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  • #777,001
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:38am Mar 24, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Ken A
Regardless Yen is weakening the safe haven status is still there. See what happened during global risk aversion money is going back to Yen.
No, it is not there. They have biggest debt/GDP ratio in the world AND are targetting 2% inflation. Which, as far as I know, will lead to incease of IR. Not talking about demographics here. How about the fact they shut down all their nuclear power plants? Kinda expensive. Dont take me wrong, I believe in strength of Japanese people, but I think they have very tough decade ahead of them. Their only luck is most of their debt is held by domestic private investors and they are nationalistic. But it just takes one look at Sony earnings, or whatever else company, to see growth is contracting. No growth, gigantic debt, and plans for inflation. Thats not exactly what I would look for when looking for safety.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #777,002
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:45am Mar 24, 2013 9:45am
Looking for safety in a currency is a dead game..

Except some Krüger Rands buried in the backyard..
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #777,003
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:46am Mar 24, 2013 9:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
No, it is not there. They have biggest debt/GDP ratio in the world AND are targetting 2% inflation. Which, as far as I know, will lead to incease of IR. Not talking about demographics here. How about the fact they shut down all their nuclear power plants? Kinda expensive. Dont take me wrong, I believe in strength of Japanese people, but I think they have very tough decade ahead of them. Their only luck is most of their debt is held by domestic private investors and they are nationalistic. But it just takes one look at Sony earnings, or whatever...
The reasons why AUD, NZD and CAD are safe haven . You have been in the snow for too long I am talking about money flow out and in to Yen.
  • #777,004
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:53am Mar 24, 2013 9:53am
Quoting orabi
regardless of news we have a megaphone bottom reversal pattern stop loss 1.2970
all have a nice day
doesnt it have to break the upper tl first? does it void the other pattern already pointing to 2775/81, since this pattern is still valid?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #777,005
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:55am Mar 24, 2013 9:55am
Quoting Ken A
Well some are happy with +40 pips and some are not enough with +1,000 pips
naah, last week was awesome. some 1200pips but, yeah, the previous weeks were like 140-170pips a week but made loads on gu nvm, I'll do eu mostly -_-
  • #777,006
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:01am Mar 24, 2013 10:01am
Quoting ec_creep
naah, last week was awesome. some 1200pips but, yeah, the previous weeks were like 140-170pips a week but made loads on gu nvm, I'll do eu mostly -_-
Friday from E/J alone +600 pips
  • #777,007
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:04am Mar 24, 2013 10:04am
Quoting Ken A
The reasons why AUD, NZD and CAD are safe haven . You have been in the snow for too long I am talking about money flow out and in to Yen.
Money flow, money flow. As you can see, money is flowing in PIIGS junk bonds. Would you buy them? Well, I wouldnt. I cant buy it just because it is going up and then cross my fingers and pray. I need to know why it is going there in the first place. Those are speculative money flowing because of desperate seek of yields in enviroment without IR. Btw, I kinda miss interest rates, dont you? Nono, not my cup of tea. Maybe I should go with the flow, but I´ve heard saying "Only dead fish go with the flow" and I like it.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #777,008
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:12am Mar 24, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Money flow, money flow. As you can see, money is flowing in PIIGS junk bonds. Would you buy them? Well, I wouldnt. I cant buy it just because it is going up and then cross my fingers and pray. I need to know why it is going there in the first place. Those are speculative money flowing because of desperate seek of yields in enviroment without IR. Btw, I kinda miss interest rates, dont you? Nono, not my cup of tea. Maybe I should go with the flow, but I´ve heard saying "Only dead fish go with the flow" and I like it.

I can not change the world and nothing I say will affect world currencies. But I try to make as many pips as possible from all the insanities. I'd rather be a dead fish full of pips than the other alternative
  • #777,009
  • Edited 10:36am Mar 24, 2013 10:18am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
No, it is not there. They have biggest debt/GDP ratio in the world AND are targetting 2% inflation. Which, as far as I know, will lead to incease of IR. Not talking about demographics here. How about the fact they shut down all their nuclear power plants? Kinda expensive. Dont take me wrong, I believe in strength of Japanese people, but I think they have very tough decade ahead of them. Their only luck is most of their debt is held by domestic private investors and they are nationalistic. But it just takes one look at Sony earnings, or whatever...
being a safe haven in the past.. dont make it so when your domestic manufacturing cost is rising, with the most expensive ingredient. when your cost is high, and your selling cheap. it may help some jobs in the short term. but not in the long term.. mc-d'ees cant stay in business selling a burger for a buck, if it cost 1.25 to produce. the subsidized government nukes are closing. free market ng cost 4$ in the u.s. atm... and 18$ in japan.. its just the reality.. energy is the most expensive cost in heavy manufacturing, such as autos. if there is a 60%+ cost in energy in a product. and u.s. labor cost is 10%... then buying the energy in north America at 450% less. makes it cheaper to make in north America. w/o added cost of shipping twice. This to a lesser degree applies to china energy wise. Since they still nuke and hydro. but the labor is cheaper then china in other parts of Asia.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #777,010
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:19am Mar 24, 2013 10:19am
Quoting Ken A
I can not change the world and nothing I say will affect world currencies. But I try to make as many pips as possible from all the insanities. I'd rather be a dead fish full of pips than the other alternative
AMEN
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #777,011
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:45am Mar 24, 2013 10:45am
Eurozone offers Cyprus the exit - our way or the highway



