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JPY Cross Pairs

  • #501
  • Mar 20, 2013 2:44pm Mar 20, 2013 2:44pm
Stocks Rally...But It May be Due to the Bank of Japan, Not the Fed
Wednesday, 20 Mar 2013 | 2:56 PM ET
By: Bob Pisani


Stocks rally...but it may have been due to the Bank of Japan, not the Federal Reserve.

Stocks did nothing for the first 10 minutes or so after the Fed announcement, but after that the Dow Industrial Average suddenly shot up almost 40 points, while bonds remained unchanged.

The new head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, is scheduled to hold his first press conference as BOJ chief tomorrow.

Shortly after 2:00 p.m. ET, the Japanese press leaked that Kuroda would pledge "bold monetary easing both in terms of quantity and quality."

While it has been anticipated that Kuroda would call for quickly trying to achieve a two percent inflation target, Kuroda will likely call for an early start to an aggressive program of asset purchases with no set end date, according to The Nikkei newspaper.

The yen weakened against the dollar.
  • #502
  • Mar 20, 2013 3:29pm Mar 20, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Stocks Rally...But It May be Due to the Bank of Japan, Not the Fed
Wednesday, 20 Mar 2013 | 2:56 PM ET
By: Bob Pisani


Stocks rally...but it may have been due to the Bank of Japan, not the Federal Reserve.

Stocks did nothing for the first 10 minutes or so after the Fed announcement, but after that the Dow Industrial Average suddenly shot up almost 40 points, while bonds remained unchanged.

The new head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, is scheduled to hold his first...

I had this come across my live audio feed as soon as it happened, guess paying for it is worth it

Hope you killed it today, bro!
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #503
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:27am Mar 21, 2013 1:27am
Gidday Traders

Had longs in over a week now

The new Yen master might move the market

see what happens tonight
  • #504
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:50pm Mar 21, 2013 12:50pm
I see 94.70 not hold today, be fast and without pain
  • #505
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:37pm Mar 21, 2013 1:37pm
Gidday

US/JPY Yen looks strong

Still holding longs

Playing the EUR/YEN with shorts an longs

Thinking retraces are quiet big moves on there own

I need to sit down after work an get into Ninja mode

an take revenge on this EUR/YEN
  • #506
  • Mar 21, 2013 11:34pm Mar 21, 2013 11:34pm
Hello

Anybody know whats happening

Yen still strong

creeping under 95
  • #507
  • Mar 22, 2013 2:46am Mar 22, 2013 2:46am
short CAD/JPY look nice for 91
  • #508
  • Mar 22, 2013 2:47am Mar 22, 2013 2:47am
Quoting seaman2
i am looking to short but not there yet. Looking for evidence.

There are number of pairs/markets that flipped over the weekend thru large round number. It is more about EUR but still

EURAUD flipped below 1.25
SP500 flipped below 1550
EURUSD flipped below 1.3
USJY below 95
EURJPY kind of below 125. It closed just below 125 on friday
AUDJPY nocked on 100 and got rejection
DAX below 8000
gold above 1600

no market make it back thru rouind number at this moment. i d say this is large resistance for continuation of jpy down markets up etc.

this...

market still has not reversed these round numbers. All turned out to be failed attempts. Gold flipped above 1600 and continuing suggests high chance of market to continue where gap sent it last weekend.

however, I am still not in position. I just do 10-15 real trades a year and hoping to keep my high % win ratio.
  • #509
  • Mar 22, 2013 3:19am Mar 22, 2013 3:19am
you are ready short for 100-200-300 or more pips on JPY pairs?
  • #510
  • Mar 22, 2013 4:38am Mar 22, 2013 4:38am
Quoting Foxikus
you are ready short for 100-200-300 or more pips on JPY pairs?

