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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,321
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:47am Feb 7, 2013 9:47am
Quoting egkid
[email protected] will add when we go under 1.34
Maybe I'm wrong but this is how i read my own chart follow my own plan
  • #2,322
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:50am Feb 7, 2013 9:50am
I will wait for a fib level as our friend is indicating in his post here"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6427700

He mentions about Lows of 3300

In the shell diagram that I have drawn in an earlier post few hours ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post6427542

Usually the first shell gets broken severely when a rebound is to happen, that is roughly 3376.
This is beause too strong a rebound in the opposite direction, breaks the first barrier very easily.
Lows of 3300 is a better choice for me.

Quoting egkid
[email protected] will add when we go under 1.34
  • #2,323
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:51am Feb 7, 2013 9:51am
Quoting egkid
Maybe I'm wrong but this is how i read my own chart follow my own plan
Following you
Patience Pays
  • #2,324
  • Feb 7, 2013 10:17am Feb 7, 2013 10:17am
Quoting fdjauzak
Following you
Follow your own chart
why?
Because we trade different time frame and MM and Plan
My big lose when i started i follow famous trader so i learn to trade only my chart
  • #2,325
  • Feb 7, 2013 11:59am Feb 7, 2013 11:59am
Quoting Kambooj
yes, I agree with you. This is just some other stuff I added to your chart, which still implies a substantial low yet to come our way. Vicinity of Lower solid red line is where some action/reaction will occur.
  • #2,326
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:32pm Feb 8, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting egkid
Follow your own chart
why?
Because we trade different time frame and MM and Plan
My big lose when i started i follow famous trader so i learn to trade only my chart
Hi Egkid,

I aborted the plan to follow after I see this formation, It dipped and closed a little lower then 1.3303 on the daily..
This Chart is not mine but it works most of the time/

http://primuspersada.com/images/copas8.png
Patience Pays
  • #2,327
  • Feb 11, 2013 3:56am Feb 11, 2013 3:56am
Quoting egkid
[email protected] will add when we go under 1.34
out [email protected] will long at lower price
  • #2,328
  • Feb 11, 2013 9:18am Feb 11, 2013 9:18am
EUR/USD Outlook

here is the new view, with more downward movement until the lows of 3300. Temporary surge to 3380 might happen before the dip downwards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #2,329
  • Feb 11, 2013 12:50pm Feb 11, 2013 12:50pm
Its ranging in the top rounded rectangle, as was suggested in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6427700

Here it is again marked in *, between 1.3430 and 1.3350

Still looking to go to 1.330, 38%

...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd green circle range.JPG Size: 192 KB
  • #2,330
  • Feb 12, 2013 7:11am Feb 12, 2013 7:11am
EUR Update

So far we are below certain important trendlines on the daily chart. Wont long it at this stage, and still expecting lower lows below 3400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #2,331
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:23am Feb 14, 2013 4:23am
cspip
God Delays Are Not His Denials

The resistance on the daily is doing its job well:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6438872

Looking towards 3250 for support, where a previous shell diagram was showing support around that area:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post6427542

Currently we are at 3328 and going further down. Was waiting for this to come up sooner around 3380, but we went up to 3520 before reversing. The plan hasnt changed still down.

Quoting cspip
Its ranging in the top rounded rectangle, as was suggested in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6427700

Here it is again marked in *, between 1.3430 and 1.3350

Still looking to go to 1.330, 38%

...
  • #2,332
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:27am Feb 14, 2013 5:27am
Quoting egkid
out [email protected] will long at lower price
[email protected]
  • #2,333
  • Feb 14, 2013 6:17am Feb 14, 2013 6:17am
Quoting egkid
[email protected]
I'll wait D1 close , I hope it's above 1.3306 , I'll long
http://primuspersada.com/images/bskd1.png
Patience Pays
  • #2,334
  • Feb 14, 2013 6:34am Feb 14, 2013 6:34am
Thats a good idea, so far its looking like a thrust of a spear downwards.

will post some charts in a few hours, waiting for 9:30 for stock market to open.

The US Dollar index is going up too. Its at 80.54 right now. On the weekly chart it has the potential of going up to 84.00 and its been struggling for a while to pull itself upwards, but its starting to have a good size thrust to it.

below 3300 on EUR is not a good idea to long for now at least. If you are buying you need to see a sizable thrust upwards, specially in its early stages and if its not happening then thats not a good sign for buyers.


