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EUR/CHF

  • #10,241
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:18am Feb 7, 2013 5:18am
I can't see any good news out of the EZB meeting this afternoon which will effect EURCHF to the upper side...
  • #10,242
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:57am Feb 7, 2013 5:57am
currency reserve of SNB.....
  • #10,243
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:21am Feb 7, 2013 6:21am
Quoting matheousse
currency reserve of SNB.....

At lest now we know that SNB were not selling into this rally. Good news in a way..
  • #10,244
  • Feb 7, 2013 7:42am Feb 7, 2013 7:42am
Quoting lexazver
At lest now we know that SNB were not selling into this rally. Good news in a way..
And we also know it was not their intervention...
  • #10,245
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:13am Feb 7, 2013 8:13am
Quoting lexazver
At lest now we know that SNB were not selling into this rally. Good news in a way..
Yes, good news indeed... SNB still holding.
ECB news conference underway now - a slight drop seen.

Just how long do you think SNB will hold their foreign reserves? When will they sell? When everything stabilises? or when it hits 1.30?
  • #10,246
  • Edited 8:41am Feb 7, 2013 8:20am | Edited 8:41am
Watching ECB conference, again I'm not an economist or an optimist, but I personally think...

Draghi: Eurozone weakness to prevail in early 2013 - expected & will prevail the entire 2013 I think.
Draghi: LTRO repayments reflect improved confidence - not for long.
Draghi: Euro appreciation is a sign of return of confidence - again not for long - hey EURUSD dropped while Draghi speaks to 1 week low.
Draghi: Credit remains challenging - yes & will prolong.
Draghi: No further easing - no comment, but I think should be good for now.
Draghi: Governing council hasn’t changed position on negative rates since last month - expected.
Draghi: Economic activity should gradually recover in 2013 - I really hope it could, but I feel if it hasn't hit rock bottom, any recovery is temporary and not strong.

Remember last month's post ECB speech when EURCHF shot up?
This month's mood seems to be sombre.
  • #10,247
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:46am Feb 8, 2013 8:46am
Finally, some opinion on a possible downturn of EURCHF..

HSBC research team's view :
"the risk-reward of being long is quite different at 1.2500 than at 1.2050, thus should risk appetite falter, there is scope for some fresh CHF strength before the SNB needs to step back into the market with FX intervention."

"It is also not yet clear the global environment has improved sufficiently to encourage Swiss banks and corporates to invest aggressively once again overseas. The mistake would be to assume that this merely heralds the start of a long-running uptrend. In fact, we face quite the reverse. The rally in EUR-CHF merely opens the door for a fresh drop should conditions warrant it."

I'm just waiting to reload long...
  • #10,248
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:49am Feb 10, 2013 3:49am
eur chf

pattern: bat

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/...0489691591.gif
  • #10,249
  • Feb 11, 2013 5:17am Feb 11, 2013 5:17am
1.2250 level was saved...do you think it will go to above 1.25 again?

i hope!
  • #10,250
  • Feb 11, 2013 8:49am Feb 11, 2013 8:49am
Quoting daka
1.2250 level was saved...do you think it will go to above 1.25 again?

i hope!

Jordan speaks tomorrow, there might be a move up.
  • #10,251
  • Feb 11, 2013 11:50pm Feb 11, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting rcrist
Jordan speaks tomorrow, there might be a move up.
You mean the bonds issue?

His other speech is on the 19th "Strong franc and high current account surplus: a contradiction"

Yes, there might be a move up, maybe temporary. Perhaps Jordan will hint on when SNB will start unloading their EURs.
  • #10,252
  • Feb 12, 2013 12:22am Feb 12, 2013 12:22am
GMT 08:15
CHF
CPI m/m

-0.3% -0.2%






































































GMT 10:00
CHF
SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
  • #10,253
  • Feb 12, 2013 3:30am Feb 12, 2013 3:30am
Quoting alaneth
You mean the bonds issue?

His other speech is on the 19th "Strong franc and high current account surplus: a contradiction"

Yes, there might be a move up, maybe temporary. Perhaps Jordan will hint on when SNB will start unloading their EURs.

It is on forexfactory calendar, according to this he is going to speak in 30 minutes. Maybe it is their mistake.
  • #10,254
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:41am Feb 12, 2013 4:41am
Quoting rcrist
It is on forexfactory calendar, according to this he is going to speak in 30 minutes. Maybe it is their mistake.
So he indeed spoke - 40 pips up
  • #10,255
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:44am Feb 12, 2013 4:44am
what did he say ?
  • #10,256
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:46am Feb 12, 2013 4:46am
SNB Jordan Speech

Written by Ryan Littlestone
February 12, 2013 at 10:41 GMT

 

  1. No immediate inflation risk.
  2. Deflation damage to the economy can be limited
  3. The peg remains firm policy
  4. Expects Franc to keep weakening

  • #10,257
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:55am Feb 12, 2013 4:55am
Quoting daka
SNB Jordan Speech

Written by Ryan Littlestone
February 12, 2013 at 10:41 GMT

 

  1. No immediate inflation risk.
  2. Deflation damage to the economy can be limited
  3. The peg remains firm policy
  4. Expects Franc to keep weakening


So we can continue trading the peg
  • #10,258
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:58am Feb 12, 2013 9:58am
Yes, Jordan spoke indeed.
What he says is true, today. Draghi also just spoke.
If both are correct, EUR will continue to strenghthen & CHF will continue to weaken...
...and the peg long game is still on.
  • #10,259
  • Feb 20, 2013 6:45am Feb 20, 2013 6:45am
No entries for the last 8 days!
How very boring this pair is......

But do you notice SNB's Sight Deposit increased last week? may be insignificant, but I'm patiently waiting to reload.
  • #10,260
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:43am Feb 20, 2013 7:43am
yes indeed, it is boring...

http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/stat/sta...b_impdata_hist

i have seen a shift from sight deposits into giro for about CHF 5 mrd.

Average of sight deposits in Swiss francs at the SNB for the week ending 8 February 2013
(in CHF millions)
Sight deposits of domestic banks 280 226
Other deposits on sight in Swiss francs 89 839
Total sight deposits in Swiss francs at the SNB 370 065

Average of sight deposits in Swiss francs at the SNB for the week ending 15 February 2013
(in CHF millions)
Sight deposits of domestic banks 285 025
Other deposits on sight in Swiss francs 85 242
Total sight deposits in Swiss francs at the SNB 370 267

What is the reason for that shift?
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