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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #336,721
  • Edited 4:40pm Mar 9, 2013 12:15pm | Edited 4:40pm
W/e Review

Friday's pip range (162) came in at 125% of the 20 day atr which is now 125. The week saw a pip range of 313 which is 155% of the 201pip 20 week atr. So far this month price has covererd 313 pips range which is 56% of the 552pip 20 month atr.

Another bearish Weekly candle with a longer upper wick than lower wick on the candle and although no fractal swing created by it's close - it will be at a LL off the last fractal swing which was the HH, when it does form. The weekly lo was at 4884. This t/f remains in a strong down move although not strictly an opa downtrend yet per fractal swings.

A bearish candle close on the Daily on Friday although lower wick is longer than it's upper wick. No fractal swing created by Friday's candle close although it will be at another LL in this t/f's opa downtrend when it does form.

The last 4hr candle was bearish and this t/f remains in an opa downtrend.

Looking to the downside of the closing price:

4900-4884 prev 1hr/minor 4hr sw lo zone

4869 Monthly S1 @/around

4822 76.4% 4225-6746

4806 Weekly S1 @/around

4688 Weekly S2 @/around

4595 85.4% 4225-6746

4576 Monthly S2 @/around

4400-4342 prev minor weekly sw lo zone incl 4374 = Weekly S3 @/around

4332-4225 prev weekly/monthly sw lo zone
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ex member
  • #336,722
  • Mar 9, 2013 12:48pm Mar 9, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting bbmac
W/e Review

Great quality post, very much appreciated
Money never sleeps...
  • #336,723
  • Mar 9, 2013 12:53pm Mar 9, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting bbmac
W/e Review

Friday's pip range (162) came in at 125% of the 20 day atr which is now 125. The week saw a pip range of 313 which is 155% of the 201pip 20 week atr. So far this month price has covererd 313 pips range which is 56% of the 552pip 20 month atr.

Another bearish Weekly candle with a longer upper week than lower week and although no fractal swing created by the the close of the weekly candle - it will be at a LL off the last fractal swing which was the HH, when it does form. The weekly lo was at 4884. This t/f remains...
Yup, thats cable.. Works hard up the ladder then gets out of breath and falls like stone.. Its allover the weekly chart. The UK's last exercise was the 2012 Olympics. Once the activity and its effect is over, its a free fall. I mean may be the UK needs to work out a strategy to keep some demand around to ease the falls a bit. Look how steep that last downward move is on the daily. I mean I don't even remember now how many times we thought a bottom is around the corner.
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #336,724
  • Mar 9, 2013 12:55pm Mar 9, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting inpatient
Great quality post, very much appreciated
Not just that post my friend. bbmac's posts are all like that. the guy hardly says anything but amazingly powerful information. I personally think that he deserves a special type of vouch that is different from everyone else. Like gold colored vouches or something.
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #336,725
  • Mar 9, 2013 2:15pm Mar 9, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting bbmac
W/e Review

Friday's pip range (162) came in at 125% of the 20 day atr which is now 125. The week saw a pip range of 313 which is 155% of the 201pip 20 week atr. So far this month price has covererd 313 pips range which is 56% of the 552pip 20 month atr.

Another bearish Weekly candle with a longer upper week than lower week and although no fractal swing created by the the close of the weekly candle - it will be at a LL off the last fractal swing which was the HH, when it does form. The weekly lo was at 4884. This t/f remains...
Nice analysis I agree completely. Trading really is as simple as checking which color the last candle is for monthly/weekly/daily charts and trading in the same direction. What is "OPA" because I'm not sure what you mean by that.

What kind of retrace are you expecting next week? I see you've got support zones listed, but what about resistance levels? Those should be more important/focused on if we are attempting to enter short.

I think there is a strong chance we don't see 1.5 next week. Should we not I think 1.4965 will be a place the next wave down could begin. That level is the 50% retrace of Friday's daily candle and Thursday's low.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,726
  • Mar 9, 2013 2:20pm Mar 9, 2013 2:20pm
Check out my favorite contrarian indicator. Big retail long interest in the pair, which gives me confidence to hold my shorts.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#GBP/USD
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,727
  • Mar 9, 2013 2:35pm Mar 9, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting zusch
Check out my favorite contrarian indicator. Big retail long interest in the pair, which gives me confidence to hold my shorts.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#GBP/USD
Very nice analysis. I do agree with you holding short positions on GBPUSD .
  • #336,728
  • Mar 9, 2013 4:21pm Mar 9, 2013 4:21pm
Hi,

I will answer your questions in the order you raise them...

