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Building an equity millipede

  • #5,761
  • Feb 28, 2013 6:15pm Feb 28, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting VEEFX
Well said Calc. Accounting rules and regulation should make no difference in trader's ability to profit. To me it is like this.... when you are driving past on ramp trying to get on a interstate highway with your left blinkers ON.
...........PM
Hi Vee like the analogy;
Still waiting to hear on the info I sent, but having seen your request I looked this out - something I produced few years ago; Do not know if it suitable as is - it is ATR related, but can adapt it to match or with additional info in an hour or three. Let me know.
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  • #5,762
  • Mar 1, 2013 12:39am Mar 1, 2013 12:39am
Quoting traderray
Hi Vee like the analogy;
Still waiting to hear on the info I sent, but having seen your request I looked this out - something I produced few years ago; Do not know if it suitable as is - it is ATR related, but can adapt it to match or with additional info in an hour or three. Let me know.
My sincere apologies for not responding Ray. I will definitely reply over the weekend along with the design requirements for this development effort.

Since you are so resourceful, I am also looking for an indicator that will display one candle each for UK, US and Asian sessions and one 'tiny' candle in-between for the overlap for two sessions. Similar to the auto sessions indicator showing OHLC candles to conduct PA analysis.

I am exploring a theory that I need to validate visually and take advantage of. Often times, London session sets the direction, US challenges the direction and decision is made during the session overlap @ london close. Asian opens first in reverse direction and then follows what US session ends with (with few caveats based on risk on/off market condition and JPN/HK stock index). It is based on global money flows at the macro level which can become a tool in my arsenal :-


Here's another thing I have noticed often times.... if a pair as moved more than 1% or certain pip range by Thurs, look for counter trade opportunities on Friday especially if this week's move was against the direction of the main trend.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,763
  • Edited 4:25am Mar 1, 2013 4:09am | Edited 4:25am
Quoting Calculus
I still don't know why people don't keep their own spreadsheet of trades, that way they can be managed perfectly. Yes, I know Vee has said numerous times that it's too much work for him (time is better spent on analysis/trading) but he's doing A LOT of trades a day when he gets going, his view is therefore very understandable. But I'd hazzard a gues that most traders here are doing 25% of Vee's daily trades, if that.

FIFO is in my view a massive red herring in all of this, I mean whether your broker offers it or not, it's NOT going to...
I would replace "A LOT of trades a day" with "A LOT of trades per event". When market gives, you got to squeeze as much juice out to your advantage. another 500+ pip extraction in 32 minutes! I was 'waiting' for this moment all day which was lousy for JPY pairs. It's 2:08am here and loving every minute of this awesome move in GBP

EDIT: note that my average short level is at 140.10. Price will retrace back to 140, If it is a bounce, stacking will resume. if not, all positions will be closed out at average BE. ... just another way to achieve the same results (or better in my opinion) instead of open one, move to be, and then open another. Risk is almost negligible after the first trade instead of always having one position at risk until it is moved to BE.

EDIT1: And here's a long on G/U to take advantage of bounce at 1.50... already at BE.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #5,764
  • Mar 1, 2013 10:16am Mar 1, 2013 10:16am
Quoting VEEFX
My sincere apologies for not responding Ray. I will definitely reply over the weekend along with the design requirements for this development effort.

Since you are so resourceful, I am also looking for an indicator that will display one candle each for UK, US and Asian sessions and one 'tiny' candle in-between for the overlap for two sessions. Similar to the auto sessions indicator showing OHLC candles to conduct PA analysis.
Seem to be getting off topic so will e-mail, but already have something that produces session and other candles, after all any one candle is a composite of others on different TFs. Will try and find it or something close over the Weekend.
  • #5,765
  • Mar 6, 2013 4:49am Mar 6, 2013 4:49am
Quoting pipEASY
For those who wonder just how much money is available.

Just 2 standard lots with just 2 positions at just only 800 pip growth each is already $32000.

Having just said that.... you do know/aware that as we currently speak many of the pairs are currently moving forward for the next 1000+ pip movement on the weekly charts.

Count every main movement of every pair in forex and then expanding your operation both into weekly and monthly. [u][b]You will find overlapping interest when taking trades for both weekly and monthy [color=purple]but...
Hello Guys,
2 Standart lots at 800 pips each,should be 16,000$ or 32,000$ ?
  • #5,766
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:28am Mar 6, 2013 5:28am
Quoting timos
Hello Guys,
2 Standart lots at 800 pips each,should be 16,000$ or 32,000$ ?
If i read correctly before, each position of pipEASY will be 2 lots... 2 positions means 4 lots, round numbers 32.000$, but that depends on pip value.

