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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #336,121
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:21am Feb 21, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yes, I think this month needs to end before we can go that high.

But, you think we can get back up there before we break below 5131??

Really hard to say bro. No doubt this has been an impressive fall with a LOT of steam behind it. For me it really depends on this week/month close. If it stays within this two year range (gray box) which is not unpresidented as it has so many times, I think a test of that 4 year LTL (5660ish) is certainly possible. But anything can happen of course and simply haven broken that 4 year LTL may be speaking volumes.

All I know is my birthday is the 25th and I want a nice GIFT on this long this month!!!!
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,122
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:24am Feb 21, 2013 7:24am
Quoting albchr
Here's hoping you're right bro. 5270 wasn't much support on the way down. Let's hope it isn't much resistance on the way up!

Oh sure...NOW it's strong...
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,123
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:27am Feb 21, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Redben
No, it's bearish. A higher high with the oscillator not matched by price is (theoretically) bearish.

Quick guide attached. Current situation seen on bottom right picture. As it happens, cable reacted well off bullish divergence this morning (top left picture).

But indicators lag and should only be used as a reinforcement of price action. I'm sure many would argue they shouldn't be used at all.

Don't use MT4, no.

EDIT: Though blobsaudio could well be right and I've misjudged from where to draw the divergence comparison line.
Ahhh...gotcha! Thanks for the info.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,124
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:31am Feb 21, 2013 7:31am
Quoting albchr
Really hard to say bro. No doubt this has been an impressive fall with a LOT of steam behind it. For me it really depends on this week/month close. If it stays within this two year range (gray box) which is not unpresidented as it has so many times, I think a test of that 4 year LTL (5660ish) is certainly possible. But anything can happen of course and simply haven broken that 4 year LTL may be speaking volumes.

All I know is my birthday is the 25th and I want a nice GIFT on this long this month!!!!
Oh well, happy birthday then mate

Ok, I see what you mean, I guess I'm focussing more on this highlighted chop in here as resistance. I've got my heart set on a 4950 retest also, this maybe affecting my perception.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,125
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:34am Feb 21, 2013 7:34am
Off to bed, night all
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,126
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:40am Feb 21, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Oh well, happy birthday then mate

Ok, I see what you mean, I guess I'm focussing more on this highlighted chop in here as resistance. I've got my heart set on a 4950 retest also, this maybe affecting my perception.
Thank you sir

Brother you may be 100% right. We've obviously "pierced" the bottom of that 2 year range and hard so this puppy may keep dropping without much pause. I'm still bearish big time. This long is ONLY a CT trade in hopes of a better short level to at least the 4950 you mention.

Have a great night sir!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,127
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:08am Feb 21, 2013 8:08am
Hmm, that is an interesting candle on the 1hr chart. Going down to the 15 minute chart price has been rather flat for a while now. So I see a nice potential to open a short forming.
  • #336,128
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:26am Feb 21, 2013 8:26am
Weekly and Monthly Charts.
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  • #336,129
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:35am Feb 21, 2013 8:35am
Quoting blobsaudio
Hmm, that is an interesting candle on the 1hr chart. Going down to the 15 minute chart price has been rather flat for a while now. So I see a nice potential to open a short forming.
Yep, interesting doji is that. My bias is short but that weekly S/R level is messing with my clarity.

Wait for this hourly bar to close and then reconsider.
  • #336,130
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:38am Feb 21, 2013 8:38am
I'm so loving this market right now

went short at resistance
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  • #336,131
  • Edited 9:07am Feb 21, 2013 8:47am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Redben
Yep, interesting doji is that. My bias is short but that weekly S/R level is messing with my clarity.

Wait for this hourly bar to close and then reconsider.
Not a trade I will personally be entering now due to an indicator on the 15 min saying it is oversold. Good rules.
  • #336,132
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:56am Feb 21, 2013 8:56am
Well that's disappointing. Moved before I could get in.
  • #336,133
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:05am Feb 21, 2013 9:05am
And we're back
  • #336,134
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:08am Feb 21, 2013 9:08am
Quoting albchr
Oh sure...NOW it's strong...
it touch my s/l then fly back up.

not sure what to do anymore. Better not risk when not sure.
  • #336,135
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:21am Feb 21, 2013 11:21am
Squeezing a short-term upward triangle here, with 272 as the top.

30 and 60 technicals still look short.

Tempted to short but having to stay neutral because of that weekly TF support line at 245-50.
  • #336,136
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:31am Feb 21, 2013 11:31am
if this hammer holds up on the daily, then I'm taking a long.

233 was a support and its above that now. Let's see if it holds.
  • #336,137
  • Edited 12:08pm Feb 21, 2013 12:01pm | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting NavExpert
it touch my s/l then fly back up.

not sure what to do anymore. Better not risk when not sure.
Hi NavExpert,

I assume you were long. So you must know you're fighting the current down trend? That said, if doing that (which I don't recommend), you must be willing to have a fairly wide SL and reduce your position size accordingly. Normally, I set a wide "safety net" SL in case I loose connection or something but I have a mental SL in mind where I will close it manually.

As I write this (at 5258) I wouldn't take any position so yes I agree with your comment above, "Better not risk when not sure"

As 5270 is STILL holding as resistance it may just hang a bit.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,138
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:14pm Feb 21, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting alex1976
if this hammer holds up on the daily, then I'm taking a long.

233 was a support and its above that now. Let's see if it holds.
I hear ya it's "trying" to make a nice pin but if it doesn't close above 5270 (50%) or better yet, above the DP at 5289, it may not mean much to me. Even if it's a nice "looking" daily pin, for me the location sucks if it doesn't take out that resistance.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,139
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:21pm Feb 21, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting albchr
I hear ya it's "trying" to make a nice pin but if it doesn't close above 5270 (50%) or better yet, above the DP at 5289, it may not mean much to me. Even if it's a nice "looking" daily pin, for me the location sucks if it doesn't take out that resistance.
That nice pin may not form. Looking at an indicator based set up I use, it is currently giving a short signal. It could be a bad signal and if not there is plenty of time left in the day for it to go down a bit then come back up to form the pin.
  • #336,140
  • Edited 12:55pm Feb 21, 2013 12:45pm | Edited 12:55pm
Dropped some as expected but being held by the weekly TF support, which (for now) kind of proves my reasoning not to take the short. 230 - 270 a corridor of uncertainty, as tired football punditry would put it, so will wait for movement outside this bracket before going in again.

Following on from the talk of hidden divergence earlier, the EURUSD offered a nice setup on the 30 min - HH on the stochs but LH on the price. The bearish envelope candle ending at 16.30 (UK time) was the safe trigger short. Just to illustrate it can be a useful tool in getting in with the trend.
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