1. OPA = Overall Price Action (previous fractal swing hi/lo anaysis) as a means of establishing technical chart conditions -ie classically trending, generally trending or classically ranging.

2. Attached is my near term 1hr chart too..re potential resistance/RBS to the upside (Resistance Becomes Support)- Simply put I look at the previous fractal swing lo zones (ie previous support breeched to the downside that may act as resistance in any pullback from that underside) on significant t/f's along with fibs and trend lines in order to assess whether/where to 'sell the pullback'

3. Re size of retrace expected- I have no predictive powers - so just as well i don't need any - I just play my edge - I don't have to know what will happen next to make money.

G/L

Quoting zusch
Nice analysis I agree completely. Trading really is as simple as checking which color the last candle is for monthly/weekly/daily charts and trading in the same direction. What is "OPA" because I'm not sure what you mean by that.

What kind of retrace are you expecting next week? I see you've got support zones listed, but what about resistance levels? Those should be more important/focused on if we are attempting to enter short.

I think there is a strong chance we don't see 1.5 next week. Should we not I think 1.4965 will be a place the next...
Attached Image
ex member
  • #336,729
  • Mar 9, 2013 4:47pm Mar 9, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting zusch
Yeah you would have to open an account. I know they are part of an ECN so they offer competitive spreads. I haven't really noticed the spread being too much even in Asian session which I trade frequently. Maybe you're a scalper and then spreads would be more important, but extra fractions of a pip don't affect my own profitability.
yes, I mainly scalp. With IB you pay about 0.25 Pips commission, but the spread is usually at 0.5 pips (EU) and a limit buy order (for instance) may get filled at the bid. So you pay 0.25-0.75 Pips.
  • #336,730
  • Mar 9, 2013 4:49pm Mar 9, 2013 4:49pm
Watching out for a retest of 38.2% of last week / RED TL / close of Thursdays spinning top / 1.5 area.
There's alot there
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,731
  • Mar 9, 2013 5:50pm Mar 9, 2013 5:50pm
There's every chance we may have to hold onto our hat's on this one

Let's see...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,732
  • Mar 9, 2013 7:40pm Mar 9, 2013 7:40pm
Quoting bbmac
3. Re size of retrace expected- I have no predictive powers - so just as well i don't need any - I just play my edge - I don't have to know what will happen next to make money.
I hear you on that...trade what you see not what you think is going to happen.

Looking at your 1HR chart I see a lot of trendlines, "resistance zones", Fibs, etc..so many to me it looks like clutter and of course price is going to bounce at one of those zones. I'm assuming you are entering strictly on price action which means you are simply not going to enter just because it has reached one of these zones (in part because there are so many). And if you are trading strictly price action why take the time to drawn the levels you have at all? I'm a believer in making trading as simple as possible and I was just hoping you'd have a preferred area in particular where you sense a higher probability of a bounce.

I hope I don't sound too critical...just trying to understand your point of view.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,733
  • Mar 9, 2013 8:24pm Mar 9, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting zusch
I hear you on that...trade what you see not what you think is going to happen.

Looking at your 1HR chart I see a lot of trendlines, "resistance zones", Fibs, etc..so many to me it looks like clutter and of course price is going to bounce at one of those zones. I'm assuming you are entering strictly on price action which means you are simply not going to enter just because it has reached one of these zones (in part because there are so many). And if you are trading strictly price action why take the time to drawn the levels you have at all?...
When trading Price Action is it CRITICAL to trade at significant support / resistance areas otherwise it is basically meaningless.

PASR is a package deal! Price Action @ Support / Resistance
  • #336,734
  • Mar 10, 2013 12:44am Mar 10, 2013 12:44am
Quoting 100PipsADay
When trading Price Action is it CRITICAL to trade at significant support / resistance areas otherwise it is basically meaningless.

PASR is a package deal! Price Action @ Support / Resistance
Cant be said any better! And when one sees an analysis like this It is up to the trader when how and for how long to trade his position based on his/her own strategy and money management.
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #336,735
  • Mar 10, 2013 12:59am Mar 10, 2013 12:59am
Quoting baherhosni
Cant be said any better! And when one sees an analysis like this It is up to the trader when how and for how long to trade his position based on his/her own strategy and money management.
Exactly!
  • #336,736
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:38am Mar 10, 2013 7:38am
It is the confluence of the potential support/resistanace factors both on the same and the next higher t/f (s) that determine where the highest probability chances of a swing point are (not all potential supp/res confluences/factors are created equal!)- Crucially also, as referred to by a poster above PA is everything - ie when price reaches a pre-identified potential support/resistance zone/factors/confluence - prevailing price action on the t/f's of interest to it and than at it will tell us what the greater probability is - ie of a break or a bounce - and this informs the trading decision (if indeed any is made there) or indeed the trade management descision made there (ie hold or close,) if already in a trade.