Trade well

JL
Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #5,767
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:34am Mar 6, 2013 5:34am
Quoting jlongo
If i read correctly before, each position of pipEASY will be 2 lots... 2 positions means 4 lots, round numbers 32.000$, but that depends on pip value.

Trade well

JL
You're right.Graeme is saying 2 lots per 1 position,so 2 positions at 2 lots each , 4 lots in total,meaning 32,000$.

Regards
Tim
  • #5,768
  • Mar 7, 2013 8:54pm Mar 7, 2013 8:54pm
"The power of stacking" if I understand correctly then with 20 pips spacing a 500 pips move becomes 6,500 pips and with the same 20 pips spacing 1000 pips move becomes 25,500 pips!!!
  • #5,769
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:25am Mar 8, 2013 2:25am
Quoting dadadada
"The power of stacking" if I understand correctly then with 20 pips spacing a 500 pips move becomes 6,500 pips and with the same 20 pips spacing 1000 pips move becomes 25,500 pips!!!
Yes, pretty much. The problem is how to decide when a move starts and when a move ends and how to place all these positions without getting into heavy drawdowns.
  • #5,770
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:02am Mar 8, 2013 8:02am
Quoting dadadada
"The power of stacking" if I understand correctly then with 20 pips spacing a 500 pips move becomes 6,500 pips and with the same 20 pips spacing 1000 pips move becomes 25,500 pips!!!
Yes, that's the power of stacking.

But in this game there's always a flip side, that being when your stacking doesn't work. So you 'aggressively' stack yet find that all that aggression means is loads of losses. G makes it sound very easy, 'bears are now in control so get stacking short' and that can work wonderfully when the market falls out of bed and keeps on moving lower.

But for every one of those clean types of moves I can show you probably 8+ where the market goes lower in a haphazard way and keeps stopping you out. Or you build a nice position but then price moves aggressivly against you, stops out all the stacks at breakeven and then makes the big move without your hard fought position.

Don't get fooled by this strategy. It sounds and looks wonderful at first but the more you look into it the more it breaks down UNLESS your short term trading skills are exceptional and/or the market makes lovely clean moves. If price doesn't make nice clean runaway moves then chances are a lot of heartache is coming your way.

The strategy still has a role to play for people who are looking to trade longer term but it needs plenty of adaptation in my opinion as markets aren't nice and this strategy depends on markets being generally nice (clean moves, no massive retracements etc).
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,771
  • Mar 9, 2013 4:30am Mar 9, 2013 4:30am
Quoting Calculus
Yes, that's the power of stacking.


But for every one of those clean types of moves I can show you probably 8+ where the market goes lower in a haphazard way and keeps stopping you out. Or you build a nice position but then price moves aggressivly against you, stops out all the stacks at breakeven and then makes the big move without your hard fought position.

The strategy still has a role to play for people who are looking to trade longer term but it needs plenty of adaptation in my opinion as markets aren't nice and this strategy depends...
Tis' true and that's why Graeme mentioned that more than 80% of his entries were taken out. With more volatility and players in the forex it has become more volatile and susceptible to strong moves one after another. This means that you either need to adjust for higher stop losses and reduce the size of your entries to account for it, or risk losing more. Just last night when Japan was buying along all the currencies there's a beautiful upwards movement that I've taken advantage of; having it left overnight I found all of them were taken out on strong down move on BE. It happens and more often during breakouts which is THE TIME to trade to some of us, while others would prefer to enter during quiet market hours.
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 0.1%
  • #5,772
  • Mar 9, 2013 1:54pm Mar 9, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting Calculus
Yes, that's the power of stacking.


The strategy still has a role to play for people who are looking to trade longer term but it needs plenty of adaptation in my opinion as markets aren't nice and this strategy depends on markets being generally nice (clean moves, no massive retracements etc).

This strategy may get trouble in early stage when you haven't got good profit to cover a retrace. Then, new open positions will increase large loss. Cut loss at fixed stoploss e.g 30 pips or 200 pips(outside of intraday noise or volatile range). Then, re-enter lost position at end of retrace. Another way is use of hedge to freeze positions, then, release hedged position after volatile retrace.

