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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,461
  • Apr 18, 2013 10:46am Apr 18, 2013 10:46am
I like to call it Interest Analysis
  • #2,462
  • Apr 18, 2013 10:51am Apr 18, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is not technical analysis. We are not comparing indicators or drawing trendlines. We are taking a stand at levels which have proven themselves over time to be prices that other traders are willing to make transactions. I trade where I believe orders are located. If you want to name my style of trading I would say it falls more under the banner of order flow than anything else, although not perfectly fitting that description either.
So, you agree with the second sentence?
  • #2,463
  • Apr 18, 2013 10:58am Apr 18, 2013 10:58am
Quoting TantumVerum
Always lurking...
Where to find reliably option prices (NY cut) for majors?
  • #2,464
  • Apr 18, 2013 10:59am Apr 18, 2013 10:59am
Quoting kk007
So, you agree with the second sentence?
Well I do and I don't.

I agree that the levels I have picked out over time have significance and are being watched but not because of a self fulfilling prophecy but because that is the place where orders stack up. Banks earn money by filling orders for large clients. Those orders tend to group around highs lows and closes. If self fulfilling prophecies were anything of value fib traders would be making all the money. I have never seen something so without merit being watched by so many. The only "fib" level that actually works with any regularity isn't even a fib.
  • #2,465
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:01am Apr 18, 2013 11:01am
Quoting tdforex
Where to find reliably option prices (NY cut) for majors?
Any time price is around a zero or fifty level just before ten AM NY you can bet that there is a vanilla option in play. For the exotic options you can look at IFR (Thompson Reuters) for its options buz. They also can be found on all the big ones like Bloomberg etc.
  • #2,466
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:11am Apr 18, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Any time price is around a zero or fifty level just before ten AM NY you can bet that there is a vanilla option in play. For the exotic options you can look at IFR (Thompson Reuters) for its options buz. They also can be found on all the big ones like Bloomberg etc.
Every day or just thursdays?
  • #2,467
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:12am Apr 18, 2013 11:12am
Quoting tdforex
Every day or just thursdays?
There are always options in play. Every day.

IFR news service is free to Oanda account holders I am not sure how to get it otherwise. They have a good options expiry table that is produced every day and it lists the options that they have been tipped to.
  • #2,468
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:15am Apr 18, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I would also add that you can't give up on a day. The second entry yesterday was a great winner
Live and learn, I didn't even think about a second entry on the ORB trade after getting stopped out. I'll be looking for that the next time I get stopped out. Thanks SP. You were mentioning the London Fade on the pound pairs. That is also going to become a staple in my trading. I see price respecting that line almost every day if price reaches it.
  • #2,469
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:18am Apr 18, 2013 11:18am
Quoting Snowbird
Live and learn, I didn't even think about a second entry on the ORB trade after getting stopped out. I'll be looking for that the next time I get stopped out. Thanks SP. You were mentioning the London Fade on the pound pairs. That is also going to become a staple in my trading. I see price respecting that line almost every day if price reaches it.
Its usually good for something. It may not always be a great hold for a hundred pips but you can usually squeeze out twenty or thirty pips with it once or twice a day. Twenty pips a day will keep the bill collectors at bay, as they say.
  • #2,470
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:24am Apr 18, 2013 11:24am
Quoting Seneca pilot
There are always options in play. Every day. IFR news service is free to Oanda account holders I am not sure how to get it otherwise. They have a good options expiry table that is produced every day and it lists the options that they have been tipped to.
Thank you SP!
  • #2,471
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:28am Apr 18, 2013 11:28am
What kind of "threshold" do you have regarding Previous Day High and Previous Day Low trades. About 2-3 pips? Ie. if price comes to 2-3 pips away from day high, do you fade it, or does the price have to touch exactly the previous day high/low?
  • #2,472
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:38am Apr 18, 2013 11:38am
Quoting Seneca pilot
The only "fib" level that actually works with any regularity isn't even a fib.
