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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #336,861
  • Mar 12, 2013 7:43pm Mar 12, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting zusch
As I mentioned before, its mainly the long lower wicks that have been created with closes above 1.49. Also yesterdays candle is technically a "flying buddah" although not a very convincing/actionable one. No arguing that there have been lower lows and lower highs which is the definition of a downtrend. Have to keep in mind the weekly candle is saying strong sell.

Everything other than the RSI is saying strong sell. These patterns have been evident almost all the way down from 1.62.

Not that i have the balls to go short! It just seems wrong to me psychologically to be entering shorts in the 1.40's, just waiting to enter long from as low as possible.
Money never sleeps...
  • #336,862
  • Mar 12, 2013 7:57pm Mar 12, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting zusch
As I mentioned before, its mainly the long lower wicks that have been created with closes above 1.49. Also yesterdays candle is technically a "flying buddah" although not a very convincing/actionable one. No arguing that there have been lower lows and lower highs which is the definition of a downtrend. Have to keep in mind the weekly candle is saying strong sell. Maybe we get a false breakout of 1.4918 (yesterdays high) and move lower from that point, but really difficult to predict at this time.
Ok, thanks.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,863
  • Mar 12, 2013 8:00pm Mar 12, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting inpatient
Everything other than the RSI is saying strong sell. These patterns have been evident almost all the way down from 1.62.

Not that i have the balls to go short! It just seems wrong to me psychologically to be entering shorts in the 1.40's, just waiting to enter long from as low as possible.
Don't get me wrong I put much more stock into the weekly/monthly candles than a daily candle so I'm still confidently holding short, but I see no reason to shorting right now. I'd say that a 4HR close under 1.4884 is confirmation the bulls have lost control and the weekly trend will prevail, so I'll just wait until that happens...no need in shorting now trying to anticipate too early. Price just needs some time to play itself out and show its hand. I also have the same 4HR as Hope.

For now theres no reason to stare at the charts. Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels is on so I'll just watch that. Unfortunately/surprisingly that movie is under the radar in the States.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,864
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:07pm Mar 12, 2013 9:07pm
stop hunting asian session, up 40 pips from the low
  • #336,865
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:28pm Mar 12, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting ForexRatVN
So! should I call this is a weekly bottom of GU.

I will enjoy more if it is a monthly or even yearly bottom, then I can buy more stuff with my salary in GBP and so on. I really enjoy the time GBP = 2 USD

Any way, back to trading, I hold my short from 15030 SL 14940 & TP 14800. Meanwhile, I kick-off 2 positions long to wait for 15300 or 15600
re-enter another short @ 14936 target for 80 pips down before any true move up north.
  • #336,866
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:42pm Mar 12, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting ForexRatVN
re-enter another short @ 14936 target for 80 pips down before any true move up north.

i agree a small short is a fairly safe bet from here but 80 pips before the news im not so sure. TP at 1.49 for 40 pips profit is a solid trade IMO.

Then wait for news to make a fresh decision
Money never sleeps...
  • #336,867
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:44pm Mar 12, 2013 9:44pm
seems to have bottomd careful shorters

short covering could take it all the way to 1.5050 or 1.51...
  • #336,868
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:48pm Mar 12, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting inpatient
i agree a small short is a fairly safe bet from here but 80 pips before the news im not so sure. TP at 1.49 for 40 pips profit is a solid trade IMO.

