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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #338,761
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:46pm Apr 11, 2013 11:46pm
Daily and Weekly Charts as below.

2 weekly & Weekly - Previous Bullish Three Outside Up & Bullish Engulfing Completed.
Daily - Two coiling bars within a Mother Bar - Upside Break Completed.
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  • #338,762
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:11am Apr 12, 2013 12:11am
I have short gbp @ 1.5323 and long @ 1.5345 What should I do first ?
and I saw and read in this reply gbp is bullish.
  • #338,763
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:22am Apr 12, 2013 12:22am
Quoting alam88009
I have short gbp @ 1.5323 and long @ 1.5345 What should I do first ? and I saw and read in this reply gbp is bullish.
You have a locked in loss of only 22-26 pips +- spreads.

You can do breakout trade above 1.5415 for 1.5431-51 or higher with positive balance to square out.

Vice Versa, you can short @ resistance, and square off once balance is BE or + some pips. And re look at the situation.

I only hedge with positive balance, its lucky that you hedged that buy @ 1.5345, if not your more under-water.

Note 1.5361 is crucial for the down side.

Or if you are really bear out looker, you can close your long in profit to push up your balance first, then when price retraces, you drop off your sell with smaller losses.

If you are bullish bias, do further buy stop above hi to catch the up move, you should get a positive balance with 2 buy trades sooner or later, since its only 25pips negative +-.

This is how i hedge for breakout.

04.05.2013 05:16 04.05.2013 23:57GBPUSD Buy *** - - 1.52240 1.53428 118.8*** 18h 40m 1.08% [ 118.8 pips + ]

04.05.2013 04:19 04.08.2013 18:17GBPUSD Sell*** - - 1.52397 1.52671 -27.4*** 3d -0.26% [ - 27.4 pips ]

118 - 27? still a 90+

Just sharing my opinion, take the advice on YOUR OWN RISK and due diligence.
Quote
One more key note, the only sole reasons why so many retail traders are failing is because they are too easily influenced by others! Please trade accordingly to your own risk appetite and objective, have a clear trading plan with your own system of entry and exit, losses are part of trading, no one can nurse every freaking trade to become a winner, we ain't god to decide! And those shorters from 1.4830-1.5250 or etc, if they are so biased of shorts then they failed to look at the potential long sets up, and be caught against the current momentum of trend. As trader like us, we are small fry, we should look for high probability set up with minimal risks and costs that does not affect our emotions and capital management and try to go with the flow of trend or cut our losers short! Why bother being the god to decide if a pair meant to go down or up? Unless one is freaking trade a super swing of 400-1000 pips take profit or more, if not i seriously think most trader like us only aim for 20-100 pips avg, then why decide whether its going up or down? Just trade accordingly with our own plans and don't listen to others blindly, you can take their points and opinions. But ultimately you are the one deciding as the money belongs to you not them!.

If one is too easily influenced just by comments, then i advice not to even look at news or forum, as 95% are biased for their set up trying to influence other peers to side their set up. Price action is quite clear cut, a marabuzo of price that pierce the current resistance will lift price higher, we don't know where is the resistance until the rejection occurs along with fundamental catalyst.

Thanks finish ranting.
  • #338,764
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:31am Apr 12, 2013 12:31am
Quoting 5percent
You have a locked in loss of only 22-26 pips +- spreads. You can do breakout trade above 1.5415 for 1.5431-51 or higher with positive balance to square out. Vice Versa, you can short @ resistance, and square off once balance is BE or + some pips. And re look at the situation. I only hedge with positive balance, its lucky that you hedged that buy @ 1.5345, if not your more under-water. Note 1.5361 is crucial for the down side. Or if you are really bear out looker, you can close your long in profit to push up your balance first, then when price retraces,...
I was thinking if I cut my short in here and I take long 1 lot
but I scared
  • #338,765
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:36am Apr 12, 2013 12:36am
Quoting alam88009
I was thinking if I cut my short in here it and I take long 1 lot but I scared
then obviously, you need to stop trading live

Trading with " fear or scared " factors meant that you are not prepare to take on the possible risks and losses that can occur in this high risk instrument that's almost equivalent to gambling if without proper risk and money management and trading plan.

Then go back to Demo or micro account with 0.01 lot size to train yourself until you are confident of your own rules and trading plan. If you can't take the challenge, then don't be a trader, be an investor. Look for pamm or trader to invest instead and manage them as if they are your trade which makes it simpler with ur own stop loss management.

