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Hyperion's Notebook

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 18, 2013 10:39pm Mar 18, 2013 10:39pm
Week starting 18th March

Bias/Capflow: EUR/USD down, USD/JPY up, AUD/USD up.

Projected weekly ranges for this week.

USD/JPY 94.96 to 97.31
EUR/USD 1.2863 to 1.3083
AUD/USD 1.0227 to 1.0425

Notes: AUD short position still looks like an accident waiting to happen (AUD up), more so with Sterling. Maybe Buy stop entry at 1.5200
  • #2
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:41pm Mar 20, 2013 10:41pm
USD/JPY actual low 94.00 so add on projected range (235 pts) makes new projected high 96.45. Happy to bank at 96.00 though.
Other entry targets look unattainable atm. Let's see. If get close to AUD projected low or EUR projected high and see a trigger entry will take it.
  • #3
  • Mar 21, 2013 2:32pm Mar 21, 2013 2:32pm
Buy USD/JPY again at original projected weekly low (94.96) for perhaps a second bite at the cherry this week.
Line in the sand just below 93.80 means break even worse result now for this week.
  • #4
  • Mar 24, 2013 4:34pm Mar 24, 2013 4:34pm
Projected ranges for the week beginning 25th March

USD/JPY 94.20 to 96.48

EUR/USD 1.2806 to 1.2979

AUD/USD 1.0352 to 1.0502

Capflow is suggesting Long AUD/USD and Short EUR/USD (same as last week) However it has changed to SHORT USD/JPY.
I hate that as I have bought into the fundemental view of the weakening Yen, however if I see a good PA set up to sell Ill take it.
I would hope that this would only be a correcion in the uptrend and once Capflow turned around I will gobble up the buy signal then.

Elsewhere I'm happy to look for buy triggers in the Aussie around 1.0350 and sell triggers in the EUR around 1.2980.

Buy stop was filled in Sterling. Hopeing for more short covering there.

Given the above EUR and Yen calls, I'll be looking at the EUR/JPY or CHF/JPY for potential sell triggers as well....
  • #5
  • Mar 24, 2013 6:53pm Mar 24, 2013 6:53pm
Selling EUR/USD at market 1.3040. Stop 1.3075
(Sometimes you need some luck, was eyeing projected weekly high number when the Cyprus news came out.
  • #6
  • Mar 24, 2013 7:01pm Mar 24, 2013 7:01pm
Adjusted projected low for EUR now 1.2872. (Last at 1.3020)
  • #7
  • Mar 25, 2013 2:18pm Mar 25, 2013 2:18pm
Closing short EUR 1.2880. Didn't expect the weekly range in one night but I'll take it....
Should have trusted the change in the USD/JPY capflow system to short.
  • #8
  • Mar 27, 2013 5:16pm Mar 27, 2013 5:16pm
Weird week, lucky on the EUR, into the long side of the USD/JPY in low 94's because of weekly projected range and fundemental view but it's opposing capflow view (rules are sometimes to be broken!). If we've seen the high of the week for the AUD then hat tip to the projected high of 1.0502. Looking for the projected low however because capflow is a buy still. Longer term chart of USD/JPy attached. Planets are lined up for a multi week buy because of projected weekly low and upchannel, good r/r.

Separate from all of the above I have bought a one month EUR/JPY 120 Put with Double Knock-Outs 122 and 115 for 9 Yen pips (Y90,000 per EUR 1 mill face). Bit of a lotto ticket but great R/R maybe up to 50+ times my initial risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yen28th.png Size: 64 KB
  • #9
  • Mar 27, 2013 8:58pm Mar 27, 2013 8:58pm
But this chart is probably more likely... So USD/JPY down in line with Capflow after all... EUR/JPY could break towards 115 but hopefully no further than my knock out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY28th.png Size: 61 KB
  • #10
  • Mar 31, 2013 3:17pm Mar 31, 2013 3:17pm
Capflow unchanged USD/JPY down, EUR/USD down, AUD/USD up. (longer term USD/JPY still up so given my fundemental bias I'll allow myself to look at longs)

