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USD/CHF

  • #3,381
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:33pm Feb 3, 2013 7:33pm
The Daily is showing a bounce of the lower trend line of a channel that has played out over the last 4 months. We may see a short term bounce here if we can close about friday's highs. These patterns normally break higher, so the London and US sessions will give us a better idea if we are going to hold and spring higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,382
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:05am Feb 5, 2013 4:05am
Quoting TheInformant
The Daily is showing a bounce of the lower trend line of a channel that has played out over the last 4 months. We may see a short term bounce here if we can close about friday's highs. These patterns normally break higher, so the London and US sessions will give us a better idea if we are going to hold and spring higher.
Dangerous to read patterns off of such a compressed chart, in my opinion. However, I just noticed a complex head and shoulders on the hourly chart consolidation and a break and retest of .9120 could be quite bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Gone to a better place
  • #3,383
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:50am Feb 5, 2013 9:50am
Quoting smikester
Dangerous to read patterns off of such a compressed chart, in my opinion. However, I just noticed a complex head and shoulders on the hourly chart consolidation and a break and retest of .9120 could be quite bullish.

Attachment
Agree, couldn't resist and reentered long at 0.9040, SL already at BE, mayby we are forming a inverted head with shoulders, which could be supported by double top at CHF index.
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  • #3,384
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:37pm Feb 5, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting selym_co

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/2707/usdchfn.gif

USDCHF seems to be making preperations for a bearish explosive trend. And yes we have been waiting at the same horizantal support level for the last a few days which is really boring. When we look at the left part of the chart , we see explosive trends in this circular zone. And "history" can be useful when we are trying to make predictions about the future. Such an explosive bearish trend will also shape EURUSD too... it shud be kept in mind that this pair is highly negative correlated with EURUSD ...

Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #3,385
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:59pm Feb 5, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting selym_co
USDCHF seems to be making preperations for a bearish explosive trend. