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Building an equity millipede

  • #5,701
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:12am Feb 17, 2013 11:12am
Starry. I'd have to strongly agree with you on that point. The market is more about traders trading traders than anything else. There's a reason why for example so many good levels are revisited...

But conflicts of opinion are also what the market is about so I am of course not attacking you
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,702
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:15am Feb 17, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Calculus
Starry. I'd have to strongly agree with you on that point. The market is more about traders trading traders than anything else. There's a reason why so many good levels are revisited...

But conflicts of opinion are also what the market is about so I am of course not attacking you
hey no problem heres a euraud chart, i know explanation is easy, especially when you can see the future, but its cool that harmonics can explain things. as you can, see there was a confluence right above those bars....

i havent yet mastered this or i would be having a positive equity curve with all my explanations but im very close, i just thought of the extension + confluence explanation this weekend, it makes it click for me its becoming much clearer....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,703
  • Edited 12:12pm Feb 17, 2013 11:54am | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting Calculus
Remember folks, 'extended' is not normally enough. The boys know that many market participants are saying 'hey this is possibly extended so let's try to get short'. But the boys don't want the majority on board. So they entice people in and THEN they try to force them out. If they can do that not only do they steal everyone's position they then force them back into the market to fuel the move.

Text book example last Friday, 60m EUR-AUD. See how they forced many to get long on the break of all those 240m inside bars, then the smackdown,...
Hey Calc, I am aware of the games the big boys play on the liquidity front.... just trying to understand if my theory is aligned with yours ?? Could you look at my GBPNZD long entry at 1.8169 in the chat I posted earlier? I always try to get in first and i got in thinking the boys are done with their move (i.e. taking out all the short directional trend followers).


EDIT: the exact same scenario happened on E/J last year when price broke down to historical lows so trying to replicate what I did on my demo with E/J (R&D on Demo first and implement it in live :- )
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,704
  • Feb 17, 2013 2:45pm Feb 17, 2013 2:45pm
Hello Veefx,
In a previous post you wrote:

“Also / A little off-topic but I don't hear anyone talk about 'hourly' returns from trading yet we have folks trading for 10-15 hours starring at charts! “

No, you were not off-topic. It is THE TOPIC and, after everything is said and done, the only thing that matters is exactly that. It might not necessarily be an hourly income, as you put it, but the bottom line is always achieving a certain consistent monetary gain; be it hourly, weekly, monthly or else. It's all about how much one values his time spent trading ( Opportunity Cost in the financial jargon.)
But you'll notice that a lot of people will avoid that subject and brush it off as fast as they could (for reasons that vary from one individual to another.)
Any market is made up of a lot of variables and a few constants ( or controllable variables that need to be made into constants within the strategy) and one needs to define his targets/goals (no matter their nature) very accurately. Markets have always been a game of hard numbers since the beginning of time and ignoring that is pure denial.
How could one determine success or failure without making them measurable in time periods against some accurately predefined references?
After 6 months of trading, two people that started out with exactly the same capital and ended up with the same exact results will react differently to the outcome depending on the big picture they set up for themselves for the years to come, if any.
One can easily spend years, if not decades, debating some of the infinite number of variables that make up an equation we call the market. It might be of interest to some to write down the big plan first, set up a few constants, follow a very rigorous budgeting process for the various trading requirements and know, for the years to come, what the maximum overhead will be even if only a small portion of it is available today. Then the technicalities kick in which are, in their most basic form, either adding to a winner or adding to a loser with the time factor being of essence. I believe that a strategy is only good if it can profit in any extended market condition because of its flexibility (no sudden big change in exposure.) What is a trend to you might be a range to me from my own perspective. Time might not be an issue to you but it might be to me. And that is why the big plan is so important: It makes success and failure measurable and saves us from asking other people questions we could answer ourselves with perfect accuracy.

Cheers
"For Sale: Baby Shoes. Never worn." Ernest Hemingway
  • #5,705
  • Feb 17, 2013 5:05pm Feb 17, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting Starry
hey no problem heres a euraud chart, i know explanation is easy, especially when you can see the future, but its cool that harmonics can explain things. as you can, see there was a confluence right above those bars....
Hi Starry,

Actually... sometimes I see elephants on the charts in the way candles shape up. I place trades when I see elephants, and sometimes my trades work, that leads me to believe that when elephants show up on my charts it is a good setup. I might even be slightly profitable with the right money management strategy. That is no different than your harmonics friend.

Besides elephants, I also believe that the financial institutions (who understand and influence how order flow works) trade with the retail traders (who believe in shapes, candles, fibonacci), and 95% of retail traders lose money, whilst institutions keep making hundreds of millions daily. So you have a choice in continuing to believe in shapes, or in studying more about order flow and how the market structure works.

