Here you got CHF index in daily time frame, from last year. As we can see the bullish trend has been broken yesterday, today should confirm it. Therefore and also taking into consideretion strong support at 1.2160-1.2190 area, I a long from 1.2170.
I agree with you. Additionally if you see the bigger picture: In the past 10 years there was strong rally in the CHF. In 2011 there was a big spike, which ended with the 1,20 EUR/CHF peg. The last two yeas was a consolitadion after the spike. In the coming months we could see the spike target to the downside. It could be the same large CHF weakness like the JPY was in the last 6 months. The only thing you need is short CHF (long EURCHF, USDCHF) and wait, wait, wait. Yesterday we broke the daily trendline in the CHF_I:
Here you got CHF index in daily time frame, from last year. As we can see the bullish trend has been broken yesterday, today should confirm it. Therefore and also taking into consideretion strong support at 1.2160-1.2190 area, I a long from 1.2170.
The only thing you need is short CHF (long EURCHF, USDCHF) and wait, wait, wait.
Ignored
IMO it makes a difference which CHF pair you choose. If you're playing the long game ("wait, wait, wait") then it matters how far the pair could go in the wrong direction while you are waiting. That determines how large a position can be "safely" opened. The Swiss authorities have announced and implemented a ceiling for the CHF against the EUR, so we can be reasonably confident how far EUR/CHF can go in the wrong direction: to 1,20 and no further. Buying USD/CHF, on the other hand, you don't know how far it could go the other way (unless you have perfect knowledge about EUR/USD ... and if you had that knowledge, you wouldn't be here anyway!).
Yep, not a pretty sight.
Today we've been within 20 pips of the post-Italian-election low of 1,21196.
If we break through that, I am going to be hoping that the SNB is ready with the buy button.
PK
Yep, not a pretty sight. Today we've been within 20 pips of the post-Italian-election low of 1,21196. If we break through that, I am going to be hoping that the SNB is ready with the buy button. PK
I'd say we're there already for a long-term position. Either the SNB maintains the 1,20 limit or it doesn't, and if we're betting that it will then there's not much space for the price to fall to a better entry price.
My rule for myself would be: look at the exposure of the other positions you have (or will want to have while waiting out the long term here) then read your broker's margin rules carefully, work out how large a position you could open now and which would not trigger a margin call down to just below 1,20 (say 1,198 as a safety margin) and then pile in.
I did this in September 2012 and doubled my capital with that one trade by January this year. Unfortunately, I went back in again at 1,23 in February, so I am seriously under water at the moment. Wish I'd waited! But I'm safe so long as we do stay clear of 1,20.
SVME PMI is down, should be moving opposite direction instead.
Its just minilots for me right now.
Anyway & anyhow, I'll still wait for a dip below 1.2050 before seriously reloading.
I believe another hiccup post-Cyprus will be happening in EZ, and investors will fear Cyprus' 'easy' way out is a precedent for other economies to follow, causing EUR to plunge.
I don't see EUR appreciating much in the near future.
Dunno. Looking at the cross rates it seems to be more a EUR fall than a CHF rise, but the EUR news was also the other way (Spanish & Italian unemployment both better than expected). Wasn't "news", so: rumour?
Dunno. Looking at the cross rates it seems to be more a EUR fall than a CHF rise, but the EUR news was also the other way (Spanish & Italian unemployment both better than expected). Wasn't "news", so: rumour?
Ignored
Last year, I wrote about the month end flow effect with this pair:
This effect worked last year, and the current year too. So near month end there is a downward pressure, which is easing at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd days of the months.
I was lucky enough to close my possition from 1.2170 at 1.2199 and now reopened new long at 1.2163 yesterday and today added at 1.2149. We are now at 200 sma and at higly oversold level, so i suspect some retracment from here. Also we can build a strange trend line which is also tested todat. Todays drop comes from franc strenght. But in bigger picture i suspect franc to weaken, as SNB annouced it would like to see it at 1.25000, above which i placed my TP, at 1.25500.
Last year, I wrote about the month end flow effect with this pair: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ow#post5439244 This effect worked last year, and the current year too. So near month end there is a downward pressure, which is easing at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd days of the months.
Ignored
Thx, for sharing very useful info....
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
...... But in bigger picture i suspect franc to weaken, as SNB annouced it would like to see it at 1.25000, above which i placed my TP, at 1.25500. Good luck with your trades. {image}
Ignored
Yes, SNB wishes to see the franc @ 1.25, but can only at the moment :
1. Defend the peg/floor - utmost determination.
2. Introduce negative rates, which is highly unlikely.
3. Rumor about going to introduce negative rates to temporarily prop up this pair away from the floor.
4. Lift the peg to 1.25 or 1.3 (unlikely as they may lose credibility for tweaking the floor)
The bigger picture of the European's highly uncertain & unstable economy & SNB's limited weapons to weaken the franc will eventually draw down this pair again to the floor. I've mentioned in this forum several times when it is at 1.24, 1.23, that EURCHF will eventually drop as EZ members will definitely encounter some hiccups along the way. We got Italy & Cyprus to push this pair so much down from 1.24.
I forsee that this pair will not go up above 1.23 until it dips below 1.2050 or close to the floor again. Which is why I'm holding back my big bets, while only longing minilots for fun now... My big reload target is 1.2050.
Anyone has any opinion on the near future trend? Thanks.
Im planning on buying EUR/CHF at 1.2086/68 @ £48 per pip, target gna be set at 1.2326 with stoploss at 1.97 or below.
(£25,632 profit once target is hit)
Hoping Draghi's speech tomorrow weakens euro to my entry target.