Then wait for news to make a fresh decision
Will keep close eye on the trade. The BE will set after 20 pips on direction
  • #336,869
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:51pm Mar 12, 2013 9:51pm
Quoting Halba
seems to have bottomd careful shorters

short covering could take it all the way to 1.5050 or 1.51...
I am happy to see GU go 1.50 or even higher 1.53 too, but my bias on the re-visit bottom at least once before up north. Keep fingers cross
  • #336,870
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:52pm Mar 12, 2013 9:52pm
Against my normal style but entered short with a stop at BE searching for 1.4904

No risk trade now so nothing to lose!
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Money never sleeps...
  • #336,871
  • Mar 12, 2013 9:54pm Mar 12, 2013 9:54pm
On the upper right of my chart you will see my main descending trendline which has held accurately now for weeks. It is why i entered short (which i feel generally uncomfortable doing in the 1.49's ((psychologically worries me)).
Money never sleeps...
  • #336,872
  • Mar 12, 2013 10:08pm Mar 12, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting inpatient
On the upper right of my chart you will see my main descending trendline which has held accurately now for weeks. It is why i entered short (which i feel generally uncomfortable doing in the 1.49's ((psychologically worries me)).
agree with your analysis. above 1.50 is a short.

bear in mind most of the news is factored in, and the QE is still a few months off, as Carney hasnt even been appointed yet
  • #336,873
  • Mar 13, 2013 12:03am Mar 13, 2013 12:03am
I think this last hour is very playable for shorts. Previous candle was green, but had a very nice long upper wick off of 1.4950 (round number) and this hour that just closed confirmed the validity of that wick. Very tight stops can be used.

Another reason why this is attractive for shorts is because we put in hardly any retrace of yesterday's daily candle if that makes sense. 4HR just closed and is saying buy, but we have to remember the weekly trend. I know I said I'd be waiting for a 4HR close below 1.4884, and that is still a valid place for stacking another position.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,874
  • Mar 13, 2013 12:50am Mar 13, 2013 12:50am
Quoting inpatient
On the upper right of my chart you will see my main descending trendline which has held accurately now for weeks. It is why i entered short (which i feel generally uncomfortable doing in the 1.49's ((psychologically worries me)).
U have an sl at BE so u basically have nothing to loose as u said. I think u r more worried about getting used to change in ur style. right?
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #336,875
  • Mar 13, 2013 12:52am Mar 13, 2013 12:52am
Quoting zusch
I think this last hour is very playable for shorts. Previous candle was green, but had a very nice long upper wick off of 1.4950 (round number) and this hour that just closed confirmed the validity of that wick. Very tight stops can be used.

Another reason why this is attractive for shorts is because we put in hardly any retrace of yesterday's daily candle if that makes sense. 4HR just closed and is saying buy, but we have to remember the weekly trend. I know I said I'd be waiting for a 4HR close below 1.4884, and that is still a valid place...
Still need someone give a hit take it down
  • #336,876
  • Edited 1:27am Mar 13, 2013 1:02am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting ForexRatVN
Still need someone give a hit take it down
Yeah was expecting that we at least close below the previous hours lows. Instead we retraced past 61.8% of that candle, but closed pretty weak. I'm down a pip so I'm just going to hold and let it play out.

Edit: Got out with a few pips loss...
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,877
  • Mar 13, 2013 2:16am Mar 13, 2013 2:16am
A 4hr close (in 1hr 45 mins for me) below 4937 will be encouraging.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,878
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:20am Mar 13, 2013 3:20am
We are rather close to the area where price found support on Thursday and Friday last week. We had a similar thing happen the week before or the week before that. Price went and challenged what was support the week before, before rejecting, turning around and heading lower.
  • #336,879
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:23am Mar 13, 2013 3:23am
Quoting zusch
Sucks how different brokers use different daily opening times and different 4HR open times...makes it harder for traders like us to communicate. Doesn't make a difference though as long as we follow the monthly/weekly trend. When I bought a new computer and installed TradeStation, I found my 4HR candles opened 1 hour later than on my old comp, but I knew it wouldn't affect my trading. Sometimes you'll be able to get in sooner than me and sometimes I'll get in sooner than you.
It would make things too easy for us if our 4hr and daily candles all closed at the same.
  • #336,880
  • Mar 13, 2013 3:35am Mar 13, 2013 3:35am
looking for a short around the 1.50 phycological area round number and all that what do you guys think ?
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