 pip up above this "winning" trailing stop every 10 more pips gained (OK)"

For every 10 pips of movement, even if price has retraced, I manually add 1 pip to my BE. I am looking to , at minimum, secure 10% of the overall move. I am talking about candle highs/lows not current pip amount.

Example:

long GBP/USD @ 1.5000

Next candle close @ 1.5050, Candle High 1.5100. My BE will be +10 NOT +5

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #22
  • Apr 29, 2013 8:47pm Apr 29, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting ashtrader
{quote} Hi thanks so much, I trade a similar method, but your system just might simplfy things for me , I need to sort out money management etc
Hey ashtrader,

Money management was actually harder to come up with then the method itself. Its a fine balance of trying to keep capital secure while at the same time giving the trade a chance to develop. In all honesty, with a solid MM plan, you can make money by just flipping a coin.

All I can say is from experience, you have to design your own money management. It has to be something you can live with. The goal of FX trading is to make money yes, but if you do not have any money to trade, your out of luck. FX is a business, not a game. It is not a get rich quick. With a good trading method and solid money management, FX is a get rich eventually plan.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #23
  • Apr 29, 2013 9:10pm Apr 29, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting gaia68
I like the attitude and the concept. BUT: how can we avoid getting stuck into a non trending period? I have the feeling that ckecking S and R is not enough. You can go over a resistance and then slump back into congestion. See for example attached immage: I use Supertrend and the 89EMA (= the green line), the two tell me - combined - which way to trade. But with this stock I'd have caught many bad trades in a row, and only in March 2012 I could have said "that stock was definitely not trending" and "we are now out of the congestion"! {image}...
Hey gaia68,

When the market is in "TRAFFIC' I try to not avoid trading. "But when will we know when price will move?"

Well, we don't. What I do is continue trading the way I do. You see, price is going to bounce between relatively tight S&R. When price breaks S&R, I take my trade, as long as other things line up. I might make a few pips, lose a few pips, but I do not want to miss out when price finally moves. And it will. It always does.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #24
  • Apr 29, 2013 9:20pm Apr 29, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting iwan73
are we waiting for long signals on ChJ and AJ? Isthis valid entry on UCh? {image} {image} {image}
Hey IWAN37,

In your first pick, the line you placed would be the entry candle. You would enter at the start of that candle.

In the second pic, this could be a retracement or it could be a continuation. I do not trade that pair (CHF/JPY) but if I did, I would wait for price to close above a blue supertrend.

In the third pic, price has been fighting with the 200 SMA line. It has also been congested around 103.00 mark. Also notice supertrend has not changed. Once it does turn blue and closes above supertrend, I will take the long. That is as long as resistance is broken.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #25
  • Apr 29, 2013 9:23pm Apr 29, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting gaia68
{quote} MMM, I think I'll go back to drawing some trendlines...
Hey gaia68,

There is nothing wrong with that. I used to use them all the time, but I do not rely on them for trading anymore. These days, I can just eye lower lows and higher highs. I spent enough screen time that trend lines are burned into my retinas!!!

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #26
  • Apr 29, 2013 9:43pm Apr 29, 2013 9:43pm
Ok, this is what I have going currently.

AUD/USD - NOTHING

EUR/JPY - NOTHING

EUR/USD - NOTHING

Long GBP/USD @ 1.52784. Current stop 1.54150. +136.6 secured

Short USD/CAD @ 1.01907. Current stop 1.01827. +8.0 secured

Short USD/CHF @ 0.93941. Current stop 0.93911. +3.0 secured

USD/JPY - NOTHING

Gold - NOTHING

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #27
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:26am Apr 30, 2013 12:26am
TRADING GOLD

I am going to chat a little about trading gold. Trading Gold is a bit different if you live in the Good Ol' U S of A. I get 0 leverage in trading Gold with my broker (Oanda) but it's OK.

Trading gold in the USA, My leverage is 1:1. That means I get 0.01 per pip. My margin is current market price.

So why bother? Because its good practice... Cheap. Also, sometimes I hit a pretty good run. Like this month I hit a short on gold that netted me 16069 pips. That is not a misprint. 16069. Granted that equals $160.69 ( 16069 X 0.01 = 160.69 ) that kind of movement is not rare for Gold but I have mostly hit between 3000 & 6000 pip moves.