Projected ranges for the week beginning 1st Apr

USD/JPY 93.38 to 94.96
EUR/USD 1.2729 to 1.2988
AUD/USD 1.0416 to 1.0542

Okay so I wait for sub Yen 93.50, Euro above 1.2960 and Aussie below 1.0420 and then look for buy entry triggers. Back to Easter chocolate.
  • #11
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:14pm Mar 31, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting Hyperion
Capflow unchanged USD/JPY down, EUR/USD down, AUD/USD up. (longer term USD/JPY still up so given my fundemental bias I'll allow myself to look at longs) Projected ranges for the week beginning 1st Apr USD/JPY 93.38 to 94.96 EUR/USD 1.2729 to 1.2988 AUD/USD 1.0416 to 1.0542 Okay so I wait for sub Yen 93.50, Euro above 1.2960 and Aussie below 1.0420 and then look for buy entry triggers. Back to Easter chocolate.
Are you looking buy or sell on Euro? The way i understand your use of the capflow I would have thought you were looking short above 2960. I am still working on reverse engineering to try and figure out the capflow equations you use. If I could use a quantifyable and objective thing like this to develop a directional bias on an intraday timeframe I would think I might be able to get my hit rate up another few percent.
  • #12
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:24pm Mar 31, 2013 7:24pm
Yup, my CP system says be on the short side of the EUR. It went RED (short) 7th Feb then annoyingly went black (long) for one day on the 19th then RED again from 20th onwards. More reliable but slower to turn version has been on the short side since 25th Feb.
So I'm waiting for the projected range high to give me my trade location, the CP system gives me my bias, then I just need a common trigger to get in around that level. Hope that helps.
  • #13
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:33pm Mar 31, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting Hyperion
Yup, my CP system says be on the short side of the EUR. It went RED (short) 7th Feb then annoyingly went black (long) for one day on the 19th then RED again from 20th onwards. More reliable but slower to turn version has been on the short side since 25th Feb. So I'm waiting for the projected range high to give me my trade location, the CP system gives me my bias, then I just need a common trigger to get in around that level. Hope that helps.
Got it. I thought it might just have been an oversight/typo on your part.
  • #14
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:57pm Mar 31, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting Hyperion
Okay so I wait for sub Yen 93.50, Euro above 1.2960 and Aussie below 1.0420 and then look for buy entry triggers. Back to Easter chocolate.
Apologies, should read "I wait for sub Y93.50 to look for buy triggers, Sub AUD 1.0420 for Buy triggers and Plus EUR 1.2960 for sell triggers"
Chocolate headache...
  • #15
  • Apr 3, 2013 6:25pm Apr 3, 2013 6:25pm
Capflow has changed to black (EUR higher bias). Yen bias remains USD/JPY lower and AUD/USD black however the later has become a low number and subject to change easily.

Upshot of it all is I am looking for long triggers in the EUR (gulp) and taking sell triggers in USD/JPY (sorry Kyle Bass I still love you). Leaving AUD alone but feel 1.0500 is strong cap so more downside than upside.
  • #16
  • Apr 4, 2013 2:27pm Apr 4, 2013 2:27pm
Hat tip to the Capflow EUR change yesterday morning. There was a sell trigger (ignored) followed by a Buy trigger (taken). Sadly I also took the sell trigger in USD/JPY but ignored the subsequent Buy trigger. Sometimes I question the value of having a Capflow bias however moves like yesterday are rare.

Flat now and will remain so because I'm away next week on an Island in the Pacific with my smokin hot wife.
  • #17
  • Apr 15, 2013 8:10pm Apr 15, 2013 8:10pm
Back but with a busted calf muscle - ouch. Lots happening with precious metal sell offs and the sad events in Boston.
Clearing thousands of emails. Basically not rushing into anything yet.

Capflow for the AUD/USD turned to red on the close of 12th Apr. EUR/USD still black but only just. Yen still Red but again only just.
  • #18
  • Apr 16, 2013 5:45pm Apr 16, 2013 5:45pm
This chart is the Aussie over the Permanent Portfolio (25% Cash/Bonds/Gold and Equities re-weighted every quarter)
No idea why there is such a strong co-relation but there is.... Makes me want to be short the AUD/USD....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AussiePermanent.png Size: 70 KB
  • #19
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:58pm Apr 17, 2013 8:58pm
This guy HAS to use so much discipline and thought about what he does... it's a lesson I want to emulate before I trade.
Inserted Video
  • #20
  • Apr 22, 2013 7:51pm Apr 22, 2013 7:51pm
Blew up my calf muscle, pai killers are so great they remind me of something else. Keeping trading to a min. Just happy to sit with Short Aussie from last week. I think we head much lower. EUR random to me, would like another big dip on USD/JPY to buy into.
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