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JPY Cross Pairs

  • #181
  • Feb 10, 2013 2:11pm Feb 10, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Just want to say, I have been browsing this thread for a bit and I really like it. I am long EJ and GJ... TP for EJ is the same as yours, skyzer.

GJ I have at 61.8 fib from the 2008 downtrend which is at 169.154. I see the recent pullback as a corrective one and of course because of Aso comments. I am a buy and hold investor more than a day trader or swing trader. I have very large TP's and very wide SL's... These pairs have lost half their value since 08 and people think this move up is too rapid


[b]Oh and I am looking at UJ longs...
Hi BobGnarly,

Noticed you are a position trader, must be a patient man!

Curious though, you mentioned that you are looking at UJ longs tonight? Were you long on U/J or any other JPY cross pair since this new uptrend has formed roughly 3 months ago? If so, why aren't you still holding your long positions? Just curious as you mentioned you are a position trader...
  • #182
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:18pm Feb 10, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi BobGnarly,

Noticed you are a position trader, must be a patient man!

Curious though, you mentioned that you are looking at UJ longs tonight? Were you long on U/J or any other JPY cross pair since this new uptrend has formed roughly 3 months ago? If so, why aren't you still holding your long positions? Just curious as you mentioned you are a position trader...


Love the thread , pips! I am very patient

I am long UJ @90.54
GJ @ 145.25
EJ at 124.30
EU @ 1.3380
Short @au at 1.0313


I am looking @ adding to some longs
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  • #183
  • Feb 10, 2013 3:50pm Feb 10, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Love the thread , pips! I am very patient

I am long UJ @90.54
GJ @ 145.25
EJ at 124.30
EU @ 1.3380
Short @au at 1.0313


I am looking @ adding to some longs
Hey Bob!

Glad you're with us. Looks like you've got some good trades for the mid to long term!
  • #184
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:23pm Feb 10, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
For USD/JPY I've got 88.32 on my radar for possible resistance turned support assuming we get some sort of meaningful correction before moving higher.
2 things..

1) If Market would continue to go up, we might not see a correction, as YEN usually risk-off trade.

2) To have a meaningful correction, YEN should have some buyers..

Who the heck would be a buyer? So far YEN opens strong.. Monday down day (risk-off) most of the time lately

We'll see.

Thanks
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  • #185
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:31pm Feb 10, 2013 4:31pm
I believe Japan Market closed on Monday

11 (Mon)
National Foundation Day (national holiday)

Correct me if I'm wrong..
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  • #186
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:34pm Feb 10, 2013 4:34pm
the first 30 minutes usd/jpy looks like the wounded cow, I do not want to be wrong, but it seems that someone uses low liquidity to throw a cow from a rock. prepare for beast ride down, i think mind. to 1 am GMT, I am sure will be 92 is lost in short time.
  • #187
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:35pm Feb 10, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I believe Japan Market closed on Monday

11 (Mon)
National Foundation Day (national holiday)

Correct me if I'm wrong..
Forex Factory is showing that today is a Bank holiday in Japan so yes Japan market is closed
  • #188
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:50pm Feb 10, 2013 4:50pm
"Investors dive into euro-yen policy gap"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd7f5adc-7...#axzz2KXUtZJ00
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  • #189
  • Feb 10, 2013 4:54pm Feb 10, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
"Investors dive into euro-yen policy gap"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd7f5adc-7...#axzz2KXUtZJ00
SkyzerFX we miss you in eurusd thread
  • #190
  • Feb 10, 2013 5:06pm Feb 10, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
"Investors dive into euro-yen policy gap"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd7f5adc-7...#axzz2KXUtZJ00
Investors Dive Into Euro-Yen Policy Gap
By Alice Ross, Currencies Correspondent

Currency investors are profiting from an emerging policy divide between Europe and Japan that some believe has the makings of a fresh round of global currency wars.

Buying the euro and selling the yen has become one of the most popular trades in the foreign exchange market, with currency traders including hedge funds more bullish on the euro than at any time since July 2011.

The euro last week hit its strongest level against the Japanese yen since the start of the eurozone crisis as investors have flocked back to eurozone assets and sold the Japanese currency. The single currency rose to more than Y127, its strongest level since April 2010.

"Buying the euro and selling the yen is one of the most popular trades in the market as, on the one side, we are seeing a return of investors to Europe and, on the other side, Japan is so keen on seeing a further currency depreciation. We will keep this position until we see any sign of strong criticism from other major economies,” said James Kwok, head of currency management at Amundi.

An index due to be published this week by Parker Global will show that bets the euro would rise and the yen fall helped currency investors to see their best month in January since April 2011, with returns of 1.42 per cent.

Figures from the US Commodity Futures Trade Commission show net long positions on the euro rose to a 19-month high last week.

“Currency wars have been the most powerful driver of the currency markets since mid-November,” said Stephen Jen, head of currency hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners.

Investors have been selling the yen in the belief that an incoming governor at the Bank of Japan will step up the central bank’s efforts to combat deflation and potentially embark on non-orthodox policy measures such as buying foreign bonds to help weaken the yen further.

By contrast, the European Central Bank is shrinking its monetary base as banks repay short-term loans made at the height of the eurozone crisis.

“I think the market is going to put euro yen under the microscope,” says Bob Savage at FX Concepts, the currency hedge fund.

The rapid pace of the currency moves has alarmed policy makers in Europe and led to caution from government officials in Japan. The euro has risen nearly 9 per cent against the yen this year, outstripping its gains against the dollar of just over 1 per cent.

The recent fall in the value of the yen is expected to be a main topic at this week’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow. Japanese officials have sought to downplay accusations that they have been actively engaging in competitive devaluation of their currency. In what was seen as a carefully timed comment ahead of the summit, Japan’s finance minister was reported last week saying that the fall in the yen might have gone too far, sparking a rise in the value of the Japanese currency.

