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EUR/CHF

  • #10,301
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:10am Mar 18, 2013 6:10am
I don't know the reason of the spike but I was long all the morning with TP at 1.2270 near the close of the gap.
Maybe I reenter later again. I was lucky nothing more
  • #10,302
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:10am Mar 18, 2013 6:10am
Wonder what caused the spike.
  • #10,303
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:12am Mar 18, 2013 6:12am
I follow real time news on dailyfx and there's no comment about this spike.
  • #10,304
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:15am Mar 18, 2013 6:15am
Quoting duderoo1
Wonder what caused the spike.

Perhaps this?

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=415997
  • #10,305
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:18am Mar 18, 2013 6:18am
I'm long again!
  • #10,306
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:19am Mar 18, 2013 6:19am
Quoting goransk
I'm long again!
Price?
  • #10,307
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:32am Mar 18, 2013 6:32am
Quoting goransk
I got the spike!! Today i'm the lucky bastard!! Cheers!
Nice one.
Congratulations
:-)
  • #10,308
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:58am Mar 18, 2013 6:58am
- If a retest of 1.2204 ,could long it from here targeting 1.24

- Cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: dollarswiss.png Size: 19 KB
  • #10,309
  • Mar 19, 2013 9:47am Mar 19, 2013 9:47am
"There is a rumor that Cyprus' central bank says that if the deposit levy bill is not passed then Cyprus will leave the euro."

- I don't believe this rumor.
- But I believe in shorting it, or waiting for a drop below 1.2150 to go long again.
  • #10,310
  • Mar 19, 2013 10:15am Mar 19, 2013 10:15am
My long @1,23 from six weeks ago is looking pretty sick at the moment! But I'm in that for the long haul. It's a position small enough in relation to my equity to withstand anything down to (and just below) 1,20 so I'm not sweating yet.

In the meantime just opened another small long at slightly above 1,22 (on the new trading platform which I am trying out), betting that the Cyprus rumour will soon prove false. Couldn't resist.
  • #10,311
  • Mar 21, 2013 10:06am Mar 21, 2013 10:06am
Very tense yet boring. Scalping minilots both ways to lull the time, waiting for this weekend.

This weekend's game....
First thought : I dare not bet on either direction come Friday seeing ECB gave Cyprus the ultimatum on Monday & many things can happen over the weekend.

Second thought : Better long over the weekend on Friday aftn. If over the weekend some good agreement comes in Cyprus, on Monday, we get the long gap-up. If nothing comes out, we still got the early Asian open time to close our position while ECB's ultimatum comes into force during the European time.

But overall, it's risky - just my 2 cents...
  • #10,312
  • Mar 21, 2013 10:25am Mar 21, 2013 10:25am
Quoting alaneth
Very tense yet boring. Scalping minilots both ways to lull the time, waiting for this weekend.

This weekend's game....
First thought : I dare not bet on either direction come Friday seeing ECB gave Cyprus the ultimatum on Monday & many things can happen over the weekend.

Second thought : Better long over the weekend on Friday aftn. If over the weekend some good agreement comes in Cyprus, on Monday, we get the long gap-up. If nothing comes out, we still got the early Asian open time to close our position while ECB's...

I agree with you. Plus: the chances for a gap "up" are much higher than those for a gap "down". The stakes for Russia, the EU and Cyprus are simply too high to let the ECB's deadline pass without a solution. It's a pokergame with each player knowing that Cyprus must not be allowed to go bankrupt but no one wanting to pay the price. Just make sure you have enough downside tolerance to survive potential panic spikes down to the SNB-cap, and my best guess is you will be richer by the time the Easter bunny comes along... Trade well!
  • #10,313
  • Mar 21, 2013 10:27am Mar 21, 2013 10:27am
I think this levels is very good entry for long time trading. Stop below 1,2 Target 1,3-1,32. The risk reward is 4:1. So if you have 10% risk you could get 40%. profit. With 20% risk the reward is 80%. You need only to wait wait wait.

In january there was a news about options buying: 3 months 1,25 target and 6 months 1,3 target. The first is history, the price went above 1,25 in 3 weeks after options buying. The 6 months option will expire at 2013 june 30.

80 % profit is enough for one year...

And if you are boring you could scalp wih this pair additonally: always long with stop 1,198 (depending your broker)
  • #10,314
  • Mar 23, 2013 12:14pm Mar 23, 2013 12:14pm
“SNB Concerned”: Does a Yes to the Swiss Gold Referendum Imply an End of the CHF Cap?
  • #10,315
  • Mar 23, 2013 1:00pm Mar 23, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting worsttrader
“SNB Concerned”: Does a Yes to the Swiss Gold Referendum Imply an End of the CHF Cap?
I read this article and a couple of other pieces on the same topic. I am long EUR/CHF in a position which is safe so long as the 1,20 cap isn't breached, so I *am* interested!

I have no way of gauging Swiss public opinion on this point, but, even supposing the Swiss pass the referendum (the same right wing party sponsored the minaret-building ban which was approved by referendum in 2009 although no other political party backed it), I'm not convinced that this would mean that the SNB would have to abandon the 1,20 cap. At worst (from the SNB's point of view) it would mean that the bank had to buy gold at the top of the market. Some interesting SNB comments here: http://www.centralbanking.com/centra...ver-gold-sales where, between the lines, I read that the constitutional conflict (referendum result versus independent central bank) would give the SNB plenty of room for manoeuvre.
  • #10,316
  • Mar 23, 2013 1:31pm Mar 23, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting Plofkip
I read this article and a couple of other pieces on the same topic. I am long EUR/CHF in a position which is safe so long as the 1,20 cap isn't breached, so I *am* interested!
hope u r right. can't wait to go down to 1.20xxx to get in a long.
  • #10,317
  • Mar 24, 2013 9:44am Mar 24, 2013 9:44am
I still don't see a direct link on the Swiss gold buying to 20% and an end to the 1.20 cap.

I see buying gold by printing more CHFs will also weaken the CHF, so it's good for SNB right?
I'm not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?
  • #10,318
  • Edited Mar 25, 2013 6:34am Mar 24, 2013 2:00pm | Edited Mar 25, 2013 6:34am
Quoting alaneth
I still don't see a direct link on the Swiss gold buying to 20% and an end to the 1.20 cap.

I see buying gold by printing more CHFs will also weaken the CHF, so it's good for SNB right?
I'm not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?
The article implies that SNB will buy gold with its EUR (or other currency) reserves, which would create extra supply of EUR, weakening it vs. CHF.
  • #10,319
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:02pm Mar 24, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting enivid
The article implies that SNB will buy gold with its EUR (or other currency) reserves, which would create extra supply of EUR, weakening its vs. CHF/
So do you think the floor of 1.20 will hold?
  • #10,320
  • Mar 24, 2013 8:47pm Mar 24, 2013 8:47pm
Eurozone finance ministers have agreed a deal on a 10bn-euro bailout for Cyprus to prevent its banking system collapsing and keep the country in the eurozone.

The levy on deposits in Laiki (Popular) Bank - the country's second-biggest - could be as high as 40%, reports say.

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