Regards,

Cam
  • #5,706
  • Edited 6:22pm Feb 17, 2013 5:28pm | Edited 6:22pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Starry,

Actually... sometimes I see elephants on the charts in the way candles shape up. I place trades when I see elephants, and sometimes my trades work, that leads me to believe that when elephants show up on my charts it is a good setup. I might even be slightly profitable with the right money management strategy. That is no different than your harmonics friend.

Besides elephants, I also believe that the financial institutions (who understand and influence how order flow works) trade with the retail traders (who believe in shapes, candles,...
what are elephants but its not about belief , if it works it works ..... ill let you know how its going in 2 or 3 months ....
  • #5,707
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:38am Feb 18, 2013 8:38am
Quoting Calculus
Psychological pressures

I’m sure others have struggled with the fear or being wrong so I’d really appreciate it if some members would post some ideas, tips, tricks, mental strategies they have found useful so I can try and beat this demon. Thanks.
I have not posted in this thread for a long time now, but have kept subscribed and found it of interest again, although not necessarily in agreement!

On the psych prob Calculus, took me years until I remembered when I used to go to the casinos and race-course - I knew I was not likely to win much - if at all - and therefore expected to lose the money I took which was always a set amount per race/spin, i.e. my stop loss.
As it happened I rarely lost, but mostly broke even.

I now trade the same way - and assume on opening a position it will lose - it is already losing as soon as you open it.

I can now be thousands in the hole and still sleep easy.

On another note, and something some seem to have forgotten - when Graham started to give demonstrations of his trading methods on the lower TFs there was an occasion where he had started to stack and was 3 or 4 trades into it when the 5/10 emas crossed over - he closed all positions for a good profit - anticipating a pull back to his first position. So whilst numerous legs of a millipede are the 'mission statement' of his method, common sense should prevail at all times and letting profitable legs disappear may not be the wisest thing to do - you can always close and then re-load on a new break-out.

And yet another note: those that know me - know that I predominantly leave my trading to my own EAs and I have been toying with the attached for a while now - not just as a training aid - running on historical data, (e.g. 3x20 exercise), but as a live trading model - with just a mouse move, largely because of my disastrous Broadband speed of 0.5 mbps in the UK; I anticipate generating full stats on screen and in a csv file for excel input. Still in testing, but would appreciate any comments.

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/201...piwu-221kb.jpg
  • #5,708
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:45am Feb 18, 2013 8:45am
Quoting VEEFX
Hey Calc, I am aware of the games the big boys play on the liquidity front.... just trying to understand if my theory is aligned with yours ?? Could you look at my GBPNZD long entry at 1.8169 in the chat I posted earlier? I always try to get in first and i got in thinking the boys are done with their move (i.e. taking out all the short directional trend followers).
Vee. I see the GBP-NZD trade you've been looking at and it looks like you're getting my point. Here are my thoughts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boys.png Size: 52 KB
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,709
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:50am Feb 18, 2013 8:50am
Quoting traderray
I now trade the same way - and assume on opening a position it will lose - it is already losing as soon as you open it.
Nice on Ray, thanks.

And yes, I remember well when G stacked many times on a good move then covered some to help pay the bill of past probe losses.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,710
  • Feb 18, 2013 8:54am Feb 18, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Calculus
Vee. I see the GBP-NZD trade you've been looking at and it looks like you're getting my point. Here are my thoughts.

Attachment

Hi Calculus,


Very impressive stuff you posted, totally agreed. Keep up the nice work !!!


rgds
winwin
  • #5,711
  • Feb 18, 2013 9:40am Feb 18, 2013 9:40am
Thanks Wx2.

On that GBP-NZD chart I just posted, can anyone spot the boys at play again, AFTER the low (around 1.8150) because there's another trick in their playbook being played.

You'll get a point for being correct and as everyone should know, points mean prizes
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,712
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:04am Feb 18, 2013 10:04am
Quoting Calculus
Thanks Wx2.

On that GBP-NZD chart I just posted, can anyone spot the boys at play again, AFTER the low (around 1.8150) because there's another trick in their playbook being played.