swing trade. Looking for 5 to 10 daily ATR's objective. Last 40 trades happens 1 in 5. No signal yet.
  • #511
  • Edited Mar 27, 2013 5:17am Mar 26, 2013 10:58pm | Edited Mar 27, 2013 5:17am
E/J isn't showing much conviction on this grind higher. I'm waiting for shorts.
Edit: Shorted at 121.52
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #512
  • Mar 29, 2013 9:58pm Mar 29, 2013 9:58pm
this is my view on usd jpy with a new system i am developing now it was confirmed by other trading system also .
i used Fibonacci numbers and equation under development just watch it out it is until 27 of coming month when usdjpy should do its lower low for coming months .save it in your desktop and watch it
all have a nice day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 281 KB
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #513
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:46am Mar 30, 2013 10:46am
I see a strong point of Value @ 118.00 for Euro Yen on the Weekly price chart. Confluence of a Quarterly Vidya average and a VWAP from the July 2008 High leads me to believe this will be touched soon enough, days or the coming week or two. This will be the Value price to seek before resuming a overly Long Trend Bullish flow. The weekly price bar of 2/23/2013 bearish price testing support will be tested again and further proves direction.

This chart has various peaks and valleys used as starting points for a Midas indicator (VWAP) (pink lines). The Vidya is plotted on a Quarterly and Bi-Annual basis (sky blue). A price follower indicator is utilized twice (yellow) and (red). The yellow line allows for a 5% lag on 95% of the price direction, while the red line lags 2% of the 98%. This allows me to see price when it trends and consolidates within these barriers. Weekly price flow is now "trapped" in a consolidation phase. Look at a large scale daily price chart and you see the same pattern before the strong bullish uptrend. This is what is now taking place on the large time frame price charts (weekly, monthly).

Seems illogical for the Euro to actually progress in a bullish fashion, but we don't know what will happen in the future which can trigger such movements...perhaps consolidation of the Euro group countries paired with continued Yen QE?!?!

I will be waiting for price to hit this value area before entering a Long Position trade, in the mean time I will be seeking divergences on a 8 hour time frame.

sjc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurJpy Week ending March 29 2013.png Size: 100 KB
  • #514
  • Mar 30, 2013 4:13pm Mar 30, 2013 4:13pm
BOJ: Expect only a small change in the first meeting under Kuroda

For traders of the Japanese yen, the first BOJ meeting under the new leadership is a huge event, as expectations are very high. However, the BOJ may announce only a limited policy change at first, before making a bigger move., as Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX explains in detail.

In the interview below, Vecchio also addresses the impact of the FOMC meeting on markets. This is the first part of the interview. A second part, focusing on Cyprus, will be published after the Easter holiday.

Christopher Vecchio is a currency analyst for DailyFX. With a background in political science and law, he focuses on the interrelationships between geopolitical events, macroeconomic trends, and market reactions. Also an active trader, Christopher monitors the markets around the clock. Expertise: News events, market reactions, and macro trends.

The BOJ convenes next week for the first time under governor Kuroda. Could he bring forward open-ended QE? If so, what other measures could the new leadership take?

When considering Kuroda’s likelihood path of easing, he’s going to implement policies that aren’t too controversial, as he does need to be reelected after April 8, due to the technicality of Masaaki Shirakawa resigning early on March 19 (Kuroda needs to finish Shirakawa’s term).

If he sets forth policies that are too dovish, he and his deputy governors could lose favor quickly among the main opposition DPJ, especially Kikuo Iwata. Earlier this week, Governor Kuroda made clear that two things will happen in his tenure: the BoJ will hit its inflation target of +2.0% y/y within two years; and resulting from the increased inflation target, increased asset purchases, likely including Japanse Government Bonds (JGBs).

In this interim period before April 8, we should expect Kuroda’s BoJ to first increase its monetary easing program. If increased asset purchases don’t stoke medium-term inflation (they won’t), Kuroda’s BoJ will wait until after the next round of confirmations before accelerating the Shirakawa-mandated open easing timeline from January 2014 to midyear 2013.

