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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #336,101
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:17am Feb 21, 2013 4:17am
Quoting Redben
Looks overbought on 30 and 60 TF but struggling to find entries for shorts due to it going back above 5245 S/R. 5280 possible shorting area but too close to news to risk it.

In a nutshell: clueless.
yep, looks overbought but 2.30pm is around the corner n news might be negative for usd. im in same situation with u.
  • #336,102
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:21am Feb 21, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Redben
Looks overbought on 30 and 60 TF but struggling to find entries for shorts due to it going back above 5245-55 S/R. 5280 possible shorting area but too close to news to risk it.

In a nutshell: clueless.
Chart? I'll never really understand over "bought/sold".

To me (and again I'm learning), it's not over anything until it changes direction on whatever TF you're looking at.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,103
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:22am Feb 21, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Ill-b-back
No Sir, what I mean is, I have (had at the time) 2hrs left of my 4hr candle, news is (was at the time) in 1.5hrs, so that leaves 30mins to get my magic close above my magic number on my magic candle after the magic news
OHHHH...I see...my bad......LOL

But then, I never was any good at magic...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,104
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:23am Feb 21, 2013 4:23am
Quoting Redben
Looks overbought on 30 and 60 TF but struggling to find entries for shorts due to it going back above 5245-55 S/R. 5280 possible shorting area but too close to news to risk it.

In a nutshell: clueless.
Yep, that's how the big boys want it
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,105
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:26am Feb 21, 2013 4:26am
Quoting albchr
OHHHH...I see...my bad......LOL

But then, I never was any good at magic...
It's ok Sir, an honest mistake by an honest man

lol... Yeah me neither, that's why I suck at trading mostly
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,106
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:31am Feb 21, 2013 4:31am
Quoting albchr
Chart? I'll never really understand over "bought/sold".

To me (and again I'm learning), it's not over anything until it changes direction on whatever TF you're looking at.
Sorry, no time to put the chart up now - off for lunch. Just a slow stoch and MACD on the 30 and 60 TF.

You're right though: price action first and foremost. Indicators are like condiments: season to requirements.
  • #336,107
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:32am Feb 21, 2013 4:32am
Quoting albchr
LOL...we suffer the same disease brother!

If I had every short I took at 6300ish still open? WOO HOO!!! I'd be rolling in it. This is actually why I'm trying to adjust to the higher TF's. I do fairly well playing bounces both ways on 4H and below and I enjoy it. But it's a crazy game that requires being at the screen almost non stop. Since I can no longer do that, I have to switch my approach.

That said, I often get in on the beginning of a nice long move but then that dam 4H and below part of me creeps in and I take myself out too...
  • #336,108
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:32am Feb 21, 2013 4:32am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yep, that's how the big boys want it
But..but...but....wait! We live in a socialist world with the US now following suit. All the promises made to us is that, the socialists want a "fair, level playing field" where we ALL prosper equally...no? So how can you say that??

Quoting Ill-b-back
It's ok Sir, an honest mistake by an honest man

lol... Yeah me neither, that's why I suck at trading mostly
Wish I got paid for my honest mistakes...LOL Yeah right...you suck at trading...NOT!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,109
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:34am Feb 21, 2013 4:34am
Quoting Redben
Sorry, no time to put the chart up now - off for lunch. Just a slow stoch and MACD on the 30 and 60 TF.

You're right though: price action first and foremost. Indicators are like condiments: season to requirements.
Understood sir... ... Wish you much success!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,110
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:41am Feb 21, 2013 4:41am
Quoting albchr
But..but...but....wait! We live in a socialist world with the US now following suit. All the promises made to us is that, the socialists want a "fair, level playing field" where we ALL prosper equally...no? So how can you say that??



Wish I got paid for my honest mistakes...LOL Yeah right...you suck at trading...NOT!!
I think maybe they not telling the truth

I know its a long shot, but it's all I got
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,111
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:44am Feb 21, 2013 4:44am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I think maybe they not telling the truth

I know its a long shot, but it's all I got
SHOCKING!!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,112
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:46am Feb 21, 2013 4:46am
[quote=albchr;6463726]Understood sir... ... Wish you much success![/quote

What do you think, a 5630 retest would be too much to ask before we sink lower?

