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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,501
  • Apr 19, 2013 9:37am Apr 19, 2013 9:37am
Galaxy, you want to be trading micro lots, i.e 0.10p,0.20p and maybe .50p. You will gain more confidence in the method and also learn to switch from selling to buying in a heartbeat if the trade requires it! your emotions are strung out if your account is getting hammered every time you take a trade.
you can get the same emotions with a micro so good way to start, without risking your account. Just my experience for what its worth. Good luck
  • #2,502
  • Apr 19, 2013 11:58am Apr 19, 2013 11:58am
Quoting Seneca pilot
< Emphasis/Bold by 4x.z> I agree that the levels I have picked out over time have significance and are being watched but not because of a self fulfilling prophecy but because that is the place where orders stack up. Banks earn money by filling orders for large clients. Those orders tend to group around highs lows and closes. If self fulfilling prophecies were anything of value fib traders would be making all the money. I have never seen something so without merit being watched by so many. The only "fib" level that actually...
Hello SP,

I want to acknowledge and summarize the things in your thread that have helped me.

1. Comments like those above really cut to the chase and clear up a lot of the myths & magic that mislead many traders.
Draw enough lines on a chart and the market is bound to hit one of them. Your lines are much different because they have a basis in fact.

2. You and other posters often make comments that are contrary to popular notions and are interesting to ponder.

3. You and other posters disclose observations of nuances in the market that add to our understanding. We can look at a chart and
understand the messages that the candles transmit.

4. My suggestion to all:
I have been printing and saving your posts and others that teach any important point. I am creating a "text book" that eliminates all
the fluff and nonsense that appears in most other books. Of course, there are good books out there.

5. 263,000 views and 170 pages! Many people are finding value in this relatively young thread. This is the first thread I read.

Have a great weekend everyone.
TRADING. It isn't rocket surgery.
  • #2,503
  • Apr 20, 2013 6:37am Apr 20, 2013 6:37am
Last trade of the week: GBPJPY bounce off the weekly close (red line). TP: London close
Last weeks I achieved what I couldn’t have done in a long time: making +100 pips regularly. Today I finished with +162 pips. There were a lot of opportunities, for example take a look GBPCHF, nice bounce off the weekly open for 75 pips.
Still a lot of mistakes, giving back pips, probably due overtrading, lack of patience, discipline. But starting to feel a little bit the “Eureka” moment.

Once again Chris a big THANK YOU.


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Quoting Seneca pilot
Good morning everyone: I made my explorer available for over three weeks. I had a gain of over 26% and never risked more than two percent per position. I have taken the explorer down as I want to reclaim my test account. I am planning to open a new account with one thousand dollars and start the tracking again. I will link the account here as soon as it is up and running..... Chris
  • #2,504
  • Apr 20, 2013 12:32pm Apr 20, 2013 12:32pm
Hi Bato, i had a great week as well.

Lots of mistakes due to my poor trade management but the lessons learned are invaluable.

SP tips and tricks are pure gold.
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #2,505
  • Apr 20, 2013 1:18pm Apr 20, 2013 1:18pm
Hi Vspatrick. You´re right, nothing better than the experience of a successful trader. Indeed a goldmine
  • #2,506
  • Apr 21, 2013 7:52am Apr 21, 2013 7:52am
Stepped back to FF today after a while and found this thread. Thanks SP for this thread.
  • #2,507
  • Apr 22, 2013 2:53am Apr 22, 2013 2:53am
definitely like the tone of thread
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #2,508
  • Apr 22, 2013 5:08am Apr 22, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Interesting thing is that the fifty is not a fib but it is the only one that works with any regularity.
I saw this post in another thread and I doubt if you will see it when I quote you there. Am not trying to derail this thread. Having said that, how can I plot the 0.509 fib on my chart just for profit taking and price action. Am working on a demand and supply method (similar to your method) with entry confirmation using some reliable candlesticks patterns (not compulsory) and so far it looks promising. No lagging indy.
  • #2,509
  • Apr 22, 2013 6:44am Apr 22, 2013 6:44am
OK SP's not coming back so here's my run down on the day so far:
Today is a Monday (double checked this time) and the 15m and orb trades look good from here.
So we have as of 12:18GMT/4hrs into London:

EU -15m profit taken, 1HR trade open
EJ - 15m profit taken, 1HR SL hit
GU -15m SL hit, 1HR trade open
GJ - 15m profit taken, 1HR trade open
UJ - 15m trade open, 1HR no entry
EG -15m SL hit then re-entry in other direction profit taken, 1HR no entry

So that's:

4 good trades (2:1 RR or 3:1 depending on your stop placing)
3 stops hit
3 trades still open
2 x no entry

That's all non discretionary. With targeting R:R (as opposed to next level) you are in profit at the moment with 3 live trades needing managing.
That's also a total of 10 trades thuis morning which is arguably far too many so can we say which ones we wouldn't have taken and why? Any takers?
  • #2,510
  • Edited 8:01am Apr 22, 2013 7:43am | Edited 8:01am
Well looking at the 1Hr orb on the EU and EJ-

Obviously the Euro is in the driving seat this morning as these pairs are moving in sync. Now they both had good breakout trades with sell orders triggered at the same time. Crucially though at this point EU has had only a 6pip drawdown while EJ a 21pip drawdown. But does that make EU a 'better trade'?

