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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #339,301
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:29am Apr 24, 2013 1:29am
Quoting FXMindset
TL is not my food but the daily candle formation indicating down,we indeed shoot high yesterday when kisses the TL but we close 50% body below and the EU also closed below the Monthly S,breaking yesterday low might bring both pairs smoothly down today Pound/Dollar Daily {image}
on the other hand it still stays above weekly closing level and yesterdays lows bounced from middle of the last breakout swing (D1) and bounced quite sharply. As it made three consecutive LL's (H1) and still havent been able to move below key levels - maybe another attack of the highs is comming. I think, that another attack of 5340's wont hold and after that it will proceed for 5480's eventually
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  • #339,302
  • Edited 8:59pm Apr 24, 2013 1:31am | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting iNSIELD
5 Percent when placing buy stops how far above the resistance do you place them
You have to consider few conditions.


1- Is the stops near a order board's offers location? numbers like 80/100 are not good. Like 1.5280, 1.53 these areas are commonly the places people load shorts/offers.

2- Consider is there a break of falling tl or rising tl. use both tl and horizontal and check with condition 1. aka neck line

3- Is that area a common location of support turn resistance, resistance turns support, check that number as it might conflict with 1/2. -> look for reaction or possible price action to close above resistance first, then u add on after a doji beside a marabuzo pa that closed above the former's resistance.

4- commonly just 5-6 pips away from current high or lo will do-> If u are going for burst.. Rem we are looking at bid price commonly on mt4. No harm buying higher if you intend to trade further upwards, with good stop losses buffering a good tp usually 1:2. Bid price u must consider ur broker's spread, and possible slippage if u are using market maker like oanda etc, they can open spreads widely prior to an event just to trip your stops or hunt your stops.

5- Conflict with 4, u need to know your buy stop purpose is to do what? Its buying high, its either 1) Meant to catch a short term burst price action like marabuzo or a 15-30min rally. Or you intend to trade a full breakout to another point with a Risk reward or positioning.

6- On going session volatility - > Europe sessions or US? IS there a fundamental event like BOJ ECB FOMC etc? What is the current liquidity u see on forexfactory? Usually above 150-200%, price have more power to break r or s. If in the US session or Friday -> Consider what's the current Hour4's Price action, is it a big fat engulfing or marabuzo? If that's near resistance or support level, yes higher probability of using stops. And lastly, current on going sentiments.

[ last note : Asia's Breakout is the most friendly and not cunning like europe or us ]
  • #339,303
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:02am Apr 24, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} FX, would have loved the pound to decline yesterday pound moves oddly to me I need to trade it more!
Amen
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #339,304
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:04am Apr 24, 2013 2:04am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} on the other hand it still stays above weekly closing level and yesterdays lows bounced from middle of the last breakout swing (D1) and bounced quite sharply. As it made three consecutive LL's (H1) and still havent been able to move below key levels - maybe another attack of the highs is comming. I think, that another attack of 5340's wont hold and after that it will proceed for 5480's eventually
The bounce sharply for me not importantly.Its just a Pound characteristic,more importantly is the closed
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #339,305
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:10am Apr 24, 2013 2:10am
Euro D1 & Pound D1

Note : Euro looks very heavy,the demand formed and killed and formed and killed again and again for 11 days,and yesterday finally we made a solid break below Monthly S,if yesterday low taken out today then we might see 1.28xx level
Attached Images
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #339,306
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:29am Apr 24, 2013 2:29am
I realised I missed a possable trend reversal in one of my methods thats bearish even though Im mainly bullish for gbp to go to 1.56xx

Here you see a chart where I use %K with a 3,3 seting
An ADX with a 14,14 setting and 18 DMA

How I use this tools is

I look for a spike in % K above 85% with a swing high 1 that is lower than swing high point 3 or a low below 15 % bwith swing high 1 higher than swing high 3 for the oppisit.

Now here I haave Identifide a % K spike above 86% with a high swing point on the chart at point 1 and a higher high at point 3 with a lower %K
and the days between the 2 highs must be more than 5 days and less than 15 days for it to be valid.

and point 3 must be the highest high in the last 4 days wich it is.

youl see I marked the setupday for the trend reersal with green. And one looks to take between 100 to 300 pips out of this move.

