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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,441
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:39am Apr 18, 2013 7:39am
I bet if the price on EU makes 1.3135 on this retrace it drops like a rock from there.
  • #2,442
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:41am Apr 18, 2013 7:41am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I bet if the price on EU makes 1.3135 on this retrace it drops like a rock from there.
1.3135 = Last week high... I guess
  • #2,443
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:42am Apr 18, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I bet if the price on EU makes 1.3135 on this retrace it drops like a rock from there.
Yea, I have a few shorts at .3140, doubt we'll get there today though
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,444
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:43am Apr 18, 2013 7:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I bet if the price on EU makes 1.3135 on this retrace it drops like a rock from there.
No it won't go any higher, it's stalled at the pivot! (sorry couldn't resist)

How come when I google 'Eurjpy weekly open April 15' I don't get a decent answer!? Bloody internet, rubbish!
  • #2,445
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:46am Apr 18, 2013 7:46am
Quoting jonnypants
No it won't go any higher, it's stalled at the pivot! (sorry couldn't resist) How come when I google 'Eurjpy weekly open April 15' I don't get a decent answer!? Bloody internet, rubbish!
Even if you find something it won't be right.
  • #2,446
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:48am Apr 18, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Tantum, are you out there? I saw something today on EJ vis-a-vie our discussion about the NY option cut.
Always lurking...
  • #2,447
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:48am Apr 18, 2013 7:48am
Quoting kk007
1.3135 = Last week high... I guess
Yes its last week high. Earlier this week price poked up through it and rejected back down now if it is retested from below it will be a good place to short.
  • #2,448
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:52am Apr 18, 2013 7:52am
Quoting TantumVerum
Always lurking...
I closed way in on price just in the minutes before the cut, down to a five minute chart. You could see the battle over the 128 level with each tick. Price was jumping up and down in two or three pip moves but the ups were out numbered by the downs and the down moves were more violent. It looked like a person on the bid just above the level desperately trying to hold it up above. As soon as the cut came the price flew down through 128 and tripped the stops built up in the battle. Now if I can just see the same picture enough I think I can start to pick out which side is going to have its stops triggered after the cut.
  • #2,449
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:54am Apr 18, 2013 7:54am
I feel as if I am in a place of greatness; xhale has loads of vouchers and less than 1000 posts (and likes Led Zep) and this new bloke pops up who speaks Latin!
I'm just off to beat myself with some birch branches until I feel I am worthy......
Cheers and good trading chaps!
  • #2,450
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:56am Apr 18, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Xhale
Yea, I have a few shorts at .3140, doubt we'll get there today though
I'm thinking Asia tonight or London tomorrow morning. Clearly we are being driven up in that direction. Not sure why all the sudden short covering but looks like the price will be pushed up into the level soon enough.
  • #2,451
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:57am Apr 18, 2013 7:57am
Quoting jonnypants
No it won't go any higher, it's stalled at the pivot! (sorry couldn't resist) How come when I google 'Eurjpy weekly open April 15' I don't get a decent answer!? Bloody internet, rubbish!
1. Go http://www.forexfactory.com
2. Set time zone as GMT -5
3. Go http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php
4. Set the pair as EURJPY and period as H1
5. Move your cursor to 15 Apr 0:00
6. Check the OHLC value and find the Open as 127.7
  • #2,452
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:07am Apr 18, 2013 8:07am
Quoting kk007
1. Go http://www.forexfactory.com 2. Set time zone as GMT -5 3. Go http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php 4. Set the pair as EURJPY and period as H1 5. Move your cursor to 15 Apr 0:00 6. Check the OHLC value and find the Open as 127.7
Ok thanks for that, quite useful BUT what I was really looking for was
'According to the Gospel of Forex and our lord EURJPY the starting number for this week is 12x.xxx'
OR
'According to the Bank of New York Melons and the all seeing eye, the number is 12x.xxx'