You'll get a point for being correct and as everyone should know, points mean prizes
here's my view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1091.jpg Size: 69 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,713
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:15am Feb 18, 2013 10:15am
Quoting traderray
I have not posted in this thread for a long time now, but have kept subscribed and found it of interest again, although not necessarily in agreement!

he closed all positions for a good profit - anticipating a pull back to his first position. So whilst numerous legs of a millipede are the 'mission statement' of his method, common sense should prevail at all times and letting profitable legs disappear may not be the wisest thing to do - you can always close and then re-load on a new break-out.
Hey Ray,

Where have you been pal ?? Glad you are still with us. What you posted is exactly what I am doing... taking short term profits from stacking (although too aggressive for some!) and use them as down-payment to build long term millipedes. It really helps me keep my sanity knowing that I am only going to loose what I have earned (instead of losing first, then keep track of lost pip counter, get bogged down in all the accounting stuff and then let the legs run risk free towards infinite yield). With this approach, my probes also become risk-free as long as I have realized profits banked for future growth :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,714
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:18am Feb 18, 2013 10:18am
Vee get's the prize!

Some call a bar like this a 'scary' bar and it often happens after price has made a low and is starting to recover. Never forget that the boys don't want you onboard (they want you later to help fuel the move) so they SMASH price down, hard and fast, that's the scary bar. BUT, the bar never usually takes any important level out. Also, if there are now a few more buyers than sellers in the market, price either stalls or better yet, recovers fast and hard as it did in this GBP-NZD example.

So the scary bar is designed to get the weak longs to panic - 'oh no, price is going back down through the lows, hit the sell button'.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,715
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:29am Feb 18, 2013 10:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scary.png Size: 46 KB
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #5,716
  • Feb 19, 2013 5:28am Feb 19, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Calculus
Vee get's the prize!

Some call a bar like this a 'scary' bar and it often happens after price has made a low and is starting to recover. Never forget that the boys don't want you onboard (they want you later to help fuel the move) so they SMASH price down, hard and fast, that's the scary bar. BUT, the bar never usually takes any important level out. Also, if there are now a few more buyers than sellers in the market, price either stalls or better yet, recovers fast and hard as it did in this GBP-NZD example.

So the scary bar is designed to...
Hi Calc - re psych thing - I just KNOW that if I have a losing trade I am closer to a win!

Not wishing to detract from your on-going discussion on these 'stalling phases' - those wishing for a deeper analysis may like to read Informed Trades on the subject - http://www.informedtrades.com/blogs/...tribution.html

I would suggest tracking through all the X_refed sites.

I read this in one of Wyckoff's books some years ago and although it relates to Stocks etc. it is just as valid for fx and a clear indication of 'smart money' motives!

Quoting VEEFX
Hey Ray,

Where have you been pal ?? Glad you are still with us. What you posted is exactly what I am doing... taking short term profits from stacking (although too aggressive for some!) and use them as down-payment to build long term millipedes. It really helps me keep my sanity knowing that I am only going to loose what I have earned (instead of losing first, .......:-
Thanks Vee - as I said I have essentially been stalking you here and glad to se your results. Just wondering - You were the one person that G selected as a guinea pig, are you the only one profiting from it. Few others make comments on this.

Was thinking of sending you a copy of the EA and indicators, but you seem to have made progress yourself. Will send you a list of objectives though - perhaps you can add your thoughts. Am hoping to put something on YouTube for FX training.

Cheers
  • #5,717
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:56am Feb 19, 2013 6:56am
Quoting traderray
Thanks Vee - as I said I have essentially been stalking you here and glad to se your results. Just wondering - You were the one person that G selected as a guinea pig, are you the only one profiting from it. Few others make comments on this.

Was thinking of sending you a copy of the EA and indicators, but you seem to have made progress yourself. Will send you a list of objectives though - perhaps you can add your thoughts. Am hoping to put something on YouTube for FX training.

Cheers
guinea pig.... There wasn't much of a selection. I just got lucky to be the first to reply when G asked for a volunteer :- I am far from considering myself to be profitable but things are certainly looking better after 2.5+ yrs of commitment. I am certain I am not alone in this journey.

I would love to see what you have and add my thoughts. You know how to reach me.


EDIT: And frankly, that 200ema project I participated was my most frustrating experience but learnt a lot though that process. One can learn a ton just by looking at moving averages. Markets are not random when it makes a directional move (even on Tick charts !)
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,718
  • Feb 19, 2013 1:31pm Feb 19, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting VEEFX
here's my view:
It's happening just like I said. Let's see how this plays out :-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1092.jpg Size: 45 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,719
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:00pm Feb 19, 2013 9:00pm
hi Vee,

that's amazing!

so your longs are taken out in this case? and when & how are you going to re-enter? i am very keen in learning stacking techniques combined with some PASR entry methods. Greatly appreciate your helps.

Regards,
zxd
  • #5,720
  • Edited 4:43am Feb 20, 2013 1:30am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting VEEFX
It's happening just like I said. Let's see how this plays out :-
Nice Call Vee - looking at EurGB for something similar, may be a tad early!
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