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  • #783,801
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:26am Apr 6, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Nerys13
I don't think you actually read my comment before you answered it, do read it, do.
I read your post, I know what you wrote. At one point you compare TA to astrology which, in the way many people use it, I'd have to agree with you - because they have no understanding of the market itself, do not observe price action when it matters, and have no real edge with which they can buy low and sell high with any acceptable consistency. But to insinuate that TA is invalid in general because academics fail to find some link in their backtesting is faulty. Those who are successful in analyzing the markets make money. Those who aren't write papers and develop products for others either trying to prove that the market is rigged, "efficient", or something else to explain their losses, or do the exact opposite and just end up becoming snake oil salesmen. There's a reason there are so few profitable traders, and why those few make so much.
  • #783,802
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:30am Apr 6, 2013 10:30am
Quoting 4exNinja
True...but like I said, at least technical traders and baseball fans base their predictions on things that are actually linked to the subject matter on hand (price or baseball results). When it comes to astrology, there is no connection. Jupiter doesn't give a rat's ass about how GU moves
well, yes, you got a point there. but in the end, everything there is, the problem is that we are all trying to predict the one thing that is the most complex matter ever. trying to predict humans. pa is created by humans.

with that in mind, trying to predict a player's performance in the future, is just out of whack. though looking back on how it was years before Beane ran athletics, when no one really took sabermetrics seriously, even though it had already existed decades before, is kinda like showing us to never take things for granted.
  • #783,803
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:34am Apr 6, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Kanzler
I read your post, I know what you wrote. At one point you compare TA to astrology which, in the way many people use it, I'd have to agree with you - because they have no understanding of the market itself, do not observe price action when it matters, and have no real edge with which they can buy low and sell high with any acceptable consistency. But to insinuate that TA is invalid in general because academics fail to find some link in their backtesting is faulty. Those who are successful in analyzing the markets make money. Those who aren't...
You may read it but you clearly missed the point then. My point was, that planetery trading looks just as silly to TA people as TA is to fundies.

They could draw same argument, just because there's no correlation with plantery movements doesn't mean it doesn't improve chances of good trade.

As For your comments "hen why are you here? You have the same shallow uninformed idea of what "technical analysis" entails that many other academics have"

As I said we (including me) disagree with academics, otherwise we wouldn't be here. Hence it gave me the impression that you did not read my comment because you accusing me having "shallow uninoformed opinion" that I never said I shared.

People like you is the reason why I tend to avoid posting on these forums, a lot of hot blood raging on which makes you unpleasant to communicate with.
  • #783,804
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:37am Apr 6, 2013 10:37am
Quoting ec_creep
well, yes, you got a point there. but in the end, everything there is, the problem is that we are all trying to predict the one thing that is the most complex matter ever. trying to predict humans. pa is created by humans. with that in mind, trying to predict a player's performance in the future, is just out of whack. though looking back on how it was years before Beane ran athletics, when no one really took sabermetrics seriously, even though it had already existed decades before, is kinda like showing us to never take things for granted.
But that's the whole point...just read the main definition of sabermetrics...

Quote
Sabermetrics is the specialized analysis of baseball through objective evidence...

The important bit is in bold. It has some success because it's based on objective evidence. It might not be perfectly accurately, but given it takes at least some objective evidence into consideration, it has a positive effect on the probability of success. The level obviously depends on the quality of the OBJECTIVE analysis.

Astrology on the other hand isn't objective...so it simply can't work. It's simply not linked to how price behaves.

Fibonacci on the other hand is for example because a critical mass of traders use it...so if you objectively apply it and enough others do too, then you increase the probability of success.
  • #783,805
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:38am Apr 6, 2013 10:38am
Quoting Nerys13
You may read it but you clearly missed the point then. My point was, that planetery trading looks just as silly to TA people as TA is to fundies. They could draw same argument, just because there's no correlation with plantery movements doesn't mean it doesn't improve chances of good trade. As For your comments "hen why are you here? You have the same shallow uninformed idea of what "technical analysis" entails that many other academics have" As I said we (including me) disagree with academics, otherwise we wouldn't be here. Hence it gave me...
I never claimed to be "pleasant" to communicate with. When there are as many trolls and people looking for validation on this forum as there are though my tolerance for that kind of behavior is quite low. Your post certainly did give the impression that you were of that persuasion, but I'll take you at your word here and drop it.
  • #783,806
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:43am Apr 6, 2013 10:43am
Quoting Nerys13
You may read it but you clearly missed the point then. My point was, that planetery trading looks just as silly to TA people as TA is to fundies.
That's incorrect.

Why?

