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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #337,981
  • Mar 31, 2013 6:30pm Mar 31, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting akramo
Near term, the GBPUSD hold at 1.5100 is a positive development so there is clearly no reason to alter the bullish outlook. Resumption towards the congestion area that preceded the sharp 2/20 drop is favored. The lower part of that zone (1.5415) is also the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January high (1.5423). IF the rally continues from above 1.5092, then the advance would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.5521, or near the top of the zone (1.5549)
How about the bearish outlook then with the longer down leg? Doesn't that has any weight in your analysis?
  • #337,982
  • Edited 7:33pm Mar 31, 2013 7:02pm | Edited 7:33pm
Large divergence between operators / commercial hedgers and large traders, could signify an inflection price point...

GBP Weekly

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USD Weekly

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Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #337,983
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:06pm Mar 31, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting FiatFap
Large divergence between operators / commercial hedgers and large traders, could signify an inflection price point... {image}
I'm still new to those type of charts. I noticed the first two divergences included an uptrend in price, so by the direction flipping, would that indicate potential downturn?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #337,984
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:21pm Mar 31, 2013 7:21pm
3 bottom shadow weekly candles
Attached Image
  • #337,985
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:23pm Mar 31, 2013 7:23pm
Let's look at gold to understand what 'they' get up to...

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Commercial hedgers are the manufacturers of goods for that market (they know their market better than anyone), so gold producers were consistently net short whilst gold was bidding up, so they 'hedge' against their exports.

Notice there was almost a panic sell in late 2008 and the comm hedgers were close to flipping their intent, ie their disclosed positions would have put the green line above zero on the furthest vertical line to the left...it turned into a fakey and they resumed their sell positioning and then 2009 happened!

But look at the recent bidding up of the green line, it's coming back to historical highs, so you need to ask yourself this...what do the market producers know about their own product to make them hedge and start buying?

In hindsight, i might swing trade a GBPAUD long i have because AUD may tank as gold reverts to lower prices to punish all the gold bugs.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #337,986
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:47pm Mar 31, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting A-speculator
How about the bearish outlook then with the longer down leg? Doesn't that has any weight in your analysis?
A-spec,

That's actually a dated quote from Daily FX,

It seems that 'current' comments show a change in sentiment over the weekend to a resumption in selling pressure. This too is even apparent from most analysts on Daily FX that seem to have changed their opinion (likely on the lack of energy to push above 1.52)

Im staying out right now as I seem to have lost my way last week (after being a bear for months). For me I think its best to wait for some conformation at either north of 1.526 or south of 1.509.
Money never sleeps...
  • #337,987
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:53pm Mar 31, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I'm still new to those type of charts. I noticed the first two divergences included an uptrend in price, so by the direction flipping, would that indicate potential downturn?
The divergence being at relative extreme levels gives the indication that something will change. It actually already did over the last few weeks and by the time the next COT report is issued that chart will look slightly different as the lines turn back toward each other.

The question is however, will this just break some pressure and allow more downtrend to resume (as it did in 2010) or will this actually be the change in direction and the lines will come together more.

Similar to the RSI being overbought.

The only real factual thing I can garner from this is that the reduction in volume last week (after the correction had moved us a couple hundred pips north) seems to suggest the 2010 path is likely and we will see a resumption in the downtrend soon. This is taken from the fact that net long positions fell last week (as did net short). The 'closing' of long positions from the week previous gives us an indication that the 'large traders' don't see the uptrend being anything more than a short term correction.
Money never sleeps...
  • #337,988
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:57pm Mar 31, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting inpatient
The divergence being at relative extreme levels gives the indication that something will change. It actually already did over the last few weeks and by the time the next COT report is issued that chart will look slightly different as the lines turn back toward each other. The question is however, will this just break some pressure and allow more downtrend to resume (as it did in 2010) or will this actually be the change in direction and the lines will come together more. Similar to the RSI being overbought. The only real factual thing I can garner...
OK. I heard the COT was very useful. The subscription is not much, but I am debating if it is valuable enough to subscribe. Anyone have any thoughts?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #337,989
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:58pm Mar 31, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting inpatient
A-spec, That's actually a dated quote from Daily FX, It seems that 'current' comments show a change in sentiment over the weekend to a resumption in selling pressure. This too is even apparent from most analysts on Daily FX that seem to have changed their opinion (likely on the lack of energy to push above 1.52) Im staying out right now as I seem to have lost my way last week (after being a bear for months). For me I think its best to wait for some conformation at either north of 1.526 or south of 1.509.
I think we might get below 1.51 today.. hopefully we get to see 4925 or below by this week. If its ok with u, i would like to suggest to not to rely on other people analysis mate.

