JPY Cross Pairs

To be honest, I don't use this site whatsoever in my trading, but I post them for others' viewing. My system is basically D1 MACD, H1 Williams %, and PASR.

The good thing about this particular analysis is that it is a summary of most ALL technicals along with quite a few moving averages all in one.

Yea the Kyle Bass stuff was pretty interesting, glad you enjoyed it!

I see. Still, it would be interesting to take a "hindsight" look at them and see how they did against PA.

Agreed! I don't know if I want to spend that kind of time though... LOL

You up for the challenge?

If I had the time I would. But you know my situation right now. If not for the wee hours of the morning, I wouldn't have time to post or trade.

exit with more than risked but small trade. Although I think strong upside has around 24 hours to run. You guys must be doing great longing JPY. I am down 0.07 risk for the year.

aujy at 100 makes me a bit nervous.

JPY cross pairs are heading higher and higher in the coming weeks and even months, technically and fundamentally speaking.

you could well be right. However I figured out the game I play and will stick with it and not deviate. I got long signal, enhancement to my existing system, and bet small as I am still collecting statistics. It worked again

However, how much could one bet with 30 pips stop and not become target of manipulation ? That is what bothers me.

Found my own private place in the market - that was large step for me.

I am glad to hear that you have a system that works and you stick with it. That is very important!

Many people are influenced by others' opinions and trade ideas without knowing all of the other factors involved in that person's trading system.

Keep up the good work SeaMan2.

I'm not really an EW fan but I found this for anybody who is.

USD/JPY Now Underway To 98.00 (Elliott Wave Analysis)

USDJPY is trying to stay with a larger uptrend now after a recent reversal down to the 95.50 support line, which appears to be wave iv).

Wave iv) found support around the trend-line connected from 91.00 and also near 38.2% Fibonacci support zone which was ideal start point for wave v). This wave v) could lift the pair up to 98.00 level in the near-term.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...ch-14-2013.png

Global Currency War: The Pacific Theater
by Mike Burnick

Last month in a Money and Markets column, I pointed out that the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate would be the next battleground in the global currency war.

Since early February, the euro currency has declined nearly 5 percent against the greenback, which may sound insignificant, but in the world of Forex it qualifies as a sizeable move.

What's more, the euro looks poised to slide even lower against the buck, driven by several key economic and monetary factors that are behind this exchange rate move.

First, euro-zone growth prospects have gone from bad to worse relative to the U.S. The European Commission just revised down its outlook for the 17-nation euro zone, admitting GDP will contract 0.3 percent in 2013, while unemployment climbs to 12.2 percent.

That's not to say U.S. growth prospects are much better. But our economy is at least moving in the right direction relative to Europe, and that's all that matters.

Second, thanks to the recent backup in Treasury bond yields, global investors can now earn higher interest rates in the U.S. relative to safe-haven bonds in Europe. The benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury yields 2.02 percent, compared to 1.48 percent on comparable German bonds.

Once again, it's the trend of growth prospects and interest rates in the U.S. relative to Europe that matters most.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/media...72/Chart1s.jpg

Global central banks are fully engaged in a fight to devalue their currencies as shown by the growth in their balance sheets. Investors are likely to see plenty of action on the euro-currency front in the months ahead. But let's not lose sight of the other front in this global currency war ... the Pacific and Japan!

Japan's Offensive a "Victory"

After all, Japan's offensive against the yen is making the biggest waves in global Forex markets. And Japan's policies are likely to spark retaliation from its Asian neighbors.

Recall that Japan's economy has been stagnant and mired in deflation for the past 15 years. Quantitative easing was practically invented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a desperate bid to escape its economic death-spiral. But Japan's new government is taking money-printing to a whole new level.

In January, Tokyo signed off on a 10.3 trillion yen stimulus package — equivalent to 2.6 percent of GDP. The BOJ is adopting a 2 percent inflation target and committing its foreign exchange reserves — the world's second-largest — to buy government bonds and perhaps stocks.

Total government "stimulus" spending now amounts to more than 75 trillion yen since 1999, and adds to an already staggering debt level of 220 percent of Japan's GDP.

In other words, Ben Bernanke's Fed has got nothing on Japan ... the BOJ is engaged in another league of high-stakes money printing ... and Japan's offensive has so far been a spectacular "victory."

* Japan's currency sank 19 percent against the dollar in just the past three months ...

* And the yen has plunged over 20 percent against the euro ...

* Meanwhile, Japan's export-dependent stock market has soared 25 percent over the same period.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/media...72/Chart2s.jpg

This is the measure of success in the zero-sum currency war game. However, Japan's Asian neighbors, particularly China, are no doubt already plotting a counter-attack.

Will Asia Strike Back?

Asia's other export-dependent economies: China, Taiwan, South Korea, etc., are already feeling the pinch from a cheaper yen. The most telling sign is stock market weakness.

While stocks in the U.S. and Japan are soaring this year, thanks to easy money engineered by the Fed and BOJ, China's Shanghai Composite is up just 1.02 percent. Stocks in Taiwan have gained only 1.6 percent, while South Korea is down 3.07 percent in 2013!

