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EUR/CHF

  • #10,281
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:35am Mar 7, 2013 11:35am
I think I need to open a few demo accounts to see what bid/ask interest rates are being offered by other brokers.

In the meantime, though, my month-old EUR/CHF position (long @1,23) is looking very healthy after the ECB decisions and Mario Draghi's reassuring press conference.
I saw the ECB's position described as "complacent" in one news feed. That might prove to be telling critique, but I still go to sleep every night repeating to myself the words: "And believe me, it will be enough."

:-)
  • #10,282
  • Mar 8, 2013 6:18am Mar 8, 2013 6:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130308 entry & exit.png Size: 120 KB


Encouragement for fellow EuroChofs.

Entered long at A, exited at B, doubled my capital (even allowing for the interest paid) and took that original capital out.
Playing now only with the realised gain, re-entered at C. Nobody knows where it'll go next of course, but D is looking good at the moment.
If it gets to 1,28 by the end of the year (without going through the SNB's 1,20 floor/ceiling in the meantime), I will have just about doubled my capital again.

I know: "pride comes before a fall". So, if I do lose my shirt somehow, I promise to come back and say so here!
  • #10,283
  • Mar 8, 2013 4:24pm Mar 8, 2013 4:24pm
Swiss ready to roll.

GBP/CHF bullish, I hope...
  • #10,284
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:05am Mar 12, 2013 3:05am
14.03.2013 09:30
Monetary policy assessment
14.03.2013 12:00
Speech by Thomas Jordan
  • #10,285
  • Mar 14, 2013 1:19am Mar 14, 2013 1:19am
Quoting daka
14.03.2013 09:30
Monetary policy assessment
14.03.2013 12:00
Speech by Thomas Jordan
2hrs to go, but we all know,...
"at the current rates, the Franc is still overvalued,... we will defend the floor with our Utmost Determination"
= sideways trading again.
  • #10,286
  • Mar 14, 2013 2:22am Mar 14, 2013 2:22am
Meanwhile closed 15% long .from 2191 @2307 with +116 pips
Pending longs on the way if we go down again
  • #10,287
  • Mar 14, 2013 2:26am Mar 14, 2013 2:26am
Inverse H&S forming on D1 anyone?
  • #10,288
  • Mar 14, 2013 2:36am Mar 14, 2013 2:36am
Quoting alaneth
= sideways trading again.
Sideways?
Are you sure you're holding your phone the right way up?
;-)
PK
  • #10,289
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:02am Mar 14, 2013 10:02am
Quoting Plofkip
Sideways?
Are you sure you're holding your phone the right way up?
;-)
PK
Just my prediction before SNB's decision on what may happen......

OK, now my prediction is correct about SNB, but no sideways happening. Uncertain fluctuations now.
  • #10,290
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:04am Mar 14, 2013 10:04am
What now....
SNB's decision over - no change.

Anyone knows how to trade this pair now?
Any strategies to share?

I don't know what to do..... long? short? scalp?
Thanks
  • #10,291
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:54am Mar 14, 2013 11:54am
Quoting alaneth
What now....
SNB's decision over - no change.

Anyone knows how to trade this pair now?
Any strategies to share?