Meanwhile, some analysts are urging caution on the euro after what many see as verbal intervention by Mario Draghi, ECB president, who said on Thursday that the euro’s strength could hamper the economic recovery of the eurozone. The comments sparked speculation the ECB could cut interest rates if the euro continued to gain in value.
  • #191
  • Feb 10, 2013 5:45pm Feb 10, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting SnaveForex
SkyzerFX we miss you in eurusd thread
Hey man, Thanks guys, For now I'm piling into JPY short, but I'd LONG EURUSD,

Bernank printing 1 trillion per year, I wouldn't bet on USD at all.
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  • #192
  • Feb 10, 2013 6:07pm Feb 10, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Love the thread , pips! I am very patient

I am long UJ @90.54
GJ @ 145.25
EJ at 124.30
EU @ 1.3380
Short @au at 1.0313


I am looking @ adding to some longs
4 pairs are already in the red.Holding on to losers and hoping they bounce back is not smart trading.Being patient should not be confused with reckless.You are selling AU right at bottom support.
Just makes no sense to me.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #193
  • Feb 10, 2013 6:10pm Feb 10, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting Davit
4 pairs are already in the red.Holding on to losers and hoping they bounce back is not smart trading.Being patient should not be confused with reckless.You are selling AU right at bottom support.
Just makes no sense to me.
Regards

It's my method..


And they are all winners except EJ and AU... Au will hit 1.016... have you seen the monthly set up on AU? it is targeting lower support. I dont day trade so yes there are periods where I'm holding losers and it doesn't bother me. Thanks tho


It already made a higher low for the day.
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  • #194
  • Feb 10, 2013 6:15pm Feb 10, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting BobGnarly
It's my method..


And they are all winners except EJ and AU... Au will hit 1.016... have you seen the monthly set up on AU? it is targeting lower support. I dont day trade so yes there are periods where I'm holding losers and it doesn't bother me. Thanks tho


It already made a higher low for the day.
Hi Bob
Didn't mean to be negative.Obviously you know what you are doing.
Good trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #195
  • Feb 10, 2013 6:18pm Feb 10, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Bob
Didn't mean to be negative.Obviously you know what you are doing.
Good trading.

No worries
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  • #196
  • Feb 10, 2013 6:56pm Feb 10, 2013 6:56pm
Ok after reviewing weekly chart patterns from the previous week I see that we have a Spinning Top on USD/JPY which means there is indecision between the bulls and the bears. After a long advance or "uptrend" a spinning top indicates weakness among the bulls and a potential change or interruption in the current trend.

I highlighted my target area of 88.32 assuming USD/JPY gets some sort of pullback.

Notice the confluence of that area:
*Significant S/R level when looking at the Weekly chart
* 250 EMA (weekly chart) is exactly on the 88.32 line
* Weekly Spinning Top candle represents Indecision. Also, after a long uptrend it could indicate a potential change OR interruption in the current trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_-_Weekly_(2-10).jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #197
  • Feb 10, 2013 7:15pm Feb 10, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
* Weekly Spinning Top candle represents Indecision. Also, after a long uptrend it could indicate a potential change OR interruption in the current trend
Technically maybe, but your statement suggests that Japanese will change their Policy now and welcome deflation again,

for another 10 years? G20 meeting soon indeed for now uptrend probably paused, but it doesn't mean Yen should just drop back

where it came from.. USDJPY 88 + Unreal, unless we'll see DOW drop 500-700 points.. IMHO..
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  • #198
  • Feb 10, 2013 7:21pm Feb 10, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Technically maybe, but your statement suggests that Japanese will change their Policy now and welcome deflation again,

for another 10 years? G20 meeting soon for now uptrend probably paused, but it doesn't mean Yen should just drop back

where it came from.. USDJPY 88 + Unreal, unless we'll see DOW drop 500-700 points.. IMHO..
A 400 pip correction after a strong uptrend DOES NOT mean a change in monetary policy. A simple "slip of the tongue" by the BOJ or a rumor could do that in 1-2 days time. How about this particular statement: Japan’s finance minister was reported last week saying that the fall in the yen might have gone too far, sparking a rise in the value of the Japanese currency. You're telling me that a 400 pip correction is out of the question and will send them back into deflation for another 10 years? That is ludicrous to even think such a thought!

USD/JPY needs to form a new "higher low" from a weekly perspective...

Just look at what happened last Thursday when Mr. Draghi opened up his mouth...EUR/USD candle - 200 pip drop in one day.
  • #199
  • Feb 10, 2013 7:28pm Feb 10, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting 100PipsADay

Just look at what happened last Thursday when Mr. Draghi opened up his mouth...EUR/USD candle - 200 pip drop in one day.
And thanks Draghi for that, cause smart money now Long EUR target 1.40 now. Jawboning never worked longer then 2-3 days.

Anyways, we'll see. it's always 50/50 + depends on the TF sometimes both wrong or both right in different TF.

It could drop 50 pips today and rise 150 pips tomorrow.. Who knows?.. If I knew I'd bet my house on..
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  • #200
  • Feb 10, 2013 7:37pm Feb 10, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
And thanks Draghi for that, cause smart money now Long EUR target 1.40 now. Jawboning never worked longer then 2-3 days.

Anyways, we'll see. it's always 50/50 + depends on the TF sometimes both wrong or both right in different TF.

It could drop 50 pips today and rise 150 pips tomorrow.. Who knows?.. If I knew I'd bet my house on..
Exactly my point. Smart money may want a better price to buy USD/JPY.

You're right, nobody knows exactly what will happen, just taking all of the information given to us and making an educated decision based on what is available to us at that particular time.
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