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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #337,061
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:45am Mar 15, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Qayas
what to trade.... gbpusd eat my big account today..... any suggestion
Inserted Video
  • #337,062
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:04am Mar 15, 2013 10:04am
GBP began to move sideways at 1.5150/60 level.

I went short at 1.5146
Price made a new high, so I added second position at 1.5159
Stop loss is 1.5230
Take profit is 1.5091/93
I will will lower stop loss soon.

Quoting fx-analyst
Currently gbp is near other good resistance level (according my calculation 1.5150/60)
I will look for short setup around this level if other factors will confirm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gbp-Short2-March15.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #337,063
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:10am Mar 15, 2013 10:10am
Quoting fx-analyst
GBP began to move sideways at 1.5150/60 level.

I went short at 1.5146
Price made a new high, so I added second position at 1.5159
Stop loss is 1.5230
Take profit is 1.5091/93
I will will lower stop loss soon.
Now Testing 1 hr demand @ .5122 .. Gotta Pray it doesn't hold , If you are targeting .5091 ..
  • #337,064
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:30am Mar 15, 2013 10:30am
That was a hell of a white knuckle ride over the last two days.

Had a 30% drawdown at one stage yesterday, but managed to get out at the very, very smallest of profits at 1.5078 yesterday evening. (As you will appreciate, was short.)

Today was in the market a few times at smaller ticket sizes, and each blended trade was profitable. Great that I can have a long weekend off (St. Patrick's day on Sunday in Ireland) and not be worried about big moves over the weekend.

Disappointed that I didn't take a long at the 1.4835 mark, as it was bouncing off the lower end of a long-term downtrend for the third time, which is always, in my experience, a good time to trade, particularly after it dropped sharply on Tuesday to hit that level.

Funny old game. My "style" is to wait until Cable is what I believe to be over-bought or over-sold, and then take a contrary trade. It does mean, however, that I have to wait extended periods for the right trade, and then have the "wherewithal" to actually make the trade.

Good luck to all.
  • #337,065
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:04pm Mar 15, 2013 12:04pm
Hi taomql4,

You are right, GBP is at demand level (marked as yellow).
But Gbp is choppy and still below down trendline.
Hope Gbp will drop after touching trendline....




Quoting taomql4
Now Testing 1 hr demand @ .5122 .. Gotta Pray it doesn't hold , If you are targeting .5091 ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gbp-short-March15-at_demand.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #337,066
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:56pm Mar 15, 2013 12:56pm
GBP touched Bollinger bands at 60 min chart.
Also Kijun 60 min.
I think that Gbp will fall (maybe towards 1.5050), however don't want to leave open positions for weekend.
So I closed both positions at 1.5113
Profit was 33 pip and 46 pip.

Have a nice weekend,
Analyst



Quoting fx-analyst
GBP began to move sideways at 1.5150/60 level.

I went short at 1.5146
Price made a new high, so I added second position at 1.5159
Stop loss is 1.5230
Take profit is 1.5091/93
I will will lower stop loss soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gbp-short-March15-before-close.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #337,067
  • Mar 15, 2013 1:24pm Mar 15, 2013 1:24pm
Good position... Sell agree

Quoting fx-analyst
GBP touched Bollinger bands at 60 min chart.
Also Kijun 60 min.
I think that Gbp will fall (maybe towards 1.5050), however don't want to leave open positions for weekend.
So I closed both positions at 1.5113
Profit was 33 pip and 46 pip.

Have a nice weekend,
Analyst
  • #337,068
  • Mar 15, 2013 1:33pm Mar 15, 2013 1:33pm
Next week we will see 1.48 again
  • #337,069
  • Mar 15, 2013 1:38pm Mar 15, 2013 1:38pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.jpg Size: 79 KB


Again toward DOWN
  • #337,070
  • Mar 15, 2013 1:51pm Mar 15, 2013 1:51pm
just got out of real mess.. daily and weekly profit targets met.. happy weekend all..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #337,071
  • Mar 15, 2013 1:55pm Mar 15, 2013 1:55pm

Quoting baherhosni
just got out of real mess.. daily and weekly profit targets met.. happy weekend all..
  • #337,072
  • Mar 15, 2013 2:33pm Mar 15, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting Maso
thanks

oh.. and one more thing.. a message to the bulls in da house, please beware of the possible head and shoulders pattern forming on both H1 and H4.. you can also see it on funto's latest charts..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #337,073
  • Mar 15, 2013 3:00pm Mar 15, 2013 3:00pm
Hello. I'm a newbie here. I'd been screwed by Poundsterling yesterday, I had short at 14874 and at 14950 suddenly price went up like crazy today up to 15175. I cut them both at 15091. Lost many wasted pips. Now I'm still holding my long at 15129 and price has just suddenly dropped again until 15087, I hedged it at 15088. I really don't know what to do. I got minimum equity. Anyone here would like to give me any suggestion please? Thank you in advance.
  • #337,074
  • Mar 15, 2013 3:16pm Mar 15, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting anindocortez
Hello. I'm a newbie here. I'd been screwed by Poundsterling yesterday, I had short at 14874 and at 14950 suddenly price went up like crazy today up to 15175. I cut them both at 15091. Lost many wasted pips. Now I'm still holding my long at 15129 and price has just suddenly dropped again until 15087, I hedged it at 15088. I really don't know what to do. I got minimum equity. Anyone here would like to give me any suggestion please? Thank you in advance.
i would keep the hedge if i were you. gbpusd may bee falling again for a test of support. may go all the down to 5000 if not beyond..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #337,075
  • Mar 15, 2013 3:19pm Mar 15, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting Maso
Next week it will fall again? Am I right?
I wish I knew mate, I really do

Lol...

