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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #338,941
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:08am Apr 17, 2013 6:08am
Quoting Maso
I'm wondering when the cable is strongly bearish you want to buy it.
Probably the same reason you have wanted to sell it since 51

It's called swing trading
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #338,942
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:18am Apr 17, 2013 6:18am
the best way to look for real support is wait for the reaction there, don't jump in directly at that number thinking it will reversed in our favor- > that happens very seldom, best is wait for the base resistance or base support to be formed, and that price really exhaused after trendline is clearly broken without a new lower lo or higher hi.

Catching a grasshopper and falling knife is what killed most of us -> As most people are tempted to jump in quickly upon seeing volatility and tend to be against it.

If a real base is formed, its not too late to join in later with a risk defined.

For eg, if we think 1.5240 will bounce, we can buy it later maybe at 25-30 pips away after some more clues that price is really going to go up etc.

After a bear marabuzo breakout from asia's range, attempt to counter at least refer to hour 1 and hour 4 chart with possible real bull price actions vice versa for selling on uptrend wait for a key price action at levels.

Quote
1) Trend Line -> Its called trend line as it measured the high possibility of price closing under it to be on a down trend and above it to be on the up trend.

Down – Rejection through Trend line – > normally lower hi or places of support turns resistance. Can also be via Asia’s Lo or Asia’s Hi

Up -> Bounces off Trend Line or pierce and closed back up – > Normally a higher lo or possible resistance turns support. Can also be via Asia’s Lo or Asia’s Hi

.

Quote
Trend line can be used on any time frame with the knowledge of price action reading, price entry have high probability to be with the flow of current trend then to be going against. Stops are recommended after low if going long, and after hi if going short. Risk reward is commonly 1:1 or at least 1: 2 favorably.

Quote
2) Reclaiming the area of previous support broken or resistance broken, or consolidate with a double or triple test after break of trend line.
Reclamation of previous shoulder is a key element in reading price, as price will keep going up or dropping until it conquer at least 1-2 segment/areas of previous price zone.

below is an example of gold's trendline and shoulder's reclamation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: break-of-falling-trend-1024x491.png Size: 228 KB
  • #338,943
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:28am Apr 17, 2013 6:28am
Th point is 1.4832 was not the end of the story. We may tough 1.44.

Quoting Trader88q
on what basis u state it stronglly bearish. look 4H chart, draw fibo from 6381 to 4832. do deep analysis then say something. we are still in up trend from 4832. again u cant state that we are stong bearish trend. for now we are sliding down. its called side corection or call it how u want but correction is not a trend. u know what !!! look !! if 5032 level will be broken then u can say the trend reverse appeared. till 5032 brake we are still in up trend.
  • #338,944
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:30am Apr 17, 2013 6:30am
Yes, I'm bearish since the beginning of 2013. Now, still bearish towards reaching 1.44

Quoting Ill-b-back
Probably the same reason you have wanted to sell it since 51 It's called swing trading
  • #338,945
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:33am Apr 17, 2013 6:33am
We our on the pivot 15250 so PA will be interesting seems like it wants to go lower but is holding up very well. May wait for confirmation before buying. If it keeps going south i will be looking for buy oppertunities at 1.5165. If it does not reach 1.5165 in the next couple of days then it will most likely be trading above 154.00 IMO.
  • #338,946
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:33am Apr 17, 2013 6:33am
Quoting 5percent
the best way to look for real support is wait for the reaction there, don't jump in directly at that number thinking it will reversed in our favor- > that happens very seldom, best is wait for the base resistance or base support to be formed, and that price really exhaused after trendline is clearly broken without a new lower lo or higher hi. Catching a grasshopper and falling knife is what killed most of us -> As most people are tempted to jump in quickly upon seeing volatility and tend to be against it. If a real base is formed, its not too late...
GBP USD 1 hour chart.

1st Green box zone is asia's range. 1.5378-52.

2nd box is the break of trend line in europe and the fundamental catalyst of poorer data etc, failure to reclaim back 1.5330's earlier dive, price turned bearish with the strong marabuzo/bearish engulfing candle. Once a trend is formed, hard to go against in europe.

Up then down - > severe bearish as seller gain control after more offers are feeded in, that will also extend the angle of trend line.
Down then up - > bullish

Current hour 4 is BEARISH marabuzo, 1.52385 is main support previous's bounce area. failure to bounce from there with a bullish price action formed there, or a base of buyers at least, price will have no targets for bear dive.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #338,947
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:37am Apr 17, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Maso
Yes, I'm bearish since the beginning of 2013. Now, still bearish towards reaching 1.44
Still higher highs and higher lows on the daily.

Even the weekly is still technically bullish (excluding the current and not yet closed weekly candle).

Monthly has a bullish reversal formation (but I agree, I think it is only temporary)

No reason yet we can't see mid 54's for nearly 260 pips and a 3rd wave up assuming we see 5180-60 area today
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #338,948
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:38am Apr 17, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Maso
Th point is 1.4832 was not the end of the story. We may tough 1.44.
ok. maybe maybe, but first wait 5032 brake up. but come on those scenarios could be both. why do we care? just follow the trend.
if u will go agains the trend u could scalp but its less profitable. its better to follow the trend not a side correction.
  • #338,949
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:38am Apr 17, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Maso
Yes, I'm bearish since the beginning of 2013. Now, still bearish towards reaching 1.44
if I understand you have sell positions since the beginning of the fall , so you would like to make more money from those positions
  • #338,950
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:38am Apr 17, 2013 6:38am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #338,951
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:39am Apr 17, 2013 6:39am
Quoting Maso
Yes, I'm bearish since the beginning of 2013. Now, still bearish towards reaching 1.44
I'm looking at 44 also

But not yet
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #338,952
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:40am Apr 17, 2013 6:40am
One to wait for, a spot of divergence forming on the 4HR TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #338,953
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:57am Apr 17, 2013 6:57am
I have learned that being patient and avoiding to open lots of positions are the keys of success in trading.

Quoting -sonny-
if I understand you have sell positions since the beginning of the fall , so you would like to make more money from those positions
  • #338,954
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:59am Apr 17, 2013 6:59am
Good common target in different periods of time I would expect 44 in June.


Quoting Ill-b-back
I'm looking at 44 also But not yet
  • #338,955
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:02am Apr 17, 2013 7:02am
look at both hour 1 and hour 4, obviously bull have not yet gain control, consecutively red bars.

Long should look for bull actions before jumping in or use buy stops above hourly hi or resistance.
  • #338,956
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:08am Apr 17, 2013 7:08am
Quoting Maso
Good common target in different periods of time I would expect 44 in June.
Me too, even May
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #338,957
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:10am Apr 17, 2013 7:10am
Are you pulling my leg???

Quoting Ill-b-back
Me too, even May
  • #338,958
  • Apr 17, 2013 7:38am Apr 17, 2013 7:38am
Quoting Maso
Are you pulling my leg???
Not at all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 32 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #338,959
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:07am Apr 17, 2013 8:07am
Minutes came out and the rate fell soon after news released. 1.5253 resistance level is nearby
  • #338,960
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:49am Apr 17, 2013 8:49am
But the required momentum for this big fall is not enough in May. In June we will see a new governor...

Quoting Ill-b-back
Not at all {image} {image}
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