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...e-highway.html
  • #777,012
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:48am Mar 24, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Ken A
Friday from E/J alone +600 pips
as usual

I know zilch on the yen, maaan
  • #777,013
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:49am Mar 24, 2013 10:49am
Quoting gatorinla
free market ng cost 4$ in the u.s. atm... and 18$ in japan.
Very interesting numbers, thx, never saw them. And I was wondering what are implications of that shutdown. Poor Japanese guys. But I believe they are strong. We can ask Fudomyo what he thinks of it, I believe he will be very well informed.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #777,014
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:53am Mar 24, 2013 10:53am
Quoting Schickeria
Eurozone offers Cyprus the exit - our way or the highway
Its from Daily Telegraph. I prefere Maxim, when looking for fun .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #777,015
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:57am Mar 24, 2013 10:57am
Sometimes, I think these 'crisis' are nothing more than flim-flam for whatever reason. When has it not filled the gap? I can't recall. With such whim (of course only Central banks move the market--[ok, maybe a few Boeing deals or something]) keep the stop losses in place unless your strategy factors in these apoplectic moments. I'm not going to feel comfortable until the gap is filled.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #777,016
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:19am Mar 24, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Very interesting numbers, thx, never saw them. And I was wondering what are implications of that shutdown. Poor Japanese guys. But I believe they are strong. We can ask Fudomyo what he thinks of it, I believe he will be very well informed.
as for as manufacturing cost. as long as someone doesn't have specific company secret documents. what i gave you is very close. 10% labor cost based on Chrysler. A newer one like Hyundai/KIA may be less. But like Toyota, they are expanding in N America also. if it was cheaper to build elsewhere, why would you expand here. the same story with BMW, Mercedes, apple.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #777,017
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:39am Mar 24, 2013 11:39am
Here's another thought.. If I were a multi billionaire.. They only need 10B... I would lend Cyprus the money.. and then I would put a huge long position on e/u that would effectively make me my money back.. I know.. insider trading and stuff... but if we disregard that, it's a workable solution.. So now I own Cyprus for nothing..

Oh, and I would also become the Russians oligarchs new best friend..
  • #777,018
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:45am Mar 24, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Very interesting numbers, thx, never saw them. And I was wondering what are implications of that shutdown. Poor Japanese guys. But I believe they are strong. We can ask Fudomyo what he thinks of it, I believe he will be very well informed.
in the process of making any finished petrol product. it takes energy.. even if 2 countries have an = oil cost. the converting energy cost, will decide real cost. so building a refinery in china, is not cost effective (comparable to u.s.). not that they will not do it. its just the government will subsides it.. and each product sold weakens the government monetary resource. it works till it dont.. a fast shitting mule, dont shit long. . the same with steel, they have a energy conversion cost. the formula changes as efficiency improves.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #777,019
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:53am Mar 24, 2013 11:53am
Quoting attila
So now I own Cyprus for nothing.
Hahaha, I was thinking simmilar thing, without that Euro hedge, as I think there wont be any hard implications. If I were russian oligarch billionaire, I would have already bought Cyprus. But maybe they cant do it. I really dont know nothing about Cyprus, but I believe there was a win by democratic president few weeks ago. In a presidential democracy. Maybe he wont let Cyprus to lean east and preferes to be raped in the ass by EU .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #777,020
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:57am Mar 24, 2013 11:57am
but Cyprus is not the only reason for Euro drop
Quoting attila
Here's another thought.. If I were a multi billionaire.. They only need 10B... I would lend Cyprus the money.. and then I would put a huge long position on e/u that would effectively make me my money back.. I know.. insider trading and stuff... but if we disregard that, it's a workable solution.. So now I own Cyprus for nothing..

Oh, and I would also become the Russians oligarchs new best friend..
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