My risk is always 5000 pips. I trade it the same way. However, after price moves 500 pips in my direction, I move my BE to 50. From that point I only move stops to new S&R levels.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #28
  • Apr 30, 2013 1:34am Apr 30, 2013 1:34am
Quoting ilzalama
{quote} In your first pick, the line you placed would be the entry candle. You would enter at the start of that candle.
At the start/open of marked candle? How did you know at open of candle No2 that it would be entry candle if Super Trend was blue at close of candle No1?
As you described in post number 2 Super Trend must be red to enter short. This indicator was red for sure when candle No2 closed so as i understand entry rules we can enter short at open of candle No3.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: q1.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #29
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:57am Apr 30, 2013 2:57am
Quoting iwan73
{quote} At the start/open of marked candle? How did you know at open of candle No2 that it would be entry candle if Super Trend was blue at close of candle No1? As you described in post number 2 Super Trend must be red to enter short. This indicator was red for sure when candle No2 closed so as i understand entry rules we can enter short at open of candle No3. {image}
Hey iwan73,

My mistake, I thought that candle 1 closed red. Sometimes when supertrend changes color, it will do so with a small red/blue/yellow tip. I thought maybe that a small red tip appeared. If it did not, but was red at candle 2, then go for it.

By the way, a yellow supertrend is just a warming. Do not trade or close a trade based on a yellow supertrend.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #30
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:09am Apr 30, 2013 3:09am
Trade Update

1 AM CANDLE

AUD/USD - NOTHING

EUR/JPY - NOTHING

EUR/USD - NOTHING

Long GBP/USD @ 1.52784. Current stop 1.54150. +136.6 secured

Short USD/CAD @ 1.01907. Current stop 1.01827. +8.0 secured

Short USD/CHF @ 0.93941. Current stop 0.93911. +3.0 secured

USD/JPY - NOTHING

Gold - NOTHING

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #31
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:16am Apr 30, 2013 3:16am
Hey All,

So just FYI, My Oanda H4 Candles are as follows:

1 AM PST

5 AM "

9 AM "

1 PM "

5 PM "

9 PM "

I catch all but the 9 AM. Gotta Sleep. But usually you can tell if something is going to happen. Sometimes if it looks close, I will get up @ 8:45 AM to check real quick and go back to sleep. Everyone's broker is different. Everyone will have different closing times for candles and different entry points.

-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #32
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:41am Apr 30, 2013 3:41am
Quoting ilzalama
USD/CAD @ 1.01907. Current stop 1.01827. +8.0 secured
Can you show me your entry on screenshot? I trade on different broker so our H4 candles are different.
  • #33
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:57am Apr 30, 2013 3:57am
Quoting iwan73
{quote} Can you show me your entry on screenshot? I trade on different broker so our H4 candles are different.
Hey iwan73,

Here is a shot. I placed lines on my initial entry, initial sl & current sl.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-04-30_015411.jpg Size: 205 KB
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #34
  • Apr 30, 2013 4:00am Apr 30, 2013 4:00am
Quoting ilzalama
{quote} Hey iwan73, Here is a shot. I placed lines on my initial entry, initial sl & current sl. {image}
Ok. Can you point out entry candle?
  • #35
  • Apr 30, 2013 4:06am Apr 30, 2013 4:06am
Quoting iwan73
{quote} Ok. Can you point out entry candle?
hey iwan73,

Here you go.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-04-30_015411.jpg Size: 198 KB


-ILZ
“Control, control, you must learn control!” - Yoda
  • #36
  • Apr 30, 2013 5:01am Apr 30, 2013 5:01am
Hi Ilzalama,

I now understand your entry when price breaks 200sma and supertrend is confirming the price action etc but once the trend is established , from the way you move your stops ,I am sure you frequently get stopped out after 30 to 60 pips like you mentioned in your earlier post. After that stop out you will see price moving in your direction again , but now the 200sma is quite far away , if you could maybe point a few candles in those sort of situations on a chart , it would be very helpfull

Thanks again
  • #37
  • Apr 30, 2013 5:21am Apr 30, 2013 5:21am
Continuation from post number 36 i.e the example below copied from pg1 of your post ,you got stopped out ,did you then reengage the trend as soon as price closed above the supertrend blue line

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366968555
  • #38
  • Apr 30, 2013 6:49am Apr 30, 2013 6:49am
It is Corn H4 chart. Price break throu MA200, Super Trend is blue, but MA is still in a down trend. Is it valid Long signal?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: qwqw12.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #39
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:07am Apr 30, 2013 9:07am
Hi Ilz

For the GBP/USD which your have long, when did you enter that trade?

Thank
  • #40
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:31am Apr 30, 2013 11:31am
Quoting iwan73
It is Corn H4 chart. Price break throu MA200, Super Trend is blue, but MA is still in a down trend. Is it valid Long signal? {image}
Hi Iwan73.
Let's wait for ILZ to confirm, but I tend to think that the MA inclination may not matter. This is beacuse in post number one ILZ writes: " In this method I use the 200 SMA to show the over all trend in the current TF. When price is below the line, I look for only shorts. It helps if the line is also trending down but it is not necessary."
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