Quoting fdjauzak
I'll wait D1 close , I hope it's above 1.3306 , I'll long
  • #2,335
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:19am Feb 14, 2013 8:19am
EUR/USD Outlook

The drop from 3711 is beginning to make further progress downwards. The first primary trendline that it broke, namely T1 was not challenged again by the movement that started from 3347 on February 8th. The upward movement from February 8th found resistance against Circle#1. The T2 trendline is the next trendline where everyone is betting on reversal here, which is roughly around 3280-3300, depending on how you draw it, but it all falls within that range.

Something to note here is an alternate scenario where at 3711 we have a impulse wave of a 5th wave extension beginning to happen. Such impulse waves have the characteristics of the 5th wave having the equivalent length of the entire drop from 1 to 3 (Thats a bare MINIMUM).

Here we have
Wave 1 = 3711-3460 = 251 pips
Wave 3 = 3578-3351 = 227 pips
Wave 1 to 3 = 3711 to 3351 = 360 pips

In the event of the 5th wave that has started from 3520 on February 13th we will have at a minimum the following drop

3520 - 360 = 3160

The trendlines of a 5th wave extension impulse wave are shown in blue and they usually form a megaphone shape. The lower trendline T3 must be broken if the impulse wave is a 5th wave extension.

A 5th wave extension is one of the more common ways that a major support gets broken to confirm a full reversal. They are extremely treacherous formations to deal with, because where the 5th wave starts to extend is where everyone is thinking it has hit a trendline and it should reverse, and it doesnt, defying all expectations

The 3160 zone corresponds roughly to the 50% fib retracement of the move from 2663-3711
3160 also falls within the half way point of the green circle which has encompassed the whole rise upwards.

If 3350 cannot sustain itself consider selling at that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #2,336
  • Feb 14, 2013 9:53am Feb 14, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Kambooj
cspip
God Delays Are Not His Denials

The resistance on the daily is doing its job well:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6438872

Looking towards 3250 for support, where a previous shell diagram was showing support around that area:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post6427542

Currently we are at 3328 and going further down. Was waiting for this to come up sooner around 3380, but we went up to 3520 before reversing. The plan hasnt changed still...
Yes, when the ECB have their meetings they come out and say things which makes the markets move sharply, if they didn't might have carried on in a smoother manner. G7 meeting hinting that the Yen is too weak and shouldn't be allowed to be by Japan made it go stronger, weakening the USD, there by causing EUR to go up sharply.
  • #2,337
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:09am Feb 14, 2013 11:09am
It may well again move sharply today and tomorrow as there is G20 meetings going on right now, and currency rates and 'currency wars' are on the agenda.

The major trendlines (T2) could be broken downwards due to the G20 or voting about whether the big EU budget is accepted or not in the European Parliament which is abit later on.

How far it might go? the 38% retracement, of the 24th July 2012 to 1st Feb move, which is also exactly the 61% retracement from 14th Nov to 1st Feb, would be a good target (1.3100). If it gets any lower (the blue arrows at 50% and via the bottom red trendline that you Kambooj added to an earlier chart) then would it be too late to go back up to touch the big blue circle? Or bounce half way on the magenta trendline...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd green circle.jpg Size: 297 KB
  • #2,338
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:05pm Feb 14, 2013 12:05pm
At 3070/3160 level is very questionable what happens, we have to wait until then, but here is your answer on your chart:

Quoting cspip
It may well again move sharply today and tomorrow as there is G20 meetings going on right now, and currency rates and 'currency wars' are on the agenda.

The major trendlines (T2) could be broken downwards due to the G20 or voting about whether the big EU budget is accepted or not in the European Parliament which is abit later on.

How far it might go? the 38% retracement, of the 24th July 2012 to 1st Feb move, which is also exactly the 61% retracement from 14th Nov to 1st Feb, would be a good target (1.3100). If it gets any lower (the blue arrows...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.jpg Size: 305 KB
  • #2,339
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:26pm Feb 14, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting Kambooj
At 3070/3160 level is very questionable what happens, we have to wait until then, but here is your answer on your chart:
Least they say some wild things to make big movements, only they know what they will say and how market reacts...


It may follow the blue pitchfork down, the one started by the move up last week and down again this. There may be a crescent in there also...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd downward.jpg Size: 321 KB
  • #2,340
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:30pm Feb 14, 2013 12:30pm
EUR Update

Here is more to the move down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 127 KB
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