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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #65,721
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:23pm Feb 7, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting chodd22
PT, I'm playing in that pair currently. I locked it up today as I was thinking the same but that mid 1.31xx area has some solid resistance on the weekly and it hit pretty hard.

If this Euro continues to play out a weakness should continue on all crosses...even with all the AUD weak press.
That's a big if at this point. If anything I see the Euro entering a phase of sideways consolidation. The europhoria has certainly come to an end, but unless we get a rate cut or some really bad news (or perhaps a drop in US unemployment), it's not going down too far for now. I think maybe at best the E/U may reach 1.31xx but I'm willing to bet we won't break 1.3245 support.

Anyway, I hope I'm wrong about that coz there's nothing I would love more than to see the E/U at 1.22 again
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,722
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:53pm Feb 7, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's a big if at this point. If anything I see the Euro entering a phase of sideways consolidation. The europhoria has certainly come to an end, but unless we get a rate cut or some really bad news (or perhaps a drop in US unemployment), it's not going down too far for now. I think maybe at best the E/U may reach 1.31xx but I'm willing to bet we won't break 1.3245 support.

Anyway, I hope I'm wrong about that coz there's nothing I would love more than to see the E/U at 1.22 again
bears... in this thread... again...
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #65,723
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:01pm Feb 7, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Vtmn
bears... in this thread... again...
Yep. The penguin woke them up...

http://images2.layoutsparks.com/1/28...snow-white.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,724
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:29pm Feb 7, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. The penguin woke them up...

http://images2.layoutsparks.com/1/28...snow-white.jpg
so you longs breakeven now ?
Quoting ingmarforex
OOh my god
or you closed them

Just curious if you start shorting pls do let me know highly apreciated
  • #65,725
  • Feb 7, 2013 4:32pm Feb 7, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't give up hope yet. The EUR/AUD has confirmed an inverted H/S pattern and the target is in the 1.40xx region.
I will be looking to take a long on either a retest of the neckline or a break of the top.

E/A Weekly:
Attachment

The alternative is that this is an ABCD correction, in which case the target would be the 100 FE at 1.3376
Notice how today price found support at the 61.8 FE

Attachment
Still holding all of my E/A longs. Just was hoping for a nice breakout today. Oh well.... Maybe next week
  • #65,726
  • Feb 7, 2013 5:03pm Feb 7, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong about that coz there's nothing I would love more than to see the E/U at 1.22 again
You and me both brother!

I don't like looking at my drawdown so its been locked up.

Lets be honest here...its been way over bought in that short a time frame in my opinion. This drop was more likely to happen than not to happen. Especially after all the smart money already hit their short term targets, they were out. Draghi didn't even say much to make this sized drop happen like it did, so it just confirmed it was due.

There was a possible 'what if' in play depending on what Draghi would say so all watched the news conference. Bad news will continue out of the EU, so even if it does consolidate, its short term. Again, a laman's opinion.

You and I talked about this weeks ago. The high Euro is an economy killer. That spike would've been additional pressure on their economy, regardless of bond improvements.

The moment he didn't offer any meat...bam
  • #65,727
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:11am Feb 8, 2013 12:11am
Quoting ingmarforex
so you longs breakeven now ?
or you closed them

Just curious if you start shorting pls do let me know highly apreciated
I took partial profit (60%) on them many pips ago. The remaining positions are still on and locked at BE except for the 3380 position which got stopped out yesterday. I have no immediate plans to take on any fresh positions as I want to see how the market reacts today. Yesterday after we hit bottom, volume evaporated from the market... it's as if everyone ran to hide behind a rock. There was absolutely no attempt to buy back in at all after such a large move. Basically the longs got squeezed and I think there is more to come. Maybe we test 3245 today, but first we have to get through 3310.

If the move down yesterday was just a correction, it's not over yet. If it was an impulse move into a reversal, then we need a small correction to the upside before we continue downwards.

As such, my remaining partial longs at 3360 and 3370 will stay locked at BE, and if they get taken out, I will remain flat until I see a signal to take a trade either way. So far I have no signals.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,728
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:14am Feb 8, 2013 12:14am
Preety nasty drop yesterday. Price range is now extended. I need to work hard to find a good entry point now.
  • #65,729
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:15am Feb 8, 2013 12:15am
Quoting chodd22
You and me both brother!

I don't like looking at my drawdown so its been locked up.

Lets be honest here...its been way over bought in that short a time frame in my opinion. This drop was more likely to happen than not to happen. Especially after all the smart money already hit their short term targets, they were out. Draghi didn't even say much to make this sized drop happen like it did, so it just confirmed it was due.

There was a possible 'what if' in play depending on what Draghi would say so all watched the news conference. Bad news will continue out of the EU, so even if it does consolidate, its short term. Again, a laman's opinion.

You and I talked about this weeks ago. The high Euro is an economy killer. That spike would've been additional pressure on their economy, regardless of bond improvements.

