EURUSD

With some hang arounds

well said
then dont get involved & dont get hurt

or you may give a try
up to you

Nah, thx, I just found such a pointless quarrel funny?. I would prefere to know what do you think of Cyprus not in need of bailout scheme.

T

as you posted
who is going to pay going to own the south of island

I am waiting an action from israel actually.

I'm not too concerned with the Cyprus noise either, I'm curious to see which direction we head this week, given the fact that media & noise can play into the short term volatility I suspect slight moves up but the greater trend should be lower for the week.

Bank of Cyprus accounts may be taxed 25%, deal possible Saturday

Cyprus Finance Minister Michael Sarris said `significant progress`had been made and said talks were centered on a possible levy of around 25% on holdings of over 100K euros at Bank of Cyprus.
A 10% levy doesn`t sound so bad anymore. Earlier reports said a deal wouldn`t be done today but Sarris said the package could be ready “late this afternoon or early evening” for approval by parliament.

just heard on cnn that cypriots had voted pro-bank-levy, but can´t find a link yet

edit:
http://rt.com/news/cyprus-bailout-tax-troika-730/

edit2: not sure if they still have to vote or what not, let´s wait

What a surprise

Various reports say the government and Troika have agreed on a deal.
The deal will include a 20% tax on deposits at the Bank of Cyprus and a 4% levy at other banks. Pension funds will not be part of the package, according to Reuters who cites an anonymous source.

This would be an cool agreement.

Russians f.k.d... euro up? as much as a gap?

Probually and them some. Ms Market my pee her panties.

The Euro exuberance rocket is on the pad. Lift off on Sunday afternoon EST...

I am long and short so green pips regardless.

MISSION ABORTED...put that Euro rocket on ice.



Nicosia official says Cyprus not in reach of deal with troika, blames IMF

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...03/2013_489584

This is beyond stupid with yes she will and no she wont.

Its Saturday and time for some cocktails and market reflection. Double martinis are lined up...

I found this thread while looking for news data feeds on this currency pair.. Some really good information here - the spot FX community is enormous!

Although i havent traded spot in several years(I owned an FX IB for awhile) as I am know back in the Futures business, I have gravitated towards a lot of the trading action in the foreign currencies(futures and options)...

That being said, here are my thoughts on the Eur/USd:

Ive been playing this market short since the March Futures and Options Expiration - whereas as I sold At The Money 131 Call OPtions for 43 pips 16 hours before they expires on March 8th while simultaneously buying April 133 Call options for the same premium - this is called "ratio write" - or more specifically a "callendar spread ratio write, or horizontal spread"(doesnt really matter what you call it, Its just a "TRADE" so long as you understand the arithmetic ), whereas I sold a "ratio" of 2 Calls for every 3 Call's I bought.

^I chose this strategy for several reasons: 1 - I want to be short the Euro and didnt mind being "excersized" on the 131 Calls(should the Euro have closed above 131 on March 9th my account would be issued short contracts in the Euro) as they would be protected by the 133 Calls I own with 30 days to "defend" this position and play to the downside. And if not, I would still have my 133 Calls I "own" to use as an anchor/stop loss to Sell Euro Futures against it.. Well, seeing as the euro did not strenghthen enough for my to get short at an "attractive" uptick price, I was unable to short this market "heavy" - as in shorting the same amount of contacts as the number of 133Call's I own.. So i took smaller shorts, which paid off.. several times..

I have since rolled some of my gains(on the shorts) to pay for 130 APril Call options(expire Apr 4)... I am now fully leveraged(and covered) being short the same amount of Euro Futures as I own 130 Calls..


^This is perhaps a very aggressive and obviously directional play in the Euro.. The "smart" trade in the Euro, was to to a ratio of 3 purchases of the 130 April Call options(last trade 111 pips, i own them for 64-68 pips) and subsequently sell 2 postions of the Euro Futures..

^This strategy puts you in a position to profit on the market moving against you(Euro rallies up) so long as it moves 100 pips+, whereas you bail out of all positions, taking a loss on 2 shorts, and taking a gain of 3 long call Options(an "in the money options" has a Delta of 1:1, so obviously you will be making money tick-for-tick to the upside).. Your risk in this trade is "time value", as these options only have a 2 weeks of life left in the, so if the Euro calms down(unlikley) and trades in low volume/volatility/range, you will slowly start to bleed equity as time decays - meaning your shorts will be flat, and your CALL options will be losing premium daily - and then exponentially depending on the greeks(options value model - Black Scholes)..

^however, if the Euro pluges, you have the "optionality"(no pun intended) to cover your 2 shorts for 100 points(1.2900, my first target) you can book 200 pips, while seeing the 133 Call Option depreciate down from 111 to ~40-65 points... In this event, i will continue to look to reshort the Euro on any bounces...

I did this same strategy in the BP/USD all Nov, Dec, and Jan... best market to do thes strategies is in the Aussie/usd... low implied volitility means CHEAP insurance(this is what options are)...


anyways, just food for thought... Trading always boils down to probabilities - and therefore, it's helpful to have other instruments to help contruct managed risk trades around. I realize this is not the easiest strategy to digest - but I assure you it is as easy as simple Addition and Subtraction - with a tiny bit of understading in what determined "implied volatility" and "time value".

yes true my 1st targer is 1.3050(gap closure)
and
I I imagine that.. but never say never .. 1.3140 get us higher 1.32xx even 1.33xx .......that way I have that strange point of view for that 2nd level shorting from 1.3100.. to a 1st tp 1.29...2nd tp 1.28 (the chanses for this level are not much.. I know)
i see that everybody expect go down ..and when a bearish expectasion become everybody's choice for sure wee will go up...

watching http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ talks on the Euro zone..

regardless of news we have a megaphone bottom reversal pattern stop loss 1.2970
all have a nice day

Where the hell have you been? I give no attention to Cyprus media circus. If it's about tax evasion and money laundering the international community has bigger fish to fry somehere else but not Cyprus

The media need headlines to generate income. What is new?

If Cyprus was a big issue, EUR would be at 1.25 by now

But hey, let the analysts on FF busy and have something to analyse