In general, large stoploss gap will hold your open positions for a long run, but, large drawdown will ocuur. So, you need huge trading fund to support each pair while price is slipping, and level down.
  • #5,773
  • Mar 11, 2013 3:27am Mar 11, 2013 3:27am
Quoting Jack168
This strategy may get trouble in early stage when you haven't got good profit to cover a retrace. Then, new open positions will increase large loss. Cut loss at fixed stoploss e.g 30 pips or 200 pips(outside of intraday noise or volatile range). Then, re-enter lost position at end of retrace. Another way is use of hedge to freeze positions, then, release hedged position after volatile retrace.

In general, large stoploss gap will hold your open positions for a long run, but, large drawdown will ocuur. So, you need huge trading fund to support...
my trading plan:
stack stack stack and then stack some more > build account balance (x3) to gain emotional comfort/confidence > allocate a portion towards weekly/monthly 'Cash Flow' for margin > invest into long term position building > retire with peace and tranquility > donate what's left after me to the Gates foundation
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,774
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:08am Mar 11, 2013 7:08am
[quote=VEEFX;6505098]my trading plan:
stack stack stack and then stack some more > build account balance (x3) to gain emotional comfort/confidence > allocate a portion towards weekly/monthly 'Cash Flow' for margin


I confused about -- account balance (x3) ? 3 times funds $ to which ?

How do you count your position size and account balance size? for safe holding your all stacks for a long period?

I believe free margin must be large enough for support a possible reasonable size pullback 300 to 500 pips for eur-usd. Yen pairs got even large pullback recently. A risk_on_point calaculation of free margin expectation may be needed during your stack holding life cycle.

More added_in positions (stacks) will need more free margin as your whole position expansion, and a pullback will expand more price change risk or margin call risk.

Large trend is not often seen. Recent eur-jpy mega trend went 3350 pips from last year July to last month. But, 4 years got 1 such trend, and most of small guys won't get all 3350 pips, I believe. If you can stack from beginning to end peak, then, you can retired, or 2nd Bill Gate fundation may be in your name. Anyway, good story.
  • #5,775
  • Mar 12, 2013 2:41am Mar 12, 2013 2:41am
[quote=Jack168;6505547]
Quoting VEEFX
my trading plan:
stack stack stack and then stack some more > build account balance (x3) to gain emotional comfort/confidence > allocate a portion towards weekly/monthly 'Cash Flow' for margin


I confused about -- account balance (x3) ? 3 times funds $ to which ?

How do you count your position size and account balance size? for safe holding your all stacks for a long period?

I believe free margin must be large enough for support a possible reasonable size pullback 300 to 500 pips for eur-usd. Yen pairs got...
I meant "starting balance x3" to build the initial capital for phycological comfort. Pullbacks are inevitable! I deal with them by stacking as early and swiftly as possible to keep my average price point at a 'safe distance' from current price. I cannot tell with a degree of certainty as I am not a guru with backtesting automation but feel moving BE to average position price level increases the survivability of long term positions but causes a nightmare with maintaining free margin... and how the hell should one determine the optimum level of free margin required for this millipede strategy to work??? After several years of research, using the cash flow concept of adding margin towards position building in the best and safest approach to margin call prevention. Graeme has given some good examples to that effect.

There are many ways to bake a cake... one just has to and figure our what works most of the time and then stick to the plan. If stacking was so easy, the snowball EA would have made millions by now and not freely available on forums!
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,776
  • Mar 12, 2013 7:10am Mar 12, 2013 7:10am
thank, vee.
  • #5,777
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:34pm Mar 13, 2013 11:34pm
Now THIS is stacking.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363225123

NOT my account though.

Comes from a hayseed post at
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post6513470

At posting, I guesstimate 860 pips from 128 pip move and holding 11 trades.

Awesome work.

cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #5,778
  • Mar 21, 2013 8:11am Mar 21, 2013 8:11am
This is my account guys.See the difference in my equity since I've start to use Graeme's approach. I've recover almost half of my loss.Just a big thank to Graeme whenever you are.

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  • #5,779
  • Mar 21, 2013 10:38am Mar 21, 2013 10:38am
timos: care to explain what entries you are focussing on and how do you go about it? Thx for sharing
- Play Smart!
  • #5,780
  • Mar 21, 2013 10:39am Mar 21, 2013 10:39am
Quoting profpip
timos: care to explain what entries you are focussing on and how do you go about it? Thx for sharing
Do you mean timeframe?
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TheGreatMilenko