In & out again...watch this thing shoot +30 now. News though :
ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies
Why Trading Forex is So Difficult - Long Term vs. Short Term 84 replies
Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies
DislikedThe timeframes is just different views on the price. price itself is always the same...on all timeframes. you just have a closer look and more detailed look on the lower timeframes. so if thereīs something obvious...thatīs fine, I think.Ignored
DislikedBear in mind that it's the UK budget announcement at 12.30 UK time today-prices could go haywire on gbp pairs.
Good thread-hope you've got a better Risk Reward ratio i.e. 1:1 by now!Ignored
QuoteDisliked21# +13
22# -26
23# +13
24# +13
25# +13
26# -26
27# +13
28# +13
29# +13
30# -26
31# +13
32# +13
33# +13
34# -26
35# +13
36# +13
37# -26
38# +13
39# +13
40# +13
DislikedI was monitoring your last 20 trades...
Positive expectancy:
Pw>Ri/(Ri+Rw) = 15/20 > 2/(2+1) --> 0.75 > 0.66
Estimated Maximum DD over 1 year assuming 1 trade per day on average:
ln(365) / (-ln(0.25)) * 26 ~= 104 pips
Good stats for now... as long as you keep Pw higher than 0.66Ignored
Dislikedhello Marzullo,
thanks a lot for your input! I understand what you mean, but I must ask this dump
question: could you please explain your calculations a little bit. I understand it roughly
but not all the figures involved in the calculation (for example: ...2/(2+1).... or (-In(0.25))*26....)
I really would like to understand it completely. So, I would appreciate a little explanation
as a little lesson for me.
thanks
FindusIgnored
DislikedPw = probability to win
Ri = Risk
Rw = Reward
You have a risk of 1 and a reward of 2 so 2/(2+1) = 0.66
Your current Pw is 15/20 as you have been winning 15 trades over 20, so Pw = 15/20 = 0.75
Now, your equity has been growing over that 20 trades because the foundamental law of trading
is satisfied --> 0.75 > 0.66 (you need a Pw of at least 0.66 based on your Ri and Rw so that the equity can grow).
Now what's next is to estimate the drowdown to keep you going without abandoning the method
if it happens. There is a formula which...Ignored