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EUR/CHF

  • #10,341
  • Apr 4, 2013 7:57am Apr 4, 2013 7:57am
I am holding to my longs, still we are in no mans land, the main problem is that currenty EUR is possitivly correlated to CHF, so even when the euro is gaining the chf is also gaining so the isn't much movement in EUR/CHF. Well still i got possitive swaps and this is planned for a long term possition for me, so not worried too much
  • #10,342
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:56am Apr 4, 2013 9:56am
hmmm, Draghi didn't help much in lowering EURCHF to a buyable region.

Guess we still have to wait for more hiccups in EZ, or a sudden or gradual strengthening in CHF when funds start pouring into the Swiss safe haven fast enough. This week's SNB sight deposits are also disappointing. I was hoping on exodus from Cyprus into Swiss, but probably because of the capital controls made it impossible for the Russians to move their funds out fast. Guess we have to wait a little while longer when Cyprus lifts their capital controls...

Watch Clarke and Dawe on Youtube - Slight problem with the Cypriot Banking System (a joke, hopefully coming true - hear the last part)
Inserted Video
  • #10,343
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:12am Apr 4, 2013 10:12am
My guess:

- Ciprus is too small so it has little impact to chf
- In ciprus the problem was with the bank, not the EURO. So after the capital controll off the money will go to other country, not to other currency, i think. But if somene want to change EUR i think he/she will buy USD rather than CHF. Because USD could strengthen a lot but CHF could not versus EUR
- the only thing could be wrong for EURCHF if Italy has big problem, because Italy is too big, so this capital flow would effect to CHF (or USD)
- The 200 day moving average is 1,2125 now, and it is very strong support.

So may be we could go lower, but i bought a lot amount these levels...


Quoting alaneth
hmmm, Draghi didn't help much in lowering EURCHF to a buyable region. Guess we still have to wait for more hiccups in EZ, or a sudden or gradual strengthening in CHF when funds start pouring into the Swiss safe haven fast enough. This week's SNB sight deposits are also disappointing. I was hoping on exodus from Cyprus into Swiss, but probably because of the capital controls made it impossible for the Russians to move their funds out fast. Guess we have to wait a little while longer when Cyprus lifts their capital controls... Watch Clarke and Dawe...
  • #10,344
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:02am Apr 4, 2013 11:02am
Money can move to Switzerland (bank risk decision) without moving to CHF (currency risk decision).
Just sayin'
  • #10,345
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:39pm Apr 4, 2013 12:39pm
Yep, as i said, even though euro went on rampage (Look at EUR/USD) so did franc with it, which blocked completly gains on EUR/CHF. In current situation i belive that only direct action on EUR.CHF will be able to change situation, otherwise we will stay in stagnation.
  • #10,346
  • Apr 8, 2013 9:39am Apr 8, 2013 9:39am
SNB's weekly Sight Deposits showing a gradual drop. last week was also down 1 billion CHF.

With Cyprus, Italy, Portugal & other EZ members in the limelight, can anyone wonder why funds are still flowing out of Switzerland instead of going in?
  • #10,347
  • Apr 8, 2013 9:50am Apr 8, 2013 9:50am
Quoting alaneth
SNB's weekly Sight Deposits showing a gradual drop. last week was also down 1 billion CHF. With Cyprus, Italy, Portugal & other EZ members in the limelight, can anyone wonder why funds are still flowing out of Switzerland instead of going in?
If you are referring to the CHF 281.665 million figure reported here: http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/g...0130408.en.pdf I don't think a fall in this figure necessarily implies funds flowing out of Switzerland. By my reading, this is the value of deposits held at the SNB by Swiss banks. It doesn't necessarily tell you anything about flows of funds into or out of those Swiss banks.
PK
  • #10,348
  • Apr 8, 2013 9:55am Apr 8, 2013 9:55am
Yes, I'm referring to that link... and yes, it does not refer to the general in/out flow of funds into CH.
It's a rough indication though & foreign reserves are slightly up too recently.

It's pretty boring trading EURCHF these days & I dare not short anymore seeing my mistakes short-scalping at the wrong times and all the advices of longs from 1.23 didn't work out well. Guess I'll just play scalp-long from 1.2135 - or nearer the 1.212 support.
  • #10,349
  • Edited Apr 9, 2013 4:13am Apr 8, 2013 10:23am | Edited Apr 9, 2013 4:13am
Quoting alaneth
Yes, I'm referring to that link... and yes, it does not refer to the general in/out flow of funds into CH. It's a rough indication though & foreign reserves are slightly up too recently.
I haven't made a close study of them, but so far I haven't been able to infer anything useful from these SNB releases of "Important monetary policy data". :-)

Quoting alaneth
It's pretty boring trading EURCHF these days & I dare not short anymore seeing my mistakes short-scalping at the wrong times and all the advices of longs from 1.23 didn't work out well. Guess I'll just play scalp-long from 1.2135 - or nearer the 1.212 support.
:-)

I never mastered scalping, but I am still long at 1,23 (from two months ago and a long way under water at the moment). But it's too early (for me) to conclude that that position "didn't work out well". If in the coming 12 months the CHF bursts through 1,198 before having first got to 1,26 then that for me will be "didn't work out well"!
In the meantime I notice that I get some kind of perverse no-pain-no-gain satisfaction out of seeing my position badly in the red (so long as it remains within projected worst case limits). It's as though this anxiety justifies the very substantial wins that (can) follow when a large long-term bet comes back into the money. We'll see.