Because most of the trading volume is now based on algorithms...and guess what they use to trade. TECHNICALS. AT least most of them do

Fundamental news influences how traders act, but given that traders aren't 100% rational, you can't perfectly predict the outcome of price based on fundamental news (especially in the short/medium term). In order to get around this, you look at price action and check out what traders are ACTUALLY DOING. So yes, fundamentals have an impact, but I base my trades on what traders are actually doing (which you can figure out with TA) rather than trying to guess how they will react based on often misleading fundamental news.
  • #783,807
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:59am Apr 6, 2013 10:59am
Quoting Kanzler
I never claimed to be "pleasant" to communicate with. When there are as many trolls and people looking for validation on this forum as there are though my tolerance for that kind of behavior is quite low. Your post certainly did give the impression that you were of that persuasion, but I'll take you at your word here and drop it.
I never said I expect you to be pleasant, I do however expect people to have mutual respect and not insult others view as shallow and uninformed, especially since person being attacked never warranted such an attack.

Quote
That's incorrect.

Why?

Because most of the trading volume is now based on algorithms...and guess what they use to trade. TECHNICALS. AT least most of them do

Fundamental news influences how traders act, but given that traders aren't 100% rational, you can't perfectly predict the outcome of price based on fundamental news (especially in the short/medium term). In order to get around this, you look at price action and check out what traders are ACTUALLY DOING. So yes, fundamentals have an impact, but I base my trades on what traders are...

Well some use technicals, others media, others news, others rumors. The ones that use technicals though seem to make t heir money off small retailers like us. Fundumental is not really just news impact, it's also the fundumental macro reason for movements, credit evaluation, interest rate prediction based on macro economic information. Saying fundumental news is misleading is a bit of a stretch as it each realease is a peice of puzzle that gives the direction of the long term trend.

They all have merits in their own field, banks have chartists and fundies although meeting anybody working in the industry I always get a bollocking for using technicals.

Still though my very first point that should be again explained, don't demean planetenary guys, as your actions are similar to that of fundie being condescending to people who use technicals, if it works for you personally then that's good enough, no need to think anything else is inferior or superior.
  • #783,808
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:03am Apr 6, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Nerys13
I never said I expect you to be pleasant, I do however expect people to have mutual respect and not insult others view as shallow and uninformed, especially since person being attacked never warranted such an attack.
If you feel you were slighted please add me to your ignore list, it won't hurt me in the least.

Quote
Well some use technicals, others media, others news, others rumors. The ones that use technicals though seem to make t heir money off small retailers like us. Fundumental is not really just news impact, it's also the fundumental macro reason for movements, credit evaluation, interest rate prediction based on macro economic information. Saying fundumental news is misleading is a bit of a stretch as it each realease is a peice of puzzle that gives the direction of the long term trend. They all have merits in their own field, banks have chartists and...

Personal opinion is that fundamentals only really flesh out on the longer term charts...shorter term they really have little practical influence except maybe trend bias if you use that.
  • #783,809
  • Edited 11:20am Apr 6, 2013 11:05am | Edited 11:20am
TA is a joke to me. This is about information.

I belive there are Algos using TA indicators to enter trades and such. So yeah, you could have that on favor TA.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #783,810
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:06am Apr 6, 2013 11:06am
I'm not demeaning astrological traders...I'm trying to help them because their trades are based on a 100% arbitrary system that has no connection to price action whasoever. It will cost them money in the long run.

And again, both fundamental analysis and technical analysis works because it's actually linked to price. Some prefer one fundamentals, others prefer technicals...both means can lead to the same conclusion. The only difference is that technicals show you what price is doing (so you can use statistical analysis to analysis it) while fundamentals are based on news and statistics that can be manipulated by a political agenda...at least in the short to medium run. I think fundamentals are important, but more so in the long run rather than short to medium term.

Also, like I said, most trades today are done by algorithms...they only look at price action for the most part (aka technicals).

I prefer technicals, but I am not saying fundamentals don't work...I just thing it's tougher to be good at fundamental analysis due to all the media/political noise.

By saying astrology works you're essentially saying "flipping a coin works"
  • #783,811
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:12am Apr 6, 2013 11:12am
Quoting 4exNinja
But that's the whole point...just read the main definition of sabermetrics... The important bit is in bold. It has some success because it's based on objective evidence. It might not be perfectly accurately, but given it takes at least some objective evidence into consideration, it has a positive effect on the probability of success. The level obviously depends on the quality of the OBJECTIVE analysis. Astrology on the other hand isn't objective...so it simply can't work. It's simply not linked to how price behaves. Fibonacci on the other hand is...
my point was this,
Quoting ec_creep
well, yes, you got a point there. but in the end, everything there is, the problem is that we are all trying to predict the one thing that is the most complex matter ever. trying to predict humans. pa is created by humans...
objectively, subjectively, depends on the context. everything can be both. sorry, I am the kind who think outside the box... give them some time, perhaps they do have a point