Am I going mad or what???
  • #2,453
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:10am Apr 18, 2013 8:10am
Quoting jonnypants
I feel as if I am in a place of greatness; xhale has loads of vouchers and less than 1000 posts (and likes Led Zep) and this new bloke pops up who speaks Latin! I'm just off to beat myself with some birch branches until I feel I am worthy...... Cheers and good trading chaps!
I have been this thread for months posting. No a new pops up..
If you really want to compare, you have only been posting on here for 1-2 days.
  • #2,454
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:11am Apr 18, 2013 8:11am
Quoting Seneca pilot
I closed way in on price just in the minutes before the cut, down to a five minute chart. You could see the battle over the 128 level with each tick. Price was jumping up and down in two or three pip moves but the ups were out numbered by the downs and the down moves were more violent. It looked like a person on the bid just above the level desperately trying to hold it up above. As soon as the cut came the price flew down through 128 and tripped the stops built up in the battle. Now if I can just see the same picture enough I think I can start...
Yes, this is how I watch the action around the expiry cut, but on a 1m chart. Same thing (1m or 5m), but for some reason I just love the 1m. I can't speak specifically to E/J, but I did look at the chart after you have mentioned this. It appears the stops were placed at levels. One other thing that seems to become a little more clear is where the defensive and offensive positions may be being played from (Asia, Euro, US), based upon where they are stacking the stops, where price appears to want to go, and where the opening sessions are. Much is hindsight like anything else, but as I previously stated during our discussion I believe the closer you get to cut the picture starts to become less murky and continues to show you it's hand after the cut. I try to be in before the cut if I can, but am fully prepared to close and reverse if wrong and ride the correct direction. I will ride to 1 of 3 three things, major level, watch LC, and try to hold through NY afternoon if NY is controlling the move.

Does that make any sense to you? I try to piece it all together as it plays out. I am not a guru, but my interpretation has kept me out of trouble a lot and placed me on the right side of the market many times.
  • #2,455
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:12am Apr 18, 2013 8:12am
Quoting jonnypants
Ok thanks for that, quite useful BUT what I was really looking for was 'According to the Gospel of Forex and our lord EURJPY the starting number for this week is 12x.xxx' OR 'According to the Bank of New York Melons and the all seeing eye, the number is 12x.xxx' Am I going mad or what???
For each of the 24 timezones, there is a different day open... so no simple answer you can find...
  • #2,456
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:18am Apr 18, 2013 8:18am
Quoting TantumVerum
Yes, this is how I watch the action around the expiry cut, but on a 1m chart. Same thing (1m or 5m), but for some reason I just love the 1m. I can't speak specifically to E/J, but I did look at the chart after you have mentioned this. It appears the stops were placed at levels. One other thing that seems to become a little more clear is where the defensive and offensive positions may be being played from (Asia, Euro, US), based upon where they are stacking the stops, where price appears to want to go, and where the opening sessions are. Much is...
Watching the action in real time it was fairly obvious to me that the price was going to move down but the defense was holding it up. I could almost see the stops lining up under the 128 level as the entity on the bid kept buying to keep price just above the number. I was short for another reason but watching with a lot of curiosity. The speed of the drop through the stops was nice and the price was propelled into my TP at the weekly open really quickly. I plan to do more of these little experiments and try to quantify what I saw into a set of guidelines that will more often than not get me in on the side of the trade that will ultimately trip the stops.
  • #2,457
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:19am Apr 18, 2013 8:19am
Quoting kk007
For each of the 24 timezones, there is a different day open... so no simple answer you can find...
Regarding Forex only London and New York matter
  • #2,458
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:20am Apr 18, 2013 8:20am
Quoting kk007
For each of the 24 timezones, there is a different day open... so no simple answer you can find...
Think about what you just said and think about this.

The most important trading centers for forex are Europe, London, and NY. Why would I want my daily open to be just before these centers get kicking?
  • #2,459
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:27am Apr 18, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Think about what you just said and think about this. The most important trading centers for forex are Europe, London, and NY. Why would I want my daily open to be just before these centers get kicking?
Technical analysis is a form of self fulfilling prophecy. When a level is watched by bigger collective groups (like big players in Europe, London, New York), it has a significance.
  • #2,460
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:40am Apr 18, 2013 8:40am
Quoting kk007
Technical analysis is a form of self fulfilling prophecy. When a level is watched by bigger collective groups (like big players in Europe, London, New York), it has a significance.
This is not technical analysis. We are not comparing indicators or drawing trendlines. We are taking a stand at levels which have proven themselves over time to be prices that other traders are willing to make transactions. I trade where I believe orders are located. If you want to name my style of trading I would say it falls more under the banner of order flow than anything else, although not perfectly fitting that description either.
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