There should be a risk + costs and a specific target of each set up. Without a technical analysis to help you identify the risk and cost, its just like taking a bet in this arena.

Just flip a coin then in the future with a 1:2RR, u sure survive and make profit then what u are facing now.
  • #338,766
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:45am Apr 12, 2013 12:45am
Quoting 5percent
then obviously, you need to stop trading live Trading with " fear or scared " factors meant that you are not prepare to take on the possible risks and losses that can occur in this high risk instrument that's almost equivalent to gambling if without proper risk and money management and trading plan. Then go back to Demo or micro account with 0.01 lot size to train yourself until you are confident of your own rules and trading plan. If you can't take the challenge, then don't be a trader, be an investor. Look for pamm or trader to invest instead...

OK lah iwill wait if the price goes under 1.5382 I will cut my short position an I take long
If the price not going down below 1.5382 I will hold may short and the price above 1.5410 I will take 1 lot long
  • #338,767
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:48am Apr 12, 2013 12:48am
Quoting alam88009
OK lah iwill wait if the price goes under 1.5382 I will cut my short position an I take long If the price not going down below 1.5382 I will hold may short and the price above 1.5410 I will take 1 lot long
ok not bad, at least u can identified current range. Take note of that asia's lo and asia's high.

A drop below 1.5382 is imminent to test former hi @ 1.5361, however can dipped to even 1.5340* the place where it pushed up instead.

Good luck.
  • #338,768
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:56am Apr 12, 2013 12:56am
Quoting 5percent
ok not bad, at least u can identified current range. Take note of that asia's lo and asia's high. A drop below 1.5382 is imminent to test former hi @ 1.5361, however can dipped to even 1.5340* the place where it pushed up instead. Good luck.

Okay Thank You for advices
Wish me luck
  • #338,769
  • Apr 12, 2013 1:42am Apr 12, 2013 1:42am
Quoting alam88009
Okay Thank You for advices Wish me luck
Good luck to you..
And good luck to everyone too...

I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #338,770
  • Apr 12, 2013 2:11am Apr 12, 2013 2:11am
Quoting 5percent
ok not bad, at least u can identified current range. Take note of that asia's lo and asia's high. A drop below 1.5382 is imminent to test former hi @ 1.5361, however can dipped to even 1.5340* the place where it pushed up instead. Good luck.

1.5340 are you sure touche will be up again ?
  • #338,771
  • Apr 12, 2013 2:19am Apr 12, 2013 2:19am
Quoting alam88009
1.5340 are you sure touche will be up again ?
i am not god, i only say that that's the area of burst, which may provide some support only .


Like i recommended, the methods as mentioned in previous post.

* Take profit of long, and either short from resistance, then balance Positive sq off the smaller short under upon retraces with smaller losses. [ Buy stop above hi to catch possible breakout]

* Ask yourself what's your objective? You want to get 50 - 100 or 200 pips or you just want to break off negative pips and back to positive balance to re-look the new set up and situation? You want to nurse the long or nurse the short? Or you just want to make money


take advices/opinions on ur own risk and due diligence
GL.
  • #338,772
  • Apr 12, 2013 2:25am Apr 12, 2013 2:25am
Quoting 5percent
i am not god, i only say that that's the area of burst, which may provide some support only . Like i recommended, the methods as mentioned in previous post. * Take profit of long, and either short from resistance, then balance Positive sq off the smaller short under upon retraces with smaller losses. [ Buy stop above hi to catch possible breakout] * Ask yourself what's your objective? You want to get 50 - 100 or 200 pips or you just want to break off negative pips and back to positive balance to re-look the new set up and situation? You want to...
Yes no body knows about that for sure
  • #338,773
  • Apr 12, 2013 3:16am Apr 12, 2013 3:16am
A nice looking Rising Wedge from Autochartist analysis. I would wait for a break and the go short
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  • #338,774
  • Edited 4:26am Apr 12, 2013 3:30am | Edited 4:26am
Just revising weekly reversal /pullback action & daily tf interaction.
real pullback to break 5630 /over 50% fib & even 5830/over 61.8% fib . without, may not at all at this stage , another leg down towards 4444 or low to arrange it again .
Daily accommodating in the weekly action with reversal & should correction & again more reversal action or pull back . so far more or less strong reversal done , reached 38.4% fib and certainly expecting a correction action daily level , A to b next before C up towards pull back target if all ok. B correction wave can be 5100 to 5034 low , upto previous low ,long . if no correction & somehow continue wave a direct to the pb then at least 5250/5200 ok to up further .

