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EUR/CHF

  • #10,421
  • Apr 25, 2013 6:48pm Apr 25, 2013 6:48pm
No raise of floor, nothing. Same rumors every couple of weeks to make the pair spike before Jordan speeches and SNB statements.
Watch 1.2240 and 1.22 supports(safe) before Jordan Speech. After that I guarantee nothing 1.2160 must be okay too for afterwards unless some surprise news, don't think it will be a 1.25 or 1.30 but a one to drop EC I think and we are back to trade in the 1.21s
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,422
  • Apr 26, 2013 12:25am Apr 26, 2013 12:25am
Thanks J.Clinton.....

Given the historical correlation with price increase prior to the SNB news events I think your right.

I am already long anyway and am in for the strategic longer term trade when this moves rapidly at some point in the future once..... Any drop today will be an opportunity for me to buy in at a lower price...
  • #10,423
  • Apr 26, 2013 2:14am Apr 26, 2013 2:14am
Another same speech by Jordan in less than an hour: CHF is still overvalued, the SNB will defend minimum rate at 1.2, the SNB is ready to take additional tools if EZ problems increase, CHF will weaken over time.
Hi Jordan, maybe you don' have price stability in Switzerland but you do have stable words and manner, good luck.
  • #10,424
  • Apr 26, 2013 3:02am Apr 26, 2013 3:02am
Dunno what he's saying, but as Amsterdam's Westerkerk struck 10h the EUR/CHF set off in the right direction ...
:-)
PK
  • #10,425
  • Apr 26, 2013 3:10am Apr 26, 2013 3:10am
The only thing we didn't know already:

"Of our 1,040 tonnes of gold, more than 70% – and thereby the overwhelming proportion – is
stored in Switzerland. The remaining 30% is distributed between two countries. Roughly 20%
of the gold reserves are kept at the central bank of the United Kingdom, and approximately
10% at the central bank of Canada. The SNB has been storing gold exclusively in these
countries for over ten years."

Plus some detail of how SNB would have to react if the gold-reserves referendum were to be approved.

PK
  • #10,426
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:05am Apr 26, 2013 4:05am
closed 25% @ 1,2285 with + 130
  • #10,427
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:17am Apr 26, 2013 4:17am
I don' understand; since 2004 circulated money in Swiss has risen for 50 percent, however; price of gold has risen about 400 percent in this period, so if this amount of gold was the reserve for 20 percent of balance sheets it must be about 60 percent of nowadays balance sheets even if no holding added in the 10 year period, so why does Jordan say the SNB might be under pressure if needed to keep this 20 percent as mandatory?
  • #10,428
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:19am Apr 26, 2013 4:19am
One hour later Jordan speeks it seems no effect to the pair. The next big risk is ECB meeting next thursday. Rate cut or not. Yesterday drop came after Goldman expect 0,25% rate cut.

Or may be some comment later today from Jordan about ECB rate cut/or CHF negaítv rate.
  • #10,429
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:23am Apr 26, 2013 4:23am
Quoting pipxster
closed 25% @ 1,2285 with + 130
I have a feeling this will prove to be a dumb question, but what does the "25%" in your post refer to?
You've closed a position at 1,2285 and made a 130 pip profit, but what is the 25%?
Thx for your patience!
PK
  • #10,430
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:33am Apr 26, 2013 4:33am
Quoting holmes
Another same speech by Jordan in less than an hour: CHF is still overvalued, the SNB will defend minimum rate at 1.2, the SNB is ready to take additional tools if EZ problems increase, CHF will weaken over time. Hi Jordan, maybe you don' have price stability in Switzerland but you do have stable words and manner, good luck.
  • #10,431
  • Apr 26, 2013 5:09am Apr 26, 2013 5:09am
Anybody still betting for the uptrend this month?
  • #10,432
  • Apr 26, 2013 5:13am Apr 26, 2013 5:13am
Quoting rcrist
Anybody still betting on the uptrend this month?
Looks like the maximum points of these spikes are getting lower and lower...
Assuming this spike is over after Jordan didn't say anything new... as everyone actually expected
  • #10,433
  • Apr 26, 2013 6:00am Apr 26, 2013 6:00am
Quoting Plofkip
{quote} I have a feeling this will prove to be a dumb question, but what does the "25%" in your post refer to? You've closed a position at 1,2285 and made a 130 pip profit, but what is the 25%? Thx for your patience! PK
closed 25% of my open positions sorry if it was unclear
  • #10,434
  • Apr 26, 2013 6:07am Apr 26, 2013 6:07am
Quoting rcrist
{quote} Looks like the maximum points of these spikes are getting lower and lower... Assuming this spike is over after Jordan didn't say anything new... as everyone actually expected
also minimum points are higher (HL) on d1 as far as I can see. I was expecting some pullback after 50% fib. and maybe further because of the EBC rate cut rumour, that wont happen most probably anyway...expect to reopen the now closed lots soon
  • #10,435
  • Apr 26, 2013 6:32am Apr 26, 2013 6:32am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} also minimum points are higher (HL) on d1 as far as I can see. I was expecting some pullback after 50% fib. and maybe further because of the EBC rate cut rumour, that wont happen most probably anyway...expect to reopen the now closed lots soon

Yes, minimum points are a little higher, but I still think there is a possibility to see the pair below 1.21 soon.
  • #10,436
  • Apr 26, 2013 9:18am Apr 26, 2013 9:18am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} closed 25% of my open positions sorry if it was unclear
Dude, you must had closed all your positions and yesterday too not today. Review my last post closed all mine at 1.2344, nearly highest price reached of the few days spike.
Used to hold long positions from more than a year ago, like you are doing now but history teaches you that EC must be Longed in the 1.21** or sometimes 1.22** when the opportunity exist and in a sideways market.