I still see 1.5 as a barrier for the bears.
If I get a bullish signal from there then still thinking 1.5250
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #337,076
  • Mar 15, 2013 4:12pm Mar 15, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting anindocortez
Hello. I'm a newbie here. I'd been screwed by Poundsterling yesterday, I had short at 14874 and at 14950 suddenly price went up like crazy today up to 15175. I cut them both at 15091. Lost many wasted pips. Now I'm still holding my long at 15129 and price has just suddenly dropped again until 15087, I hedged it at 15088. I really don't know what to do. I got minimum equity. Anyone here would like to give me any suggestion please? Thank you in advance.
Beginner trading gbp is suicide . Go look at weekly am daily next time. A better pair that's less volatile for newbie is suitable for ppeople likeu. Leverage kills hard in gbp
  • #337,077
  • Mar 15, 2013 4:14pm Mar 15, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting baherhosni
thanks

oh.. and one more thing.. a message to the bulls in da house, please beware of the possible head and shoulders pattern forming on both H1 and H4.. you can also see it on funto's latest charts..
Nice one baherhosni, I agree.

Things now seem to be lining up nicely next week for a 1.5 retest off resistance.

I'll be watching out for signs of a bounce from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu3.gif Size: 15 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #337,078
  • Mar 15, 2013 4:48pm Mar 15, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hope you don't mind me elaborating on this a little more. I posted the following in another thread a few hours ago.

First of all, none of us will always be right with our trade assessments, but we don't need to in order to be profitable in this business. Think about a professional baseball player, they get paid millions of dollars to strike out 7 out of 10 times!

What about if you're at a casino and you win 3 out of 4 games? That is only a 75% win rate but think about how quick your money will start to build up! The problem is, we are...
Well said...very nice post with lots of truth behind it.

I'd add that the most profitable methods will only take profits on 10-15% of all trades taken because those methods capture huge chunks of trend. Problem is that most traders aren't patient enough to let the trend work and mentally cannot handle long strings of losses.

With that being said all my shorts from last week were wiped out at breakeven and I received nothing for my hard work, but had the trend continued who knows how many pips I would be up now. Congratulations to all the bulls who managed to pick the bottom this week (or at least have stopped the bleeding)!

Also why is the last button no longer at the top of this thread?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #337,079
  • Edited 5:51pm Mar 15, 2013 5:24pm | Edited 5:51pm
You won't like this advice but it is the best thing you can do in the long term.

1. Close all trades.
2. Decide what you need to get out of your trading activity - your goal, then devise a plan (objectives) to reach that goal...this should include:
3. Learn what a trading edge is and is not and what you need to know about it re it's historical performance metrics
4. Get your self an edge - howsoever derived and make sure you know it's historical performance metrics and keep these up to date as you trade it.
5. Understand that there may be a 'profit gap' between actually having a proven consistently profitable trading edge and actually trading it - so that it achieves this for you. The gap is generally and commonly referred to as 'trading psychology.' This may account for a large % of any such gap.

One more thing; per your post - if you are long at 5129 and short at 5088 - you are not 'hedged' - don't kid yourself - you locked in a loss of -41pips. Unless you ' manage ' this overall 'position' by adding volume to the winning side this will remain the case and for the record I am not saying that that is what you should do - you must make your own trading decisions. Achieving steps 2-5 (Timescale think 3-5 years) will give you the best chance but no guarantee of achieving your trading goal (s.) Don't do them - and the greater probability to an almost certainty is that over time - you will not.

G/L

Quoting anindocortez
Hello. I'm a newbie here. I'd been screwed by Poundsterling yesterday, I had short at 14874 and at 14950 suddenly price went up like crazy today up to 15175. I cut them both at 15091. Lost many wasted pips. Now I'm still holding my long at 15129 and price has just suddenly dropped again until 15087, I hedged it at 15088. I really don't know what to do. I got minimum equity. Anyone here would like to give me any suggestion please? Thank you in advance.
ex member
  • #337,080
  • Mar 15, 2013 5:39pm Mar 15, 2013 5:39pm
W/e Review

Some strength showing now up to 4hr t/f which runs counter to the current downtrend on the daily and to recent bearish conditions.

Price travelled only 86% of it's 124pip 20 day atr on Friday, but 166% of it's 207pip 20week atr this week just closed. So far this month it has travelled 66% of it's 552pip 20 month atr.

Mixed picture therefore at the close re t/f's to 4hr and daily and above.
----------------------------------------------

No fractal swing created by the close of the bullish master engulfing x 2 weekly candle...this t/f remains in rangy-bearish opa [overall price action] after the downside break out of the recent range - seeing a HH at 6349 down to this week's 4830 low....just shy of 76.4% 4225-6746. 100sma remains above it's 200sma on this t/f - the 100sma pointing down

Friday's daily candle closed as an inverted hammer but with a bullish body and was an upside follow thru on the PB candle created at the 4830 low and yesterday's bullish thrust candle. No fractal swing created by Friday's daily candle close. This t/f remains in an opa downtrend and it's 100sma has converged on it's 200sma from above it and is pointing down.

The 4hr t/f is now in something of an opa uptrend and price has crossed upside of it's 100sma which remains below it's 200sma but flattening out somewhat ? No fractal swing created by last 4hr close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wkly.jpg Size: 325 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dly.jpg Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.jpg Size: 146 KB
ex member
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