"The biggest risk in trading is not losing your margin, but when u dont know what u're doing.. "
  • #337,990
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:59pm Mar 31, 2013 7:59pm
Lest we forget, 1 pence was taken off beer in the UK budget, that's enough to shoot the pound to the moon.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #337,991
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:00pm Mar 31, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting Pip Anon
OK. I heard the COT was very useful. The subscription is not much, but I am debating if it is valuable enough to subscribe. Anyone have any thoughts?
What subscription? it's all free!
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #337,992
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:03pm Mar 31, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting FiatFap
What subscription? it's all free ("http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6557187#post6557187")!
I can't recall the website at the movement. I think it was more detailed than the CFTC, ill have to look.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #337,993
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:03pm Mar 31, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting Pip Anon
OK. I heard the COT was very useful. The subscription is not much, but I am debating if it is valuable enough to subscribe. Anyone have any thoughts?
The tools in not important, but how u use the tools can give u the edge in trading..

What i mean is educate yourself first, make sure u're fully understand how to utilize the tools..
  • #337,994
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:09pm Mar 31, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I can't recall the website at the movement. I think it was more detailed than the CFTC, ill have to look.
They may disseminate the info differently, but the data is the data with no fluff attached.

Data for the report is required by the CFTC from traders in markets that have 20 or more traders holding positions large enough to meet the reporting level established by the CFTC for each of those markets
Wiki
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #337,995
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:25pm Mar 31, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting A-speculator
I think we might get below 1.51 today.. hopefully we get to see 4925 or below by this week. If its ok with u, i would like to suggest to not to rely on other people analysis mate. "The biggest risk in trading is not losing your margin, but when u dont know what u're doing.. "
Rely on others analysis?

I was just pointing out that since the quote you mentioned which was on Daily FX that they seem to have since changed their opinions.

Money never sleeps...
  • #337,996
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:31pm Mar 31, 2013 8:31pm
Quoting inpatient
Rely on others analysis? I was just pointing out that since the quote you mentioned which was on Daily FX that they seem to have since changed their opinions.
My bad then.. i thought u heavily rely your analysis based on dailyfx..

Sorry mate..
  • #337,997
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:33pm Mar 31, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting A-speculator
My bad then.. i thought u heavily rely your analysis based on dailyfx.. Sorry mate..

No it was actually a post from someone else, I was just pointing out that it was a quote after you had asked a question to the original post, sorry I don't remember the name of the original posting member.

No worries bro.
Money never sleeps...
  • #337,998
  • Edited 11:44pm Mar 31, 2013 10:29pm | Edited 11:44pm
watch list for bounces at 5176 , breaks then at 5134 ,5100 , good level 5092 . again breaks at 5068 & 26 target levels again .but after if it done , a good & strong bounce likely next breaking 5026 & may be narrow space at down , probable levels again 4980 & 4920 before the previous bottom. lets see with all those bounce levels for the more correction UP & at least there must be good try from any level mentioned .
take care .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #337,999
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:17pm Mar 31, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting fontu
watch list for bonces at 5176 , breaks then at 5134 ,5100 , good level 5092 . again breaks at 5068 & 26 target levels again .but after if it done , a good & strong bounce likely next breaking 5026 , probable bounce levels again 4980 & 4920 before the previous bottom. lets see with all thouse bounce levels for the more correction UP & at least there must be good try from any level mentioned . take care . fontu
Would be nice but 1.5181 pivot S1 holding well. With a thin market due to holiday, I don't know if traders want to take it down.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #338,000
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:45pm Mar 31, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Would be nice but 1.5181 pivot S1 holding well. With a thin market due to holiday, I don't know if traders want to take it down.
imho, price will go down slowly towards US session where we might get some volatility.. since holidays in the europe today..
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