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  • #5,781
  • Quote
  • Mar 21, 2013 11:40am Mar 21, 2013 11:40am
time frame and your overall entry plan? You are doing well!
- Play Smart!
  • #5,782
  • Quote
  • Mar 21, 2013 11:54am Mar 21, 2013 11:54am
Quoting profpip
time frame and your overall entry plan? You are doing well!
Mainly 4h and some times 5 min. 5min will you give you the best rewar when you're right. Entry plan vary from time to time,simple PA,but they are all from this thread and Graeme has explain them all.

Best regards,
Tim
My attempt at PA-based stacking. So far so good.
I have to admit that the pair have been very friendly to me though. It only took out one position for ~15p or so despite the very aggressive entries.
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  • #5,784
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  • Mar 27, 2013 10:39pm Mar 27, 2013 10:39pm
guys, just a quick question, what MAs you use?
Quoting Barbossa
My attempt at PA-based stacking. So far so good.
I have to admit that the pair have been very friendly to me though. It only took out one position for ~15p or so despite the very aggressive entries.
Nicely done!
  • #5,786
  • Quote
  • Edited Apr 2, 2013 4:24pm Apr 1, 2013 10:25pm | Edited Apr 2, 2013 4:24pm
To all the long time followers/practitioners of this thread,

Wondering if anyone has been successful is creating your own theorems mentioned in this post here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post4031871 . Obviously I don't expect anyone to share their theorems here as it takes a lot of hard work to convert a price irregularity into a tradable edge.

I guess what i am really asking is this "How do I prove the worthiness of my theorem? Is backtesting a theorem with 10+yrs of historical data possibly similar to backtesting any other strategy or setup using an EA" ?

Thoughts?
Staying in my lane...
Give it some time in real or demo environment and keep fine-tuning it. I found back-testing practically useless because there's no way to predict the way market will be in next minute. At the end of the day it's your active participation that will be most relevant because you've entered at certain time and stayed there and that is your concrete point of reference to judge against. Getting a feeling for how price behaves around major numbers and S/R is quite valuable as well.
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 18.7%
[quote=VEEFX;6564043]To all the long time followers/practitioners of this thread, Wondering if anyone has been successful is creating your own theorems mentioned in this post here... [url]www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?

Hi, Vee.

I don't like to use word "theorems", which is too math. There is no theorem in fx trading, trading is not science.

A trader's trading method or system or scheme or just a way or tricks or algo, can be test in living trading. If he/she got good profit in 3 years (3 or 5 cycles running), then, he/she can use it forever.

When testing a trading system, you can select different periods of chart dataset as test data. eg. good trend period, no trend, Sharp V, etc. characteristic price periods, no need of 10 years data. Then, EA can be run on these selected price dataset in order to see if your EA or your trading system to make profit.

A trading system never be designed to cover all scenarios of price behaviours, action, etc. Discount or balance has be done for a trading system design, eg. I like a system to make money in a pre-defined price swing pattern, and like it to stop trading if price go off designed price pattern.

Inside trading is the best trading system in any market, include fx. If word "theorem" is used, how to prove, test this theorem. Funning thing.
Quoting VEEFX
I guess what i am really asking is this "How do I prove the worthiness of my theorem? Is backtesting a theorem with 10+yrs of historical data possibly similar to backtesting any other strategy or setup using an EA" ?
Hello, Vee.
Yes, backtesting is just the same process, no matter if you test an actual EA or just a system/theorem/method or whatever you want to call your potential edge. Funny thing is, I believe backtesting is not even required. Consider this... When you open the daily or weekly chart, you can see immediately the magnitude of the price movements during the selected period of time. For example, GBP/USD was in a range of approximately 1000 pips for the last year. Suppose you are looking for 500-pip targets. You now know for sure that any buy entries taken in the lower half of the range and not stopped out would have hit your profit target and comply with your theorem. And please give another thought of that: any. Meaning each and every one of them. But you only need one out of 50 in order to be profitable (assuming your risk is 10 pips, as in the original post). That gives you an immense room for failed entries. You can now zoom in that same selected period on a lower timeframe and start looking for your entries. You can afford to be selective, since you know you don't need many opportunities. But you also don't need to pursue perfection. As long as the number of failed entries is not 50 times greater than the number of the surviving ones, you know it will be a profitable strategy. No more backtesting is needed, you just used the historical data to devise the plan. The test is not going to show anything different, as long as you didn't overlook something in the process.

One more thing about perfecting the entries... Obviously, it is better to have fewer losses and more surviving positions. However, there's a dangerous pitfall somewhere along the road to perfection. It's called "overfitting". In order to be sure about your theorem's validity and future performance, it has to be as robust and simple as possible. Don't get too picky, don't include too many conditions and clauses. That way you're getting a more representative results from a statistical perspective. And that's just what you're aiming for.

Best regards,
Barbossa
  • #5,790
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:04pm Apr 3, 2013 1:52pm | Edited 2:04pm
Thanks for all your responses. I believe there is a deeper meaning / correlation between "Opportunity Cycle", timeframes, scale and the number of 'calculated' probes you send to gain an edge into a more plausible risk/reward structure. Just participation and sending low risk probes across 20+ pairs with the hope that it will survive for the next 1000 pips is just a recipe for frustration imo.


"Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 10 pip risk, one per day, that will run for 1000 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 100 cycle."


"Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 10 pip risk, one per session, that will run for 100 pips take profit but the occurrences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 10 cycle."

"Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 100 pip risk, one per week, that will run for 10000 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 52 cycle."

etc

One has to know when the opportunity exists and when it no longer exists to save trading capital. If you have a 1000 pip drawdown in hopes of targeting a 1000 pip worth of opportunity cycle, you will never be able to breakeven on that specific opportunity. Looking at the historical 'behavior' of the pair, we can statistically reverse-engineer and encode the potential risk/reward in our favor (is what Graeme is advocating imo). This post is pivotal to all the Holy Grail posts form Graeme in this thread!

I still beg to ask the question.... "Has any one of you created your own Theorem as part of your trading plan?"

EDIT: This approach can be applied to any of your chosen setup (FB, pinbar, IB, OB, rsi, etc). The key is to allow history to let you choose your opportunity scale instead of randomly setting a risk:reward.

EDIT1: Here's one technique I have used to come up with my own theorem that has helped me. For one full month, open any pair and stare at all the available timeframes from MN, WK, D1, H8, H4, H3, H2, H1, M30, M15, M5, M1 and tick all windows open at once for any trading session of your choice. This will tune my mind into looking at MTF behavior which is neutral and universal to any pair or instrument! I guarantee you, next month, it will take you less than 20 seconds to decide whether to make a low risk entry or not
Staying in my lane...
Graeme posted :
Quote
......
Time to stack. Many traders ask when is the best time to stack. The most
simple answer is:
1. When the whole market is buzzing with movement. Tick data flying in furiously and all pairs are moving.
2. Your probe is alive and you continue to stack effortlessly until the first close of a position at a loss.
Point 1 is most important. The default view of my metatrader has eurusd 4hr, gbpusd 4hr, usdjpy 4hr, gbpjpy 4hr
and in that order with the usual emas and indicators as shown in my charts. I know by quick glances at each pair
that I know...

Hi to every Graeme's follower.
Although Graeme mentioned many times about "compelling momentum", but it is hard for me to determine the momentum in a H1 or H4 chart. Could that be a short wick long body bar, or any long range bar (even short body with long wick) ?
Any comments are welcome. Thanks.

Regards,
Kayn
yes, i can understand now strong momentum from chart on EJ Daily now. Started from Tuesday I got a feel that EJ will go up, but i keep experienced loses in up direction. May be these continuous loss in the up direction and the slow motion this week make me lost my confidence. For today, i purposely left out EJ and concentrate sell on USD pair. Unfortunely, I miss the JPY rocket
Quoting kit_0807
Graeme posted : Hi to every Graeme's follower. Although Graeme mentioned many times about "compelling momentum", but it is hard for me to determine the momentum in a H1 or H4 chart. Could that be a short wick long body bar, or any long range bar (even short body with long wick) ? Any comments are welcome. Thanks. Regards, Kayn
Hi Kayn,

Things are really simple: try to trade when there is activity in the market, not when the price is not moving much. Also, when you see those long candles, you sort of have to be positioned in the market with your probes before that price explosion. Like, if there is a clear downtrend, and price is stalling slightly, that is the moment to add some probes anticipating that the movement will continue in the same direction. If you lose, you lose 1 ... or 5 ...if you win, you win 100 (R:R).

Cam
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Kayn, Things are really simple: try to trade when there is activity in the market, not when the price is not moving much. Also, when you see those long candles, you sort of have to be positioned in the market with your probes before that price explosion. Like, if there is a clear downtrend, and price is stalling slightly, that is the moment to add some probes anticipating that the movement will continue in the same direction. If you lose, you lose 1 ... or 5 ...if you win, you win 100 (R:R). Cam


I can do this all day every day ! Currently stacked heavily anticipating another upward breakout. Big money is possible only during such compelling momentum environment so let's make sure we squeeze every God damn pip the Japanese are blessing us with !!!
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Staying in my lane...
Quoting VEEFX
I can do this all day every day ! Currently stacked heavily anticipating another upward breakout. Big money is possible only during such compelling momentum environment so let's make sure we squeeze every God damn pip the Japanese are blessing us with !!! {image}
and here's my favorite spaghetti chart... using open positions as my 'indicator' instead of throwing a bunch of indicators

Read and Practice my friends....This thread has EVERYTHING you will ever need to become successful.
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Staying in my lane...
Quoting VEEFX
I can do this all day every day ! Currently stacked heavily anticipating another upward breakout. Big money is possible only during such compelling momentum environment so let's make sure we squeeze every God damn pip the Japanese are blessing us with !!!
Vee is laughing all the way to the bank ;-)

Well done,

Cam
Quoting VEEFX
and here's my favorite spaghetti chart... using open positions as my 'indicator' instead of throwing a bunch of indicators Read and Practice my friends....This thread has EVERYTHING you will ever need to become successful. {image}
Quoting cameron1st
Vee is laughing all the way to the bank ;-) Well done, Cam
I rang the register big time with 241 trades on JPY pairs yielding over 10,500 pips. 'Fear' of weekend gap got the best of me and closed them all for a sweet profit. Just few hours before market close, I was running at 108% for the week taking my account to 3x for YTD.

Mission Accomplished for April

The reason for this post.... as I mentioned several times I was struggling big time with my focal interpretation in stacking long positions. I have shed a lot of tears but never gave up and made it a endeavor to fix myself this year. I lost several thousand pips just practicing in Feb/March. Mission Accomplished

Final Destination in my journey - ACHIEVE CONSISTENCY!

(posting this just to inspire and motivate readers... will delete by tomorrow)
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Staying in my lane...
Oh my beautiful Guppy

Proof of what Graeme taught us... You are always too early but never too late in FX !
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Staying in my lane...
VeeFx, was that a live account or demo account? And did you use stoplosses?
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