G/L

Quoting zusch
I hear you on that...trade what you see not what you think is going to happen.

Looking at your 1HR chart I see a lot of trendlines, "resistance zones", Fibs, etc..so many to me it looks like clutter and of course price is going to bounce at one of those zones. I'm assuming you are entering strictly on price action which means you are simply not going to enter just because it has reached one of these zones (in part because there are so many). And if you are trading strictly price action why take the time to drawn the levels you have at all? I'm...
ex member
  • #336,737
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:47am Mar 10, 2013 7:47am
NFP and unemployment moved this lower.
  • #336,738
  • Mar 10, 2013 10:46am Mar 10, 2013 10:46am
Quoting bbmac
It is the confluence of the potential support/resistanace factors both on the same and the next higher t/f (s) that determine where the highest probability chances of a swing point are (not all potential supp/res confluences/factors are created equal!)- Crucially also, as referred to by a poster above PA is everything - ie when price reaches a pre-identified potential support/resistance zone/factors/confluence - prevailing price action on the t/f's of interest to it and than at it will tell us what the greater probability is - ie of a break or...
Ok I think we are on the same page. Price action will generally identify which resistance area is significant by the shape of the candles it forms after touching those areas, so why try to identify what areas will provide resistance? (this goes back to not having predictive powers). The point I was trying to make was that on the 1HR chart you posted you essentially have a resistance zone/line every 20 pips, so of course price will be bouncing somewhere, so why have them at all?

Say we know GBPUSD will be lower within 24 hours and you are only selling after the close of a red hourly candle. That means you have 24 possible candles that could be the start of the next wave down (realistically the move should happen within the first 12 hours or so). With that idea in mind...how important is support/resistance really?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #336,739
  • Mar 10, 2013 12:33pm Mar 10, 2013 12:33pm
I will anser your points below:

1. I place on certain t/f charts consistent with my trading edge - the potential support and resistance factors identified by the 'potential support/resistance' factors methodology that is part of my trading edge...where they appear they appear they are not decided by me but by the market...it does not follow that price will necessarily bounce ffrom one of those areas, and it does not follow that one would necessarily trade at each one in respect of considering them a potential swing point.

2. We don't know what price will do - that is one of the underlying assumptions of technical analysis - we do not know that gbpusd will be lower in 24hrs from now...so the idea you mention is flawed. The importance of potential supoport/resistance (for some trading edges) is that they tell you where a recent obvious imbalance of demand over supply or supply over demand occurred or may occur as a result of the existance of potential supp/res factors there...that is all....this is importnat to know if looking to enter the market at suchg areas (dependant on prevailing PA to the area and at the area) and for trade management of a trade that reaches such an area (s) as explained in last post re assessing or not what the greater probability may be of future near term PA.

3. I do identify which areas are historically most likely to provide potential supp/res and to do this I need to see all the 'potential' supp/res factors historically shown to do so - which is why I put them on certain charts per my the methodology associated with my trading edge.

G/L

Quoting zusch
Ok I think we are on the same page. Price action will generally identify which resistance area is significant by the shape of the candles it forms after touching those areas, so why try to identify what areas will provide resistance? (this goes back to not having predictive powers). The point I was trying to make was that on the 1HR chart you posted you essentially have a resistance zone/line every 20 pips, so of course price will be bouncing somewhere, so why have them at all?

Say we know GBPUSD will be lower within 24 hours and you are only...
ex member
  • #336,740
  • Mar 10, 2013 1:05pm Mar 10, 2013 1:05pm
Do you expect some upward moves for this week?

Quoting bbmac
I will anser your points below:

1. I place on certain t/f charts consistent with my trading edge - the potential support and resistance factors identified by the 'potential support/resistance' factors methodology that is part of my trading edge...where they appear they appear they are not decided by me but by the market...it does not follow that price will necessarily bounce ffrom one of those areas, and it does not follow that one would necessarily trade at each one in respect of considering them a potential swing point.

2. We don't know what...
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