From that time till today, have profited from EC more than I'll ever profit from just holding a long and waiting, even if it goes to 1.30, 1.40 or 1.50

Count the one year trading days and multiply it by some 20 pips per day on EC, and multiply that number by a high lot number(high leverage), you'll get out with a Big Wealth per year No better investment along trading the other pairs.

Even when the pair was moving some 15 pips near the peg at past. Was increasing my lots more and more, gaining gaining and gaining with high lots from tight range.

Some days I don't EC, specially when it is in the 1.22s without clear outlook.

Read my earlier posts, will see 1.224, 1.22 and 1.216. We are on 1.225 now. Each day there had been some 20-30 pip opp. to Long 20-30 and run with profits.
Until, you see that the sideways or downtrend channel changed like in couple days behind. You can long and hold taking advantage of market condition TURN.

For example: Isn't it better if closed your positions like I had done yesterday 1.2344 and waited for a better opportunity than close some or hope Jordan will surprise
If you had done that, even if you now open longs in the 1.225* 1.226* range and it goes down, you are a WINNER.
Approximately 100 pips less than your taking profit price(1.2344)

SNB will not raise the floor or intervene anytime soon. You must trade according to market condition of each day, without betting on supernatural and 1.30 dreams
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #10,437
  • Apr 26, 2013 9:37am Apr 26, 2013 9:37am
Quoting pipxster
closed 25% of my open positions sorry if it was unclear
Thx & well done: they say that it is never bad to take profit!
  • #10,438
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:28am Apr 26, 2013 10:28am
Quoting J.Clinton
{quote} Dude, you must had closed all your positions and yesterday too not today. Review my last post closed all mine at 1.2344, nearly highest price reached of the few days spike. Used to hold long positions from more than a year ago, like you are doing now but history teaches you that EC must be Longed in the 1.21** or sometimes 1.22** when the opportunity exist and in a sideways market. From that time till today, have profited from EC more than I'll ever profit from just holding a long and waiting, even if it goes to 1.30, 1.40 or 1.50 Count...
Hello J, thanks for the post, if you look my earlier posts I have closed all my longs at 1,256 from 1,205 (posted immediately when the price was there you can check it . no crystal ball I was a bit lucky) and the way down I have reopened some again, Im for the long haul for with this pair with both strategies, have some longs for short run, but I also have some for longer. To close at 1,256 I have waited for a year, for me no problem for 1,3 I can wait another one that's why I dont consider it (1,3) as a dream. It can happen without any SNB move or intervention whatever. I have closed positions now because the weak momentum not because of Jordan speech, neither I opened it.

Im more swing and position trader also with both tech and fundamental background, but Im not able to follow the market each moment and - because of that - well Im sometimes miss some opportunities. I think we are just different type of players. Im fine with sitting on a position for weeks or even a year following the fundamentals and tech as I dont have time for daily action, and you might enjoy collecting 20-30-100 daily that could yield more of course I agree with that.
  • #10,439
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:37am Apr 26, 2013 10:37am
Quoting holmes
I don' understand; since 2004 circulated money in Swiss has risen for 50 percent, however; price of gold has risen about 400 percent in this period, so if this amount of gold was the reserve for 20 percent of balance sheets it must be about 60 percent of nowadays balance sheets even if no holding added in the 10 year period, so why does Jordan say the SNB might be under pressure if needed to keep this 20 percent as mandatory?
The SNB has sold gold during this period, but more importantly the money supply and the central bank's balance sheet are not one and the same thing anyway.

In 2012 the SNB created an additional 188bn CHF, sold them for EUR and went buying German government debt with the proceeds to defend the 1,20 peg. As a result the SNB's balance sheet exploded from CHF 346bn to CHF 499bn, but the broad M3 measure of money supply grew by less than 8% over the same period. It is 20% of the CHF 499bn figure which the gold freaks want to see held as physical metal. As of today the SNB holds only 10% of this value as gold. If the referendum was approved, the SNB would have to go buying gold (and/or shrink its balance sheet by dumping EUR assets). Neither very attractive.

See: http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...r_SNB.book.pdf
and: http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/statmon/...Geldmengen.pdf

PK
  • #10,440
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:51am Apr 26, 2013 10:51am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Hello J, thanks for the post, if you look my earlier posts I have closed all my longs at 1,256 from 1,205 (posted immediately when the price was there you can check it . no crystal ball I was a bit lucky) and the way down I have reopened some again, Im for the long haul for with this pair with both strategies, have some longs for short run, but I also have some for longer. To close at 1,256 I have waited for a year, for me no problem for 1,3 I can wait another one that's why I dont consider it (1,3) as a dream. It can happen without any...
Will repeat that was just following same strategy like yours, holding a EC position for 100s pips but the market condition on EC teach you so far, just like life does
My strategy is not scalping or some 20-30 pip for other pairs but 70-100+. Just for EC following twisted tp strategy, when the volatility is low, sideways to tight range actually.
It had been proved GREAT so far, why change
By the way, most my brokers switched to negative rollover many months behind, many negative, one positive and one ZERO.
That also had a main influence on my decision
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
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