Edit - does it depend on what our target is? How low will EU go today? How low EJ? Do we take profit at 2:1 then ride the rest?
2nd Edit - EU is below its Friday low but EJ has 100pips before it hits that low. Does this matter?
3rd Edit. How many pips to PWL on EU? About 25. How many on EJ? About 475. So will EJ be a much bigger mover this week?
  • #2,511
  • Apr 22, 2013 7:59am Apr 22, 2013 7:59am
Quoting dedoctor
{quote} I saw this post in another thread and I doubt if you will see it when I quote you there. Am not trying to derail this thread. Having said that, how can I plot the 0.509 fib on my chart just for profit taking and price action. Am working on a demand and supply method (similar to your method) with entry confirmation using some reliable candlesticks patterns (not compulsory) and so far it looks promising. No lagging indy.
If you have MT4 just throw up a fib. Right click on it and delete all the other levels other than the fifty, 100, and zero. Now you will have a useful fib tool.
  • #2,512
  • Apr 22, 2013 8:06am Apr 22, 2013 8:06am
Quoting stevexyg
OK SP's not coming back so here's my run down on the day so far: Today is a Monday (double checked this time) and the 15m and orb trades look good from here. So we have as of 12:18GMT/4hrs into London: EU -15m profit taken, 1HR trade open EJ - 15m profit taken, 1HR SL hit GU -15m SL hit, 1HR trade open GJ - 15m profit taken, 1HR trade open UJ - 15m trade open, 1HR no entry EG -15m SL hit then re-entry in other direction profit taken, 1HR no entry So that's: 4 good trades (2:1 RR or 3:1 depending on your stop placing) 3 stops hit 3 trades still open...
I only do the hourly ORB on EU, haven't tested it on anything else.

Euro is in charge today as I think it has begun a big move down. The PA over the last three days of last week suggest a big drop. Never know though. You can tell that the Euro is really weak today because it is going down against the yen. Anything weaker than the yen is really weak.

I am not trading the levels today but I do have a short in from the ORB. first profit is about to be taken and the stop will be moved. I have hopes for a runner this week.

The only pair that is being a pain in the ass today is GU.

Wait you told me to f**k off. Never mind, I wasn't here.
  • #2,513
  • Apr 22, 2013 8:17am Apr 22, 2013 8:17am
lolz glad you're back . I was talking to myself for a bit there. Yeah the EJ breakout is looking good maybe one of those trade of the week jobs as it's a long way down from here. Like you say who knows. For a monday it's been not too shabby, I should really start trading this shit. Just so you know dude you are welcome here anytime. Come back soon.
  • #2,514
  • Apr 22, 2013 8:22am Apr 22, 2013 8:22am
Hi SP,

Just want your view on this trade. Faded the Friday low of EU. The SL is 21 pips. The drawdown is about 13 -15 pips then price moved back to entries and above and hover there. Question is would you change your trade direction to short before the SL hit? How would you manage this trade?


Alpe
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  • #2,515
  • Apr 22, 2013 8:32am Apr 22, 2013 8:32am
Quoting Alpe
Hi SP, Just want your view on this trade. Faded the Friday low of EU. The SL is 21 pips. The drawdown is about 13 -15 pips then price moved back to entries and above and hover there. Question is would you change your trade direction to short before the SL hit? How would you manage this trade? Alpe {image}
There are a few things in play with this trade. You aren't necessarily wrong to have taken it, however here are some things to think about.

The first trade of the day was short. My play here is to hold and try to get a break of the level. I will always take a low or high if it is the first trade of the day but when a trade is already running it isn't as clear a choice.

The NY close and low of the day on Friday were very close together and the bounce at the NY close price could be seen as a test of the low.

Once price broke below the level it tried three times to break back above. On the third test you sort of have to start thinking short again.

The price did not go far enough down to stop out but only missed by a couple of pips. That combined with the previous test of the level and the three thrust attempt to go back up would probably have signaled me to be looking short.
  • #2,516
  • Edited 9:00am Apr 22, 2013 8:46am | Edited 9:00am
Hi SP,

As you said, you didn't use the testing account the same way as your main real account. You took a lot more risk in your testing account to get the monthly growth rate of 25%+.
I would like to ask, what is the monthly growth rate of your real account?
  • #2,517
  • Apr 22, 2013 8:50am Apr 22, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} There are a few things in play with this trade.
Chris are we thinking atall along the lines of 'exhaustion' with a potential bounce off a previous daily level? There was only a 30pip drop from LO/DO to this level. If it was closer to an 80pip drop away would we have had more confidence in it? If it was 100% of ADR away I think we can say that increases the chances of a bouce but 30 vrs 80 pips any bearing?
  • #2,518
  • Apr 22, 2013 9:05am Apr 22, 2013 9:05am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} There are a few things in play with this trade. You aren't necessarily wrong to have taken it, however here are some things to think about. The first trade of the day was short. My play here is to hold and try to get a break of the level. I will always take a low or high if it is the first trade of the day but when a trade is already running it isn't as clear a choice. The NY close and low of the day on Friday were very close together and the bounce at the NY close price could be seen as a test of the low. Once price broke below the level...

Your first trigger is from the daily open or ORB? What is your usual trading start hour?


Alpe
  • #2,519
  • Apr 22, 2013 9:21am Apr 22, 2013 9:21am
Quoting kk007
Hi SP, As you said, you didn't use the testing account the same way as your main real account. You took a lot more risk in your testing account to get the monthly growth rate of 25%+. I would like to ask, what is the monthly growth rate of your real account?
24.8473845%
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,520
  • Apr 22, 2013 9:39am Apr 22, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote}The only pair that is being a pain in the ass today is GU.
Tell me about it...

Cut through the weekly open/close like it was nothing. How long do you stick with a pair on a day like this before moving on? Any way to see a wasted session ahead?
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