If it were going to happen, it prob should have retraced there after the end of last week?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,113
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:52am Feb 21, 2013 4:52am
We need to clear the 55EMA on the 30M (5269ish) and hopefully at least touch it on the 1H (5320ish)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_30.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_1h.gif Size: 20 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,114
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:54am Feb 21, 2013 4:54am
Quoting albchr
Understood sir... ... Wish you much success!
And to you!

Quick chart to describe what I mean - based on 14,3,5 stochs (new to this posting charts gubbins so this will probably go wrong).

Hidden divergence (HH on the stochs not matched by price) is bearish so would normally look to short around areas of resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Overbought.jpg Size: 44 KB
  • #336,115
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:56am Feb 21, 2013 4:56am
Quoting Ill-b-back

What do you think, a 5630 retest would be too much to ask before we sink lower?

If it were going to happen, it prob should have retraced there after the end of last week?
That's what I'm hoping for as a nice short oppertunity. Although more around the 5660ish area.

See this one earlier as to "when" that test (if at all) might happen?

Quoting albchr
It's never smooth going up with this pair. It always seems to fight for days, weeks, months to climb and then CRASH in the half the time!! LOL

If you remember 100pips and I talking about this week possibly testing the 4 year triangle, well I'm starting to think perhaps we had the TF wrong on that view. Maybe it will be the monthly that tests it. Or perhaps it won't be tested at all. Breaking that triangle was key in my view and I believe this down move will continue to new lows. But it won't be a straight fall and I'm (as always for better or...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,116
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:02am Feb 21, 2013 5:02am
Quoting Redben
And to you!

Quick chart to describe what I mean - based on 14,3,5 stochs (new to this posting charts gubbins so this will probably go wrong).

Hidden divergence (HH on the stochs not matched by price) is bearish so would normally look to short around areas of resistance.
I don't use indicators so I don't really understand them but, wouldn't that be a bullish divergence?

Do you use an MT4 platform?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #336,117
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:09am Feb 21, 2013 5:09am
Quoting Redben
And to you!

Quick chart to describe what I mean - based on 14,3,5 stochs (new to this posting charts gubbins so this will probably go wrong).

Hidden divergence (HH on the stochs not matched by price) is bearish so would normally look to short around areas of resistance.
Shouldn't the line be drawn where I have just put it? I haven't looked at divergence in a while, but I always thought it was the previous 2 highs on the stock or 2 lows. Then check the chart to see if there is divergence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmm.jpg Size: 294 KB
  • #336,118
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:09am Feb 21, 2013 5:09am
Quoting albchr
That's what I'm hoping for as a nice short oppertunity. Although more around the 5660ish area.

See this one earlier as to "when" that test (if at all) might happen?
Yes, I think this month needs to end before we can go that high.

But, you think we can get back up there before we break below 5131??
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #336,119
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:13am Feb 21, 2013 5:13am
Quoting albchr
I don't use indicators so I don't really understand them but, wouldn't that be a bullish divergence?

Do you use an MT4 platform?
No, it's bearish. A higher high with the oscillator not matched by price is (theoretically) bearish.

Quick guide attached. Current situation seen on bottom right picture. As it happens, cable reacted well off bullish divergence this morning (top left picture).

But indicators lag and should only be used as a reinforcement of price action. I'm sure many would argue they shouldn't be used at all.

Don't use MT4, no.

EDIT: Though blobsaudio could well be right and I've misjudged from where to draw the divergence comparison line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: divergenceguide.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #336,120
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:20am Feb 21, 2013 5:20am
Quoting albchr
I don't use indicators so I don't really understand them but, wouldn't that be a bullish divergence?

Do you use an MT4 platform?
I'm a bit rusty as haven't used divergences in any meaningful way for quite a while now, but I think whatever the rules are for a biase on typical divergence (eg higher high price, lower high indicator = bearish),
just flip the rules around for hidden divergence (ie. lower high price, higher high indicator = bearish).

I think
Come with me if you want to live....
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