Clearly investors are worried the cheaper yen will cut into exports because companies in China, Taiwan, and South Korea are now placed at a competitive disadvantage.

And it's only a matter of time before they strike back, retaliating in kind.

"Currency wars in Asia may be the world's most intense," the American Enterprise Institute warned recently. That's because there is so much at stake economically as each economy fights for its shrinking share of trade in the midst of weak global demand.

As the currency wars escalate in Asia, keep an eye out for the likely winners and losers ...

First, the LOSER: Japanese Yen!

Japan is "winning" the currency war by torpedoing the yen's value. The early victory will only embolden the BOJ to pull out all the stops and further devalue the yen.

Japan's Prime Minister put it best when he said his latest policies are: "on a different scale from previous measures." I take him at his word.

Granted, the yen has already made a big move, and you may think you've missed the trade. But I expect more yen weakness perhaps after a short-term bounce.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the USD/JPY exchange rate well above 100 soon, and perhaps above 115, from 96 currently. There are numerous ways to potentially profit including yen futures, options, and targeting the USD/JPY pair in a Forex account.

Also, an ETF to consider is the ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS).

Second, the WINNERS: Asian Stocks!

The spectacular gain in Japanese stocks this year shows the measure of success in currency wars: Export dependent stock markets, such as in South Korea and Taiwan, get a big boost from a cheaper currency. The Bank of Korea is already discussing potential interest rate cuts to strike back.

Although both markets have been under pressure lately, any retaliation in kind by South Korea and Taiwan to weaken their currencies and regain competitiveness with the yen would almost certainly boost their stock markets.

ETFs to consider include the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped Index (EWY) and the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT).

Bottom line: Currency wars are heating up across the Atlantic and Pacific. After Japan's "victory" with the yen I'm closely watching for even more profit opportunities from any potential escalation in Asia. Global currency wars can make for volatile markets, but can also lead to Forex gains, and trigger major moves in global stocks as well.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick

USDJPY:
BUY
It is better due to ichimoku indicator to set an order on buy and TP: 96.6927 and stop loss I think near 95.961. Good luck.

Hello traders,
an update for the USD Dollar Index that can be helpful not only for trading the EUR/USD (52% of the Dollar Index) but also the other major pairs USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

We had a sequence a of two traditional measured moves higher: the first with long entry in the 82.30 area with target in 83. The second with entry in the 82.70 area and targets at 83.40 (today's highs). We now have a new (third) long setup in the sequence at the 83.00 area (check the picture below).

The third long setup just traded: support was shown at the 83.01 level. This long setup has a stop, and failure level, below 82.90. Below this level the sequence of measured move is interrupted and we could see the start of the move lower in the Dollar Index (Scenario 1)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363277753

Here are my two scenarios, as usual:

Scenario 1. If price comes below the 82.90 level the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart ends and price could start its move towards the 20-day SMA (partial targets area). The move could then continue lower after a bounce.

Scenario 2. If the next setup long on the daily chart is respected, i.e. price of the index never moves below 82.90 there is the possibility of a continuation higher into the next target at the 83.60 area (1st target) and even higher.

Let me know what you think.
Thank you

PS: Euro FX futures just approaching the resistance at 1.3000 in my last analysis

Gidday

Funny how the US/JPY 96

then creeps back down

Looks like it wants 90

Still sitting on longs,but have reduced risk for now

weekend an all that

Goes up I win,goes down I wait

Nikkei may want to have an up day today. Yen just went negative. USDJPY can go higher.

Gidday

Just posted an the YEN sparks up

Grasshopper must read these forums

Decided to close out quite a few positions in profit as I was a little over leveraged for my liking, especially due to the fact that we are coming up on the weekend.


On another note: Below are results on a DEMO account utilizing the Third Screen Strategy of Dr. Alexander Elder for USD/JPY and 4 other JPY Cross Pairs.

AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and USD/JPY.

4 Max Positions per currency pair

D1 MACD - Uptrend

H1 Williams % - All positions were bought when conditions showed "over sold"

SL: 160 pips

TP: 280 pips

Risk:Reward: 1:1.75


Notice that the first position at the very bottom was opened 1 week ago on March 8th. The most recent position up top (AUD/JPY) was opened up about 8 hours ago.

Details about the Third Screen Strategy method can be found here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=382032
(this past week was basically a "text book" example for the cross pairs in regards to how this strategy works)

*Also note that GBP/JPY is not listed as the swings with that pair are too volatile for this particular strategy*

LOL I knew you would like that!

Unfortunately that's the damn truth! The Dragon is too volatile for my system and belongs in a completely different category all together...

LOL...Yep! That's why I chose it for testing myself. I figure if I can trade a live $100 "standard" 50:1 account and build it on the dragon? I'm doing OK....LOL

Started it December 1st and just crossed $519 this week if I close these two positions right now

But I think she may have some left so I moved my TP's to 146.10

$519 after 3 1/2 months starting with $100?

That is awesome bro! What is that about a 500% return right?

I give you props man, especially because of the pair you are building with...the dragon scares me! (my win rate what that pair is like 35% hahaha)