regarding saber, I wasn't implying that I did not understand that. I am a saber fan, mate. and if you are following that, the whole thing about BABIP, there is always one thing which can't be explained thru data alone (objective evidence). humans, maaan. but, yes, the increased probability of success by using these tested approaches, I agree on that. give some time we may have missed some things...
  • #783,812
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:15am Apr 6, 2013 11:15am
Quoting SugarPink
Whoever uses logic to trade knows TA is a joke. This is about information. I belive there are Algos using TA indicators to enter trades and such. So yeah, you could have that on favor TA.
Are you trying to insult all the regular participants of this thread or did you do that accidentally?
  • #783,813
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:18am Apr 6, 2013 11:18am
People think of Fundamental Analysis has imports, exports, how economies are doing, interest rates, defecits of countries, flow of capital etc etc..
I think people who trade fundamentals dont trade that, FA also evolves with time and the fundamental indicators investors on the 80's and 90's and 00's were focusing are all diferents. sometimes month per month. Fundamental morphs a lot and its shaped by its own time.

Fundamental Analysis could also be predicting political moves, at least for me thats how I see it.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #783,814
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:20am Apr 6, 2013 11:20am
Quoting Kanzler
Are you trying to insult all the regular participants of this thread or did you do that accidentally?
okay I am going to take that back. it really sounded mean and insulting. sorry
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #783,815
  • Edited 12:59pm Apr 6, 2013 11:29am | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting Ken A
Sorry to hear that, probably too late to say this but you can't blindly follow anyone when it comes to trade decision.
Quoting jynx_km
u have right - it is to late..... i give up.... I will close the position on market price, back my money and buy a rope...

I hope you were joking about "buying the rope" thing.

I don't know what method you have been practicing for entry and exit but I suggest you pay attention to Daily/Weekly/Monthly Support and Resistance in addition to your risk management. Wait for PA to come to you then execute entry/exit instead of trading noises or when PA is flat.

Use this Auto Pivot to calculate the Daily/Weekly/Monthly and Mid of Support and Resistant (Demand and Supply). Note: I found it on FF so the credit should go to the author.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AutoPivotIndicator_ver5.mq4   31 KB | 214 downloads

It's very accurate and mostly respected by more predictable pairs such as USD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, etc for all sessions right from Pacific, Asia, Franky, London and US. But not for Crosses such as EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD etc.

Make sure your data feed or broker Daily Cut Off is 17:00 EST or GMT 22:00 (London Time). If your broker Daily cut off even off by 1 hour calculation is off and useless. I also found this is very useful to calculate Daily Pivot as per GMT shift in case your broker cut off GMT+1, +3, etc. Once you know the Daily Pivot can manually calculate Daily as I haven't found one that re-calculate everything based on GMT shift to get in sync with New York 17:00 EST.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Pivot Options.mq4   24 KB | 217 downloads

Get familiar with one more predictable pair such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY before moving on other pairs or trading crosses. Trading noises for Crosses are very doable if you are looking for +10, +15, +20 pips but it will take more time and trained eyes to play the noises in major correlated pair such as E/J, U/J and E/U.

I also use Trend Line more as a benchmark for geographical location where PA is at but not as trade decision. All in all horizontal lines are more important to me. Keep eyes and ears on news for fundamental/policy changes and on news which will affect sentiments (Risk-on/Risk-Off) but, stay away from reading articles from story tellers which basically tell me nothing but two i.e., if it's not going up then down. As you may very well know no one is able to predict with 10/10 accuracy in Forex with exception to trolls, internet shouters, spammers, fraudsters, swindlers, et al.

Hope it could somehow help and to hear from you soon.
  • #783,816
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:36am Apr 6, 2013 11:36am
Quoting Nerys13
I don't think you actually read my comment before you answered it, do read it, do.
Guess the word "please" is obsolete and no more in use.
  • #783,817
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:38am Apr 6, 2013 11:38am
Quoting SugarPink
TA is a joke to me. This is about information. I belive there are Algos using TA indicators to enter trades and such. So yeah, you could have that on favor TA.
QA is TA in a way, just way more sophisticated. So, yes, many algos use TA, I say, though they probably wonīt trade chart patterns. But who really knows? Complete black box for most of us.
  • #783,818
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:40am Apr 6, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Ken A
Guess the word "please" is obsolete and no more in use.
Is that a dig at me? Why would I be ever so polite to person who was very rude to me?
  • #783,819
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:41am Apr 6, 2013 11:41am
Oh and btw there is a really well-known study which surveyed the trading habits of Hong Kong forex dealers in the 90s (not too sure about time and place). Result: In the short term most of them use TA but its importance diminishes over the longer term. Problem is that TA encompasses almost everything so I donīt know how this helps.
  • #783,820
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:50am Apr 6, 2013 11:50am
Quoting Nerys13
Is that a dig at me? Why would I be ever so polite to person who was very rude to me?

Hehe relax. Oh Btw, is Nery a Ms or Mr?

Kanzler, be nice to a girl don't be rude.
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