The moment he didn't offer any meat...bam
...and that's basically it. The markets were looking for some hawkish comments and they already had them priced in. When they didn't get them... as you said; "BAM"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,730
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:18am Feb 8, 2013 12:18am
Quoting rekon67
Preety nasty drop yesterday. Price range is now extended. I need to work hard to find a good entry point now.
Let me know when you find one. I'm hoping for a correction to 3485/3510 so I can short this, but that may be wishful thinking. Time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,731
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:25am Feb 8, 2013 12:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Let me know when you find one. I'm hoping for a correction to 35xx so I can short this, but that may be wishful thinking. Time will tell.
I think News reaction will play a bit more and E/U price will be sinking till EU summit is over for the month, some more volatility will place it below 1.32 level for Feb-13.
  • #65,732
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:50am Feb 8, 2013 1:50am
PT...good to have back with your analysis...missed u man!
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #65,733
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:52am Feb 8, 2013 1:52am
Quoting ohenry
PT...good to have back with your analysis...missed u man!
I'm on holidays Henry, but I'll be back in full force in March.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,734
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:56am Feb 8, 2013 1:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm on holidays Henry, but I'll be back in full force in March.
OMG
69
  • #65,735
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:07am Feb 8, 2013 2:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm on holidays Henry, but I'll be back in full force in March.
You must enjoy it....hopefully come next month this ol' skank will be ready to lift her skirt for us...& give us some real pips...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #65,736
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:15am Feb 8, 2013 2:15am
Good morning all,

here's my update view on the Euro FX currency futures (4-hour chart). I have also recorded a video to explain yesterday's PA.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_4-hour_chart_20130208.png Size: 67 KB




The Euro traded the 1.3580 area of resistance and short entry on the daily chart bringing price down into it's first target into 1.3410 area.

This 4-hour daily short played breaking the weekly extension long. Price could now continue in extensions into the 1.3200 area of support.

In my last analysis and video, I considered fascinating that two programs have been trading one against the other in yesterday's market session. The first program on the weekly timeframe offering support at the 1.3460 area (participation was confirmed on Tuesday, at this level, so it was valid); and the second program, on the daily timeframe, opposing resistance at the 1.3580 area (Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning) which then broke the weekly setup. Yesterday the bears won the battle and the 1.3580 resistance hit its first target area at 1.3410.


We now have a closer level of support at 1.3360 which I don’t fully trust and I will not consider as a potential area where price could turn around. The next important support area and long entry, if confirmed, is down around 1.3200 and it is originated on the daily timeframe. The other area of support, originated on the weekly timeframe, is at around 1.2900.


On the 4-hour chart the market is moving lower in extension measured moves with resistances at 1.3430 and 1.3410-15 at the moment. The lower resistance at 1.3415 has traded during the Asian session and may trade again during the EU morning. Above 1.3451 price can test the short resistance areas (see below) and come back down again. If the sequence of measured moves lower continues and then interrupts around 1.3200 I will consider that as the next support area for a continuation higher.

The following 2 scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1. Price is trading the next extension short in the 1.3410-15 area with targets below at 1.3360 and then 1.3325-30. If this scenario plays out we could see a continuation with a small bounce in the 1.3270 region and then a move into 1.3200.

Scenario 2. Above 1.3451 there is the potential to rally into 1.3480 and 1.3540 resistance levels. Notice that the move lower into 1.3200 could resume from these levels. Above 1.3590 we confirm the loose support in the 1.3360 area.

Glad to hear your comments.

Trade safe.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,737
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:44am Feb 8, 2013 2:44am
Long from here aiming for 1.35

first chart is daily, second is same chart but H4

fairly risky, keeping a close stop around 1.337 lets see what happens
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro2.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #65,738
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:12am Feb 8, 2013 6:12am
Hi JD, how r ya? What is your pyramid system says?
  • #65,739
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:26am Feb 8, 2013 6:26am
Quoting fibstalker
Good morning all,

here's my update view on the Euro FX currency futures (4-hour chart). I have also recorded a video to explain yesterday's PA.

Attachment



The Euro traded the 1.3580 area of resistance and short entry on the daily chart bringing price down into it's first target into 1.3410 area.

This 4-hour daily short played breaking the weekly extension long. Price could now continue in extensions into the 1.3200 area of support.

In my last analysis and video...
Buongiorno signore, excuse me,
where can I find the video you're talking about? :nerd:
  • #65,740
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:16am Feb 8, 2013 7:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
I took partial profit (60%) on them many pips ago. The remaining positions are still on and locked at BE except for the 3380 position which got stopped out yesterday. I have no immediate plans to take on any fresh positions as I want to see how the market reacts today. Yesterday after we hit bottom, volume evaporated from the market... it's as if everyone ran to hide behind a rock. There was absolutely no attempt to buy back in at all after such a large move. Basically the longs got squeezed and I think there is more to come. Maybe we test 3245...
Feb will grind down to sideways italian elections come up rest is irrelevant probaaly bottom out around 1,3250 for initial new longs till 1.40 whe will take out the highs 1 more time i think then after the german election coming end 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter date isnt set yet europe problems will comeback also i expect the stockmarket to top out around then. political driven rest irrelevant imo

Inserted Video
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