The market responded to the past two FOMC meeting minutes releases with a stronger US dollar, as the minutes showed that there are also hawks in the Federal Reserve, even though Bernanke and other doves are in control. Can we expect a similar market reaction for the third time?

I suspect so. It’s clear that Fed policymakers are taking a more optimistic outlook on the economy. Even though the recent meeting produced economic forecasts that I would described as “uninspiring,” I believe that despite the ceiling for growth has been lowered, the floor has been at least firmed slightly, given the strength of the US consumer in the beginning of 2013.

Considering the pace of quick government austerity – defense spending declined by -22.1% y/y annualized in the 4Q’12, while the payroll tax resulting from the fiscal cliff deal stuck workers with an extra -2% per paycheck – a resilient US consumer is key to the recovery going forward.
  • #515
  • Mar 31, 2013 2:39am Mar 31, 2013 2:39am
Quoting orabi
this is my view on usd jpy with a new system i am developing now it was confirmed by other trading system also . i used Fibonacci numbers and equation under development just watch it out it is until 27 of coming month when usdjpy should do its lower low for coming months .save it in your desktop and watch it all have a nice day
this view is cancelled
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #516
  • Mar 31, 2013 3:47am Mar 31, 2013 3:47am
Quoting orabi
this view is cancelled all have a nice day
hope u didnt close ur short
  • #517
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:30pm Mar 31, 2013 10:30pm
Look at what happened to EUR/JPY the last time the 20 EMA cross over the 50 EMA to the downside.

Price was roughly at 107 late April 2012 and we hit lows at about 94 late July. However the 20 EMA crossed back over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart to the upside late August / early September at about 98 or so.

Summary: Last time 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA to the downside we saw a 1,000+ pip move to the downside in the coming months.

Is this something that we should be expecting this time around? Keep an eye on weekly areas of support...

I've got 117.60, 115.20, and then 110.90 as key areas of support from a weekly perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Daily_20_and_50_EMA_(4-1).png Size: 129 KB
  • #518
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:20pm Mar 31, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Look at what happened to EUR/JPY the last time the 20 EMA cross over the 50 EMA to the downside. Price was roughly at 107 late April 2012 and we hit lows at about 94 late July. However the 20 EMA crossed back over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart to the upside late August / early September at about 98 or so. Summary: Last time 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA to the downside we saw a 1,000+ pip move to the downside in the coming months. Is this something that we should be expecting this time around? Keep an eye on weekly areas of support... I've got...
Hey 100P, Happy Easter! I agree, I don't let them run over the weekend but got in short at 120.62. I've found these supposedly "Quiet" days when everyone is on holiday give some good moves. She's sitting on a precipice. Time will tell.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #519
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:30pm Mar 31, 2013 11:30pm
Quoting bogus
Hey 100P, Happy Easter! I agree, I don't let them run over the weekend but got in short at 120.62. I've found these supposedly "Quiet" days when everyone is on holiday give some good moves. She's sitting on a precipice. Time will tell.
Hey Bogus! Thanks buddy. Congrats on your shorts, I'm still holding some EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY short positions from last week.

Looks like this week should give us some volatility as we have some important BOJ events as well as NFP.

Hope you enjoyed your weekend Bogus!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-31_1828.png Size: 10 KB
  • #520
  • Apr 1, 2013 2:49am Apr 1, 2013 2:49am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Look at what happened to EUR/JPY the last time the 20 EMA cross over the 50 EMA to the downside. Price was roughly at 107 late April 2012 and we hit lows at about 94 late July. However the 20 EMA crossed back over the 50 EMA on the Daily chart to the upside late August / early September at about 98 or so. Summary: Last time 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA to the downside we saw a 1,000+ pip move to the downside in the coming months. Is this something that we should be expecting this time around? Keep an eye on weekly areas of support... I've got...
werent u the one calling me out on my short bias?
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