but youl see at the point where it is now, a new harmonic has come to competion and it seems to be the end of the downtrend reversal or correction. And its setting up for the bounce up to 1.56xx also yesterday it retraced to the 38 % fib level wich is a key level for the harmonics. There was a down trend but i think its staring to subside now and we will se a continuation of an uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PSK GBP.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #339,307
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:45am Apr 24, 2013 2:45am
Quoting FXMindset
{quote} The bounce sharply for me not importantly.Its just a Pound characteristic,more importantly is the closed
But this is the point - it didnt closed anywhere in significant...Neither below previous day's lows or weekly closing level, neither any of the mids of the previous big (daily) swings.
Daily formation that you showing would be more meaningful if it formed on the top of the range, but now it just hangs inside the range..
Anyway there isnt any strong bull arguments also (yet), just all this bearishness is so weak and fishy...
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  • #339,308
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:10am Apr 24, 2013 4:10am
we have a triangle inside the triangle , I will try to buy or sell when it break the little triangle .when it reach the big triangle if it break I will wait the break of the yellow lines , or Take my profit here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tri3.png Size: 92 KB
  • #339,309
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:24am Apr 24, 2013 4:24am
Quoting Cornelis
I realised I missed a possable trend reversal in one of my methods thats bearish even though Im mainly bullish for gbp to go to 1.56xx Here you see a chart where I use %K with a 3,3 seting An ADX with a 14,14 setting and 18 DMA How I use this tools is I look for a spike in % K above 85% with a swing high 1 that is lower than swing high point 3 or a low below 15 % bwith swing high 1 higher than swing high 3 for the oppisit. Now here I haave Identifide a % K spike above 86% with a high swing point on the chart at point 1 and a higher high at...
Yes,another possible.based on chart pattern normaly it complete the third wave before down
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #339,310
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:36am Apr 24, 2013 4:36am
Again near Sell Area 1.5287-1.5315
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.JPG Size: 61 KB
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #339,311
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:49am Apr 24, 2013 4:49am
Quoting kamifx
Again near Sell Area 1.5287-1.5315 {image}
yep , I think we will stay inside the triangle for now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tri4.png Size: 80 KB
  • #339,312
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:49am Apr 24, 2013 4:49am
GU might received more strength from GJ to break previous day's high at this point. Probably in US session's as long as current asia's low is not broken. Everything that went down is more or less a retracement then a reversal sign. As Yen crosses are still challenging the top for further breakout, and that's the main dish that's moving the market over sentiment.

As soon as Euro and AUD stop sliding due to any tech / fundy reason, they might also with UJ challenged 100, and break out further with yen's weakness.

Above 1.5288, price have stronger momentum to breakout very soon.

earlier eur's IFO went down to only pick up more bids as price failed to close under, AUDUSD also pushed out from underground to near 1.03.

my current EMA signals are intersected for going up, unless any new developments from fundamental side. Technical is pointing up for intra-day now.

CBI Realized sales will provide the breakout/ price still under 1.5287's range.
  • #339,313
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:01am Apr 24, 2013 5:01am
Nice chart！look the arrow，excellent entry point
what is the indicator behind the arrow？
can you share it？
Quoting -sonny-
we have a triangle inside the triangle , I will try to buy or sell when it break the little triangle .when it reach the big triangle if it break I will wait the break of the yellow lines , or Take my profit here {image}
  • #339,314
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:05am Apr 24, 2013 5:05am
5 percent I also see 1.53034 as a last ditch level for bears before a confirmed up move. As we discussed before would you have a pending buy stop at lets say 1.53084
  • #339,315
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:15am Apr 24, 2013 5:15am
Price trying to form a double top at 1.5287 1hr chart. Is it time to short?
  • #339,316
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:18am Apr 24, 2013 5:18am
Inability to make new HH above 5287 made strong bearish argument.. Need to wait for a bounce at 5250'ties if it goes for another try..
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  • #339,317
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:20am Apr 24, 2013 5:20am
Quoting aftatech
Price trying to form a double top at 1.5287 1hr chart. Is it time to short?
Im guessing a close below 746 in the hour should be enough
  • #339,318
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:26am Apr 24, 2013 5:26am
Quoting fatpanda
Nice chart！look the arrow，excellent entry point what is the indicator behind the arrow？ can you share it？ {quote}
beautiful arrow , it's T&C Wonder but It is a great repainter.

I agree with you 5percent possible suport to buy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tri5.png Size: 90 KB
  • #339,319
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:47am Apr 24, 2013 5:47am
Today too they are in try continue more correction at the top also , very tough now but no other way left perhaps , a little slip may continue sky falling effects ( as seen in gold today morning > gold picture ) .
gold need break down 1413, 1404 , actually 1400 & next 1391 to down , otherwise mofu up some ok .

gu to breaks & hold 5200 first .

better wait before the next session starts with pullback end to continue bear in eu most probable .

fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: goldh4.png Size: 38 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #339,320
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:48am Apr 24, 2013 5:48am
Quoting 5percent
Technical is pointing up for intra-day now.
Yes Indeed
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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