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Sonic R. System

  • #46,121
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:04am Apr 12, 2013 6:04am
USD High Impact Releases Coming, Three of 'Em!

In about 1.5 hours three USD high impact releases hit. Meanwhile AU, EU, and GU have had an initial selloff and are currently being hiked back up by the MMs, who under these circumstances sure look like bears! If so, the US open MMs will add to the mix of bears and there is no telling how high prices might be resurrected before the next heavy selloff.

If the MMs are real strong bears they might even pull off some whipsawing today to wipe out all the other bears and suck into the market "wrong side" pending long orders (both actions create liquidity for the MMs to get more of their own short orders filled). That is always a possibility, so beware of tight SLs if you want to stay in a trade.

Might the MMs suddenly show as being bulls? That too is always a possibility, but with increased activity at the very highs yesterday, and also in the Asian session today, it seems less likely.

-tah
  • #46,122
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:18am Apr 12, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Ravelt
Prof TAH, did i do it the wrong way ? AUDUSD all are shorting EP 1 = 1.0557 EP 2 = 1.0545 Ep 3 = 1.0518 TP = 1.0502 GBPUSD All Are shorting EP 1 = 1.5399 EP 2 = 1.5385 EP 2 = 1.5367 TP = 1.5331 {image} {image}
AU: I like your first two entries and target. Third entry too low and too close to TP.
GU: I like your entries and target.
  • #46,123
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:21am Apr 12, 2013 6:21am
  •  Ravelt
  • | Joined Feb 2013 | Status: The Closer You Look The Less You Se | 194 Posts
Quoting traderathome
AU: I like your first two entries and target. Third entry too close to TP. GU: I like your entries and target.
Thx for your advice, i'll try to improve
  • #46,124
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:32am Apr 12, 2013 6:32am
Quoting DmitryFX
Trend by Cable still Bullish. It's confirmed by Daily charts. {image} Now happend the retracement to FIBO 38.2 level. I went long immediately after bounce from the zone of confluence of Fibo + RN + MidPiv + Volumes activity. Now i am waiting for some more possibilities for re-entry. Looking for TP around 1.55 {image}
GU Day Chart Trend

It is not bullish. What we have here is a pullback in a down trend. And the pullback has already reached the S&R area most likely the target of the pullback. These are bear MMs at work, not bull MMs!

Just how I see it. I could be wrong. Have been before.

-tah
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  • #46,125
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:38am Apr 12, 2013 6:38am
Lil Miss Sonic Loves Lambo..


Sonic

P.S It is not my car..
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  • #46,126
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:54am Apr 12, 2013 6:54am
Quoting traderathome
GU Day Chart Trend It is not bullish. What we have here is a pullback in a down trend. And the pullback has already reached the S&R area most likely the target of the pullback. These are bear MMs at work, not bull MMs! Just how I see it. I could be wrong. Have been before. -tah {image}
Only market can be right. Let's wait what will happend next.
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Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #46,127
  • Apr 12, 2013 6:54am Apr 12, 2013 6:54am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Lil Miss Sonic Loves Lambo.. Sonic P.S It is not my car.. {image}
Yeah, yeah. Stop braggin'! We know you're gonna tell us it belongs to your new trainee that you've been working with since he came on-board this month!

Real cute daughter you have there, Sonic. If you hadn't stopped wearing dresses, I'd never be able to tell you two apart!
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  • #46,128
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:00am Apr 12, 2013 7:00am
Quoting traderathome
Yeah, yeah. Stop braggin'! We know you're gonna tell us it belongs to your new trainee that you've been working with since he came on-board this month! Real cute daughter you have there, Sonic. If you hadn't stopped wearing dresses, I'd never be able to tell you two apart! {image}

Thx you Sir..
It is such a blessing for me to have you here..




Sonic
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  • #46,129
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:01am Apr 12, 2013 7:01am
GJ Re-entry

Looking to re-enter short in area depicted in yellow. This is a good mover lately. It might make yet another good move today. Just don't know if US MMs will move price back up, and if they do then how far. Not looking to be greedy, so if my entry is hit and it continues up, it is ok. It it does hit my entry and continues on up sufficiently (another 20+ pips) I might add a Scout short also.
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  • #46,130
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:03am Apr 12, 2013 7:03am
Quoting traderathome
GU Day Chart Trend It is not bullish. What we have here is a pullback in a down trend. And the pullback has already reached the S&R area most likely the target of the pullback. These are bear MMs at work, not bull MMs! Just how I see it. I could be wrong. Have been before. -tah {image}
TAH,

Just want to say I appreciate your analysis and often stop by to read it. Often, we are thinking much the same. Helps me clarify my thinking. But did want to express my appreciation for your hard work. I do not use the Sonic system as I have my own and not sure I truly understand it.

I use an indicator and pin bars for reversals. Do not use indicators often, but I think any will do to help identify the potential for reversal.