Exactly. I also love the 50-level.
  • #2,473
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:45am Apr 18, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Well I do and I don't. I agree that the levels I have picked out over time have significance and are being watched but not because of a self fulfilling prophecy but because that is the place where orders stack up. Banks earn money by filling orders for large clients. Those orders tend to group around highs lows and closes. If self fulfilling prophecies were anything of value fib traders would be making all the money. I have never seen something so without merit being watched by so many. The only "fib" level that actually works...
Thanks for sharing your view. I am thinking this kind of practise is like a kind of preference or habit (not sure the exact wordings) of doing things. Over time, big player traders may change their way of doing things, and adjustment may be needed over time to catch how banks work. In other words, one day the current way of mark levels may be obsolete and new way has to be made to catch the future change.
  • #2,474
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:46am Apr 18, 2013 11:46am
Quoting tdforex
What kind of "threshold" do you have regarding Previous Day High and Previous Day Low trades. About 2-3 pips? Ie. if price comes to 2-3 pips away from day high, do you fade it, or does the price have to touch exactly the previous day high/low?
A couple of pips is fine. Normally price will over shoot just a little to trigger stops. big players love to trigger the stops as it allows them to get into their trades without slippage. I like to wait for the overshoot and get a little better price but I can be impatient and often get in a couple of pips inside the level. Remember when setting stops you have to use the actual high or low price and add spread. The better your price the smaller your stop can be.
  • #2,475
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:49am Apr 18, 2013 11:49am
Quoting kk007
Thanks for sharing your view. I am thinking this kind of practise is like a kind of preference or habit (not sure the exact wordings) of doing things. Over time, big player traders may change their way of doing things, and adjustment may be needed over time to catch how banks work. In other words, one day the current way of mark levels may be obsolete and new way has to be made to catch the future change.
I guess that is possible but think of things this way. Value would be at the low. Expensive would be at the high. If you were a big trader and wanted value where would you place your orders. Why would that ever change? I can tell you it hasn't changed since markets came into being so why would it change now or in the future?
  • #2,476
  • Apr 18, 2013 12:48pm Apr 18, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting kk007
Thanks for sharing your view. I am thinking this kind of practise is like a kind of preference or habit (not sure the exact wordings) of doing things. Over time, big player traders may change their way of doing things, and adjustment may be needed over time to catch how banks work. In other words, one day the current way of mark levels may be obsolete and new way has to be made to catch the future change.
Orders grouping around highs and lows will never change.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,477
  • Apr 18, 2013 1:08pm Apr 18, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
There are always options in play. Every day. IFR news service is free to Oanda account holders I am not sure how to get it otherwise. They have a good options expiry table that is produced every day and it lists the options that they have been tipped to.
I look at these guys http://talking-forex.com/live?code=dBQ869WseBTwk3cHwUz9 as well as IFR.
  • #2,478
  • Apr 18, 2013 1:58pm Apr 18, 2013 1:58pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Its usually good for something. It may not always be a great hold for a hundred pips but you can usually squeeze out twenty or thirty pips with it once or twice a day. Twenty pips a day will keep the bill collectors at bay, as they say.
Hi Seneca
Re the 'London Fade' sounds v.interesting, could you expand a bit more please?
TIA
  • #2,479
  • Apr 18, 2013 1:59pm Apr 18, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting Good Lookin
I look at these guys http://talking-forex.com/live?code=dBQ869WseBTwk3cHwUz9 as well as IFR.
Haha sponsored by zerohedge - gotta love that Tyler Durden geezer
  • #2,480
  • Apr 18, 2013 2:08pm Apr 18, 2013 2:08pm
Hi Jonnypants, The London Fade is the price where London closes. SP plays it with GJ and GU. These pound pairs usually bounce off that price for 10-30 pips. I've seen a lot more pips than that too.
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