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S&R short term bounces

  • #161
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:00am Mar 20, 2013 4:00am
In & out again...watch this thing shoot +30 now. News though :
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  • #162
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:06am Mar 20, 2013 4:06am
As I'm trading a US account, we have this BS first in/first out rule which would screw up my longer term eu gap trades...so I couldn't take the below, instead taking the previously posted EJ. Nonetheless.
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  • #163
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:10am Mar 20, 2013 4:10am
Thanks for the heads up @ GU. Was focused on euro tonight.

This is a gold setup IMO...idk how much you trade 1hr type setups but this is about as nice as they get for first time back trades. I'm already short a little bit GU and will get heavily short, barring major news, @ 1.5065-75 range.
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  • #164
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:12am Mar 20, 2013 4:12am
oh yes, would have been a great one on the eu. trading is fun today! a shame I have to leave soon for work....
  • #165
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:19am Mar 20, 2013 4:19am
I absolutely agree, gu looks good for a short soon. (if price comes back up)

to me timeframe does not matter too much. if I see a level on H1 it most of the time will be a strong level on the lower timeframes. the most important thing is price. The timeframes is just different views on the price. price itself is always the same...on all timeframes. you just have a closer look and more detailed look on the lower timeframes. so if thereīs something obvious...thatīs fine, I think.
  • #166
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:21am Mar 20, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Findus
The timeframes is just different views on the price. price itself is always the same...on all timeframes. you just have a closer look and more detailed look on the lower timeframes. so if thereīs something obvious...thatīs fine, I think.
  • #167
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:39am Mar 20, 2013 4:39am
red new on gbp... no trades for now
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  • #168
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:47am Mar 20, 2013 4:47am
Yeah, damn news, always messing with my setups.
  • #169
  • Mar 20, 2013 6:16am Mar 20, 2013 6:16am
Bear in mind that it's the UK budget announcement at 12.30 UK time today-prices could go haywire on gbp pairs.
Good thread-hope you've got a better Risk Reward ratio i.e. 1:1 by now!
  • #170
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:10am Mar 20, 2013 9:10am
eur/usd did bounce pretty well as expected... but unfortunately I wasnīt at the screen....
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  • #171
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:19am Mar 20, 2013 9:19am
Quoting bootsyjam
Bear in mind that it's the UK budget announcement at 12.30 UK time today-prices could go haywire on gbp pairs.
Good thread-hope you've got a better Risk Reward ratio i.e. 1:1 by now!
hey bootsyjam,

as you can see 2 post before your post, I was aware of the news on the gbp. and yeah... it went nuts today as expected.

regarding my RR I changed it from 3:1 to 2:1 (sometimes I think I should not have done that) and this journal will show
me whether to stay with that or not. I think I wouldnīt change it to 1:1 at the moment, because I would get stopped out
way too often. but who knows... for now I think Iīm fine with my settings.

thanks for your hints and if you have anything to contribute here, feel free to do so!

Findus
  • #172
  • Edited Mar 21, 2013 7:08am Mar 20, 2013 5:55pm | Edited Mar 21, 2013 7:08am
Quote
21# +13
22# -26
23# +13
24# +13
25# +13
26# -26
27# +13
28# +13
29# +13
30# -26
31# +13
32# +13
33# +13
34# -26
35# +13
36# +13
37# -26
38# +13
39# +13
40# +13
I was monitoring your last 20 trades...

Positive expectancy:
Pw>Ri/(Ri+Rw) = 15/20 > 2/(2+1) --> 0.75 > 0.66

Estimated DD over 1 year assuming 1 trade per day on average:
ln(365) / (-ln(0.25)) * 26 ~= 104 pips

Good stats for now... as long as you keep Pw higher than 0.66
  • #173
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:37am Mar 21, 2013 1:37am
Keeping an eye on this EU level
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  • #174
  • Mar 21, 2013 3:23am Mar 21, 2013 3:23am
Quoting sam0182
Keeping an eye on this EU level
Sam, I think you got your bounce on eu... nice. for now I will stay aside, cos there are some red new coming in europe...
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  • #175
  • Mar 21, 2013 3:31am Mar 21, 2013 3:31am
Quoting Marzullo
I was monitoring your last 20 trades...

Positive expectancy:
Pw>Ri/(Ri+Rw) = 15/20 > 2/(2+1) --> 0.75 > 0.66

Estimated Maximum DD over 1 year assuming 1 trade per day on average:
ln(365) / (-ln(0.25)) * 26 ~= 104 pips

Good stats for now... as long as you keep Pw higher than 0.66
hello Marzullo,

thanks a lot for your input! I understand what you mean, but I must ask this dump
question: could you please explain your calculations a little bit. I understand it roughly
but not all the figures involved in the calculation (for example: ...2/(2+1).... or (-In(0.25))*26....)

I really would like to understand it completely. So, I would appreciate a little explanation
as a little lesson for me.

thanks

Findus
  • #176
  • Mar 21, 2013 3:48am Mar 21, 2013 3:48am
this is what Iīm looking at on the EU...always assuming thereīre no news around when price reaches those areas
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  • #177
  • Mar 21, 2013 7:05am Mar 21, 2013 7:05am
Quoting Findus
hello Marzullo,

thanks a lot for your input! I understand what you mean, but I must ask this dump
question: could you please explain your calculations a little bit. I understand it roughly
but not all the figures involved in the calculation (for example: ...2/(2+1).... or (-In(0.25))*26....)

I really would like to understand it completely. So, I would appreciate a little explanation
as a little lesson for me.

thanks

Findus
Pw = probability to win
Ri = Risk
Rw = Reward

You have a risk of 1 and a reward of 2 so 2/(2+1) = 0.66
Your current Pw is 15/20 as you have been winning 15 trades over 20, so Pw = 15/20 = 0.75
Now, your equity has been growing over that 20 trades because the foundamental law of trading
is satisfied --> 0.75 > 0.66 (you need a Pw of at least 0.66 based on your Ri and Rw so that the equity can grow).

Now what's next is to estimate the drowdown to keep you going without abandoning the method
if it happens. There is a formula which estimates your future drawdown based on your current Pw over last K
trades. During the future N trades, provided you keep Pw at 0.75, you will be losing 4 times consecutively at MOST.
99% of times you will not be losing more than 4 times consecutively.

Ln(N)/(-Ln(1-Pw)) = Ln(356) / (-(Ln(0.25)) ~= 4

4 * 26 = 106 pips estimated DD.
  • #178
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:13am Mar 21, 2013 9:13am
Quoting Marzullo
Pw = probability to win
Ri = Risk
Rw = Reward

You have a risk of 1 and a reward of 2 so 2/(2+1) = 0.66
Your current Pw is 15/20 as you have been winning 15 trades over 20, so Pw = 15/20 = 0.75
Now, your equity has been growing over that 20 trades because the foundamental law of trading
is satisfied --> 0.75 > 0.66 (you need a Pw of at least 0.66 based on your Ri and Rw so that the equity can grow).

Now what's next is to estimate the drowdown to keep you going without abandoning the method
if it happens. There is a formula which...
hey Marzullo,

that was a clear explanation! now it makes sense to me. thank you for that! I didnīt know there was a way
to calculate a possible drawdown with these figures. Iīve still got a lot to learn. most important thing for
me is to get a feeling for my method and become comfortable with it in my daily life and see if I can keep
the pw over 0.66, meaning being profitable.

Findus
  • #179
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:19am Mar 21, 2013 9:19am
EU bounced as expected... but again wasnīt at the screen....
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  • #180
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:28am Mar 21, 2013 9:28am
trade# 41

eur/usd - long

TP 13
SL 26
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