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  • #782,841
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:26am Apr 4, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I know it is just silly m1 chart, but see the compression range? It will soon go poof. And after such a strong move up, well, theory says up. {image}
1.2861 holding, next stop 1.2903 if it goes..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #782,842
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:28am Apr 4, 2013 10:28am
Quoting 4exNinja
NEVER (!!!!) trade with money you can't afford to lose, and only start trading live (or with amounts that matter to you) once you thoroughly back and forward tested your system. If you haven't been profitable on a demo account for at least (!!!) 3 months, don't even think about going live. Of course some might disagree, but I would never trade based on an untested strategy.
Alternatively, trade with a size which won't break the bank if it goes wrong. One of my brokers, ETX Capital allow you to play with a size of just £0.50 per pip. Provided you are disciplined, you can't go too far wrong at this level.
  • #782,843
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:29am Apr 4, 2013 10:29am
Quoting Ken A
This the tricky part is, you will have to train your eyes watching the movement and become as visual memory predicting where the movement of each pair (E/J, U/J and E/U) will impact the other pair and most importantly to see the real move from noises caused by other pairs. Well, at least I find this is the easiest for me to trade Yen Crosses. If you know the levels, say for E/U and U/J you can accurately predict where it's going to hit for E/J and vice versa. Probably this Excel sheet will help, there are too many combinations and probabilities...
I use a simple correlation indi based on RSI to pick up when EU EY and UY points in the same direction.
Combined with trade levels/beats of 50 pips on EY. It provides high probability trades and if the correlation stacks up, normally a big ADR is printed. The downside is that you may have a few days when correlation is out of whack but when they line up , you make it up in no time at all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_04 Apr. 04 17.18.jpg Size: 60 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #782,844
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:31am Apr 4, 2013 10:31am
Quoting Ken A
Thanks I actually use the spreadsheet to explain as it is easier than words
Hey Ken,

I've often observed that E/U and E/J move in sync. Does that mean that U/J is stagnant at these times?
Are there times when the three pairs will not behave according to the set of equations you presented earlier?

Cheers for your advice, much appreciated.
  • #782,845
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:32am Apr 4, 2013 10:32am
watching g/u here.. nice touch and it might even slide a little given the time of day.. on the side atm..

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6xpWi6CC/
  • #782,846
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:33am Apr 4, 2013 10:33am
Caught this one before the Easter Break

Not foolproof but high enough hitrate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_04 Apr. 04 17.31.jpg Size: 80 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #782,847
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:39am Apr 4, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Gleneagles
I use a simple correlation indi based on RSI to pick up when EU EY and UY points in the same direction. Combined with trade levels/beats of 50 pips on EY. It provides high probability trades and if the correlation stacks up, normally a big ADR is printed. The downside is that you may have a few days when correlation is out of whack but when they line up , you make it up in no time at all. {image}
Thanks Geleneagles.

I don't use any indicators as it's too complicated for me to understand and it's taking too much of my attention away but I use Auto Pivot to calculate S/R found on FF. Prior to using this I do it manually and that also taking too much time away from me to trade other pairs.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AutoPivotIndicator_ver5.mq4   31 KB | 206 downloads
  • #782,848
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:40am Apr 4, 2013 10:40am
Quoting lancedes
Hey Ken, I've often observed that E/U and E/J move in sync. Does that mean that U/J is stagnant at these times? Are there times when the three pairs will not behave according to the set of equations you presented earlier? Cheers for your advice, much appreciated.
This is precisely why I prefer to avoid the crosses and only trade the major USD pairs. It can be very frustrating if for example you are shorting EJ and the EU goes bearish and at the same time, UJ cancels out the move. I find it easier to juggle one pair at a time and that way, usually I manage to keep all the balls in the air.
  • #782,849
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:43am Apr 4, 2013 10:43am
Quoting lancedes
Hey Ken, I've often observed that E/U and E/J move in sync. Does that mean that U/J is stagnant at these times? Are there times when the three pairs will not behave according to the set of equations you presented earlier? Cheers for your advice, much appreciated.
most likely EJ and UJ will move together. EU will move in opp .
  • #782,850
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:46am Apr 4, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Vectamart
This is precisely why I prefer to avoid the crosses and only trade the major USD pairs. It can be very frustrating if for example you are shorting EJ and the EU goes bearish and at the same time, UJ cancels out the move. I find it easier to juggle one pair at a time and that way, usually I manage to keep all the balls in the air.
I second this...
phew, I can only watch the crosses, well, ej alone now. not worth the hassle, mate.
enjoy your evening tea
  • #782,851
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:46am Apr 4, 2013 10:46am
NY H4 closing in 15 mins and I cant say I dont like how it looks so far. Looks like nice attempt to break.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #782,852
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:48am Apr 4, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Ken A
Sorry to hear that, probably too late to say this but you can't blindly follow anyone when it comes to trade decision. {image}
u have right - it is to late..... i give up.... I will close the position on market price, back my money and buy a rope...
  • #782,853
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:48am Apr 4, 2013 10:48am
my hearts wants to buy UJ but my mind tells me its at demand zone, who should i listen.
  • #782,854
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:50am Apr 4, 2013 10:50am
I'm waiting to see what price does if it touches the 1.2853 area, then to see if it breaks out to the upside, with a target of 1.2953 or down with a target of 1.2808 area, later on.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #782,855
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:50am Apr 4, 2013 10:50am
Quoting Ken A
Sorry to hear that, probably too late to say this but you can't blindly follow anyone when it comes to trade decision. {image}
Especially since that means you'd be a (blind) investor rather than a real trader...
  • #782,856
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:54am Apr 4, 2013 10:54am
what do u think of selling on all 3 pairs, UJ , EU , EJ ?

my opinion, EU , EJ down , UJ up.
  • #782,857
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:57am Apr 4, 2013 10:57am
Quoting jynx_km
...buy a rope...
DONT do that...
build a decent system, and trade that. paper first. if you build it on your own, you'll most likely know why, when, and how to adjust it. something like that. good luck, mate hope to see you again here, with green pips on your own ofc a lot of wonderful knowledge can be picked up on this wacky thread
  • #782,858
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:59am Apr 4, 2013 10:59am
Quoting Ken A
Sorry to hear that, probably too late to say this but you can't blindly follow anyone when it comes to trade decision. {image}
Nicely said. I wished someone would say this to me a long long time ago. Or at least I read it when I start my first trade
"I set rules to protect myself from myself"
  • #782,859
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:00am Apr 4, 2013 11:00am
Quoting lancedes
Hey Ken, I've often observed that E/U and E/J move in sync. Does that mean that U/J is stagnant at these times?
It could be that U/J rate unchanged in a meaningful pips when there's buying and selling for E/J or E/U.

Quote
Are there times when the three pairs will not behave according to the set of equations you presented earlier? Cheers for your advice, much appreciated.

Yes, when there's direct buying and selling say for U/J, this will create noise in E/J and E/U and others correlated pairs. But whatever the changes can not and impossible to deviate from the formula. So, knowing S/R level for each pair is more important than correlation. Correlations are helpful in prediction as where each pair will move for my case is for entry and exit especially when the pair is ranging.

Well, all world currencies are all correlated but the changes are not so obvious as in 3 largest USD, EUR and JPY.
  • #782,860
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:02am Apr 4, 2013 11:02am
So h4 close nothing special and just confirmed strong R at 1,285. Bulls have some power, but could do better. Seems we are going to be stucked here again, which is starting really to get on my nerves.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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