PK
  • #10,350
  • Apr 9, 2013 3:58am Apr 9, 2013 3:58am
Anybody knows a broker that still has good positive swaps on EURCHF?
  • #10,351
  • Apr 9, 2013 9:41am Apr 9, 2013 9:41am
Quoting Spanish89
Im planning on buying EUR/CHF at 1.2086/68 @ £48 per pip, target gna be set at 1.2326 with stoploss at 1.97 or below. (£25,632 profit once target is hit) Hoping Draghi's speech tomorrow weakens euro to my entry target.

I bought at 1.2145 and then again at 1.2119,
cashed them all in at 1.2181 though.


Will rebuy after downs tanked down to the low 14,000s
  • #10,352
  • Apr 9, 2013 9:42am Apr 9, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Plofkip
I haven't made a close study of them, but so far I haven't been able to infer anything useful from these SNB releases of "Important monetary policy data". :-) :-) I never mastered scalping, but I am still long at 1,23 (from two months ago and a long way under water at the moment). But it's too early (for me) to conclude that that position "didn't work out well". If in the coming 12 months the CHF bursts through 1,198 before having first got to 1,26 then that for me will be "didn't work out well"! In the meantime I notice that I get some kind...


You should add in more longs at 1.2126 or lower if we get down there again mate.
  • #10,353
  • Apr 9, 2013 10:46am Apr 9, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Spanish89
You should add in more longs at 1.2126 or lower if we get down there again mate.
Yep, looks like this week's opening would have been a good time to enter long, but I'm steering a careful course between my account balance and my broker's margin requirements. If I added more longs and it went the wrong way, I would have to add to my capital in order to be safe down to the SNB's floor/ceiling at 1,20. This is a long-play, patience game for me. In the meantime, though, I have a new account with a second broker where I am being less patient trading mini-lots and having great fun with the USD/JPY.

PK
  • #10,354
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:19am Apr 10, 2013 4:19am
Quoting rcrist
Anybody knows a broker that still has good positive swaps on EURCHF?
EXNESS still does. I am sure there are other brokers who do. You can easily check if the swap is positive in MetaTrader via Symbols window and clicking Properties on the EURCHF pair.
  • #10,355
  • Apr 11, 2013 8:45am Apr 11, 2013 8:45am
Quoting enivid
EXNESS still does. I am sure there are other brokers who do. You can easily check if the swap is positive in MetaTrader via Symbols window and clicking Properties on the EURCHF pair.
Thanks.
  • #10,356
  • Apr 15, 2013 10:15am Apr 15, 2013 10:15am
Can we expect a big move on eur/chf in regard of the gold sell off
  • #10,357
  • Apr 15, 2013 10:22am Apr 15, 2013 10:22am
Quoting matheousse
Can we expect a big move on eur/chf in regard of the gold sell off
Nope, I don't think so. Just a modest gain in EUR when they unload their gold.
Rumors about Cyprus or other EU countries unloading gold reserves are just rumors to date.

I see the other EU nations bailout problem e.g. Slovenia having more downwards effect than gold unloading's upwards effect on the EUR.
  • #10,358
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:05am Apr 17, 2013 11:05am
We will test 1.2 iagain n the next few months for sure
  • #10,359
  • Apr 17, 2013 11:22am Apr 17, 2013 11:22am
Quoting matheousse
We will test 1.2 iagain n the next few months for sure
I am not sure. Big guys beleive that SNB could manage 1,2 peg . It is working more than one and half years. (USD/HKD peg works for more than 5 years)

If it is true the only possible trade is long. When we go lower, the buying pressure is getting stronger. SNB do not have to buy in these level just on 1,2.

This is could be the best trade for hedge funds/other investments. They have a good profit from JPY weekness, Gold trumbles.

I think the next big story will be the CHF weekness.

Fundamentally last year was much wronger for eur/chf: Greek, Italy, Spain etc. And we were before the important ECB decision. So the situation is better this year yet.
  • #10,360
  • Apr 17, 2013 9:30pm Apr 17, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting matheousse
We will test 1.2 again n the next few months for sure
I'm quite sure we will see the floor test again although I cannot estimate a timeframe.
EZ economies are in a quagmire of debt & financial uncertainties.
Germany got downgraded by a 'small' rating agency. An indication of a similar move by larger rating agencies in the near future.

I don't see all this artificial stimulus and bailouts or ESM/EFSF having a lasting effect to prop up the European economy.

Sorry to use hard direct words, but I believe that it is better to teach them to fish than to just give them fish.

In conclusion, I forsee a floor test again.
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