I don't know what to do..... long? short? scalp?
Thanks
For the time being, the pair looks unpredictable to me. I guess we need some major news or several consecutive trading days with a slight but linear upward or downward trend to move it below 1,2250 or above 1,24. While it is difficult to predict when and how far the pair will move upwards (and, thus, when to TP or go short), I am almost certain that it will fall back to around 1.21 at some point. As we have seen with the Italian elections, all we need is a single piece of panic news to the downside, and there is plenty of stuff out there waiting to happen (e.g. Italian government building may fail and their bonds rates skyrocket; Cyprus or Greece may go down the drain; US economy may show signs of slow down due to sequester; the ECB may cut rates; the UK may threaten to leave the EU; France may get into trouble etc.etc). So in my view it would be a miracle if we did not see 1.21 again before long. And that's the point to go long big time with a TP at 1.30, because that, too, is likely to happen before the end of this year. Until then, I'll hold on to a major long position which I keep for the long haul or for a significant surprise move up to 1.25 or more. Additionally, I play the intraday game with small positions, but I want to be sure to have a significant amount of powder dry when 1.21 comes along. I have learned very painfully that a fully loaded 500pip move in the right direction once a year pays off more (for less work) than all this exhausting intraday trading taken together.
  • #10,292
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:13pm Mar 14, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Bluedolphin
For the time being, the pair looks unpredictable to me. I guess we need some major news or several consecutive trading days with a slight but linear upward or downward trend to move it below 1,2250 or above 1,24. While it is difficult to predict when and how far the pair will move upwards (and, thus, when to TP or go short), I am almost certain that it will fall back to around 1.21 at some point. As we have seen with the Italian elections, all we need is a single piece of panic news to the downside, and there is plenty of stuff out there waiting...
Thanks for the reply. Although I'm lost at the moment, I have the same belief as you that once a hiccup happens in EZ, this pair will fall. Italy was a good recent example. And CHF is always a safe haven - nothing can alter it. So we just have to wait for more things to happen. I also hope to reload more longs at a lower rate. I have been waiting patiently and will continue to wait. True as you said, there are many uncertainties out there in the EZ economies and also not to forget the US & UK. They shift funds into CH as fast as EU countries do, strengthening the CHF very quickly.

Let's all hope for more excitement, whichever way it goes.
For me I'm Long & hoping for a drop to 1.21 before reloading heavily. Will start reloading minilots around 1.22 though.
  • #10,293
  • Mar 17, 2013 2:59pm Mar 17, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting alaneth
Thanks for the reply. Although I'm lost at the moment, I have the same belief as you that once a hiccup happens in EZ, this pair will fall. Italy was a good recent example. And CHF is always a safe haven - nothing can alter it. So we just have to wait for more things to happen. I also hope to reload more longs at a lower rate. I have been waiting patiently and will continue to wait. True as you said, there are many uncertainties out there in the EZ economies and also not to forget the US & UK. They shift funds into CH as fast as EU countries do,...
Hey Alaneth: See, I told you so. Time to reload - trade well! ;o)
  • #10,294
  • Mar 17, 2013 3:14pm Mar 17, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting Bluedolphin
I have learned very painfully that a fully loaded 500pip move in the right direction once a year pays off more (for less work) than all this exhausting intraday trading taken together.
I am sure this isn't the only (or the whole) truth, but it has been my experience as well.
  • #10,295
  • Mar 17, 2013 4:44pm Mar 17, 2013 4:44pm
We've now dipped to 1.218.... I presume this fall is due to the Cyprus issue pushing flows into safe havens..... waiting for 1.213 before reloading minilots and 1.208 before reloading some megalots
  • #10,296
  • Mar 17, 2013 4:52pm Mar 17, 2013 4:52pm
they are smoking weed in Bruxelles
  • #10,297
  • Mar 17, 2013 4:56pm Mar 17, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting matheousse
they are smoking weed in Bruxelles
Just means more money for us CHF traders. I expect this will go closer toward the peg soon, at which point the SNB will make a statement about how they will defend the peg no matter what it takes..... currency will weaken...... happened so many times no reason why this will be different
  • #10,298
  • Mar 17, 2013 7:13pm Mar 17, 2013 7:13pm
Quoting Bluedolphin
Hey Alaneth: See, I told you so. Time to reload - trade well! ;o)
Yes, that's good. Reloading some minilots now.
Heard Cyprus postpone their vote to Monday. With a hung parliament, what will happen?

Will it drop further?
  • #10,299
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:01am Mar 18, 2013 6:01am
I got the spike!! Today i'm the lucky bastard!! Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #10,300
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:05am Mar 18, 2013 6:05am
Quoting goransk
I got the spike!! Today i'm the lucky bastard!! Cheers!
Explain more?
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