Anyway tit for tat , as it down so it up then no formula , go direct towards target , over 5344 soon. HOPE not 5250/00 a minimum level next with early confirmation 5350,5319,5292 & last 5239.

After all , market reaction ( fake or real pull back ) like this was very expected too as if it happen failure now or soon , will be a great event/disaster for the next world economy as a whole , gold price below 1540/26 or better say 1500 to where? over 1000 $ with even breaks limit there 1032 to down !!!!!! and the world go back 2008/9 status if ever anybody thought of !!!!!!!!!!!! anyway , my target /expectation there for long time .Impossible to possible , reduce your income to half or one third increased by that time to reduce the market price , otherwise one at this present income will buy the market soon they reach 2008/9 status & jump Up again !!!

lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #338,775
  • Apr 12, 2013 3:43am Apr 12, 2013 3:43am
there should be reaction up.

Nobody knows how strong
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  • #338,776
  • Apr 12, 2013 3:46am Apr 12, 2013 3:46am
Quoting 5percent
Expecting 38.2 to hold some resistance on the daily chart.] 1.5410 was the drop off point which started the further sell off to 1.4830. Short @ 1.5405-13, Stop loss 1.5455. Risk 50 pips for Take profit level 1: 1.5361, Level 2: 1.5300, Level 3: 1.5260 – Intra-day Semi Swing. Swing -> Take Profit Level 1: 1.5300, Level 2: 1.5250, Level 3: 1.5200. Key level : 1.5361*, a break under 1.5361 is important for the retracement downwards. Maintain a close above 1.5361 remains relatively healthy for the bull set up. Conservative -> Once 1.5361 is overlapped...
arrived tp level 1.
  • #338,777
  • Apr 12, 2013 3:48am Apr 12, 2013 3:48am
38.2% 6349-4830 in the 1st 1/2 of a previous weekly swing lo zone (non immed) is where the supply came in at yesterday's hi-5411.....price challenging a previous 4hr/daily swing hi zone at the current pullback lo around 23.6% 5197-5411

G/L
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ex member
  • #338,778
  • Apr 12, 2013 4:29am Apr 12, 2013 4:29am
Quoting 5percent
arrived tp level 1.
What now ? gbp still going down ?
  • #338,779
  • Apr 12, 2013 4:44am Apr 12, 2013 4:44am
[quote=5percent;6597773]You have a locked in loss of only 22-26 pips +- spreads. You can do breakout trade above 1.5415 for 1.5431-51 or higher with positive balance to square out. Vice Versa, you can short @ resistance, and square off once balance is BE or + some pips. And re look at the situation. I only hedge with positive balance, its lucky that you hedged that buy @ 1.5345, if not your more under-water. Note 1.5361 is crucial for the down side. Or if you are really bear out looker, you can close your long in profit to push up your balance first, then when price retraces, you drop off your sell with smaller losses. If you are bullish bias, do further buy stop above hi to catch the up move, you should get a positive balance with 2 buy trades sooner or later, since its only 25pips negative +-. This is how i hedge for breakout. 04.05.2013 05:16 04.05.2013 23:57 GBPUSD Buy *** - - 1.52240 1.53428 118.8 *** 18h 40m 1.08% [ 118.8 pips + ] 04.05.2013 04:19 04.08.2013 18:17 GBPUSD Sell *** - - 1.52397 1.52671 -27.4 *** 3d -0.26% [ - 27.4 pips ] 118 - 27? still a 90+ Just sharing my opinion, take the advice on YOUR OWN RISK and due diligence. Thanks finish ranting.[/quote

I am closing my short position and waitung to pul back up
  • #338,780
  • Apr 12, 2013 4:51am Apr 12, 2013 4:51am
Quoting 5percent
Expecting 38.2 to hold some resistance on the daily chart.] 1.5410 was the drop off point which started the further sell off to 1.4830. Short @ 1.5405-13, Stop loss 1.5455. Risk 50 pips for Take profit level 1: 1.5361, Level 2: 1.5300, Level 3: 1.5260 – Intra-day Semi Swing. Swing -> Take Profit Level 1: 1.5300, Level 2: 1.5250, Level 3: 1.5200. Key level : 1.5361*, a break under 1.5361 is important for the retracement downwards. Maintain a close above 1.5361 remains relatively healthy for the bull set up. Conservative -> Once 1.5361 is overlapped...
Key level : 1.5361*, a break under 1.5361 is important for the retracement downwards. Maintain a close above 1.5361 remains relatively healthy for the bull set up.in what time frame sir
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