I will include an example from last night that might be helpful.

Scott
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #46,131
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:06am Apr 12, 2013 7:06am
Quoting traderathome
Per Tick Volume? Islander, everybody picks their own tree to climb and what limb to perch on. If you are asking if "per tick volume" is helpful, I don't know. I suspect not, because I have never seen it and I do fine. I use normal TF volumes, but highlighted via (PVA) to make it easier to associate price bars with volume bars, and their relative changes in significance, which is the most important and reliable aspect of volume but only if analyzed relative to S&R. And this display, I am finding, has no peers even though forex volume is not even...
Thank you TAH for your time in writing such a comprehensive reply. My question was triggered by the chart that I posted, where the"volumes" shown varied from ~1,000 to 9,000 and hence I was making a comparison on that chart as I appreciate that we are making "activity" comparisons and the point of my query was to see if you & Sonic felt this was worth further investigation.

As you correctly say, you have developed an excellent system which can generate substantial, consistant rewards for those who take the trouble and work to use it as instructed - so what more is needed

Its the old R&D Engineer in me that keeps looking for an extra edge

BTW - great entries on €J from both of you
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #46,132
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:11am Apr 12, 2013 7:11am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Lil Miss Sonic Loves Lambo.. Sonic P.S It is not my car.. {image}
Perhaps Miss Sonic would like to be a Police Driver in Dubai......
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #46,133
  • Edited 7:58am Apr 12, 2013 7:32am | Edited 7:58am
GJ Short Trade:

Entered short (per previous post), a Classic re-entry trade. No SL, and TP is tentative.
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  • #46,134
  • Apr 12, 2013 7:34am Apr 12, 2013 7:34am
Reason why TP @ 129.24x....

Inserted Video


Sonic
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  • #46,135
  • Edited 8:09am Apr 12, 2013 7:47am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Entered short, a Scout based on the MMs having pushed up the price, above the whole number, with high volumes appearing on M1 while price is above the whole number. Also, this rise is baseless except for the upcoming USD release. So, it may well be the MMs are simply hiking the price to load up on shorts, fully intending to run the price back down later, regardless of what is released. We'll see. This could go higher, especially if the MMs are bears. When the release hits, they could (have done many times before) drive prices higher...
GU Short Trade:

Just added short trade #2, a Classic short. No SL at this time, and TP1 is tentative.
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  • #46,136
  • Apr 12, 2013 8:18am Apr 12, 2013 8:18am
Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Just added short trade #2, a Classic short. No SL at this time, and TP1 is tentative. {image}
GU Short Trade:

Added short trade #3, a Scout based on M1 confirming highest relative volume at each of the highs achieved by the MMs (confirmed bears shorting at highs). No SL and the TP remains tentative.
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  • #46,137
  • Apr 12, 2013 8:19am Apr 12, 2013 8:19am
Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Just added short trade #2, a Classic short. No SL at this time, and TP1 is tentative. {image}
need to break this TL
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  • #46,138
  • Edited 8:57am Apr 12, 2013 8:27am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Added short trade #3, a Scout based on M1 confirming highest relative volume at each of the highs achieved by the MMs (confirmed bears shorting at highs). No SL and the TP remains tentative. {image} {image}
Quoting walkman
need to break this TL {image}
GU Break of Trend Line or "Arrive Late for the Date"

What your chart shows would be confirming of a move down, yes. However, that won't happen until the MMs are fully loaded up on shorts and ready to push the price down. For me, I'd rather be building shorts where they are, so long as I have sound evidence to feel confident about doing so, before the MARK DOWN run begins.

Only price action together with volume, in conjunction with S&R, can provide that sound evidence. No other indicators can. Period.

Furthermore, waiting for a TL break is a double edged sword. What if the TL break is made and then entry is made, and then PA reverses because the MMs head faked? That puts the trader in a bad trade and at the worse possible price!

So, I like to determine if the MMs are bulls or bears, and if they are taking profits or loading up, .......collect all sound evidence before entering a trade. This yields better entry levels and for a more reliable trade. Is this method infallible? No. Nothing is, but it has a reliability factor that is better than anything else I have ever seen.

-tah
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  • #46,139
  • Apr 12, 2013 8:32am Apr 12, 2013 8:32am
Quoting traderathome
GU Break of Trend Line What your chart shows would be confirming of a move down, yes. However, that won't happen until the MMs are fully loaded up on shorts and ready to push the price down. For me, I'd rather be building shorts where they are so long as I have good evidence to feel confident about doing so, before the MARK DOWN run begins. -tah {image}
I think if it breaks fibo 23 then it goes down

I expect some reaction from fibo 23 zone

i put TP before fibo
  • #46,140
  • Apr 12, 2013 8:44am Apr 12, 2013 8:44am
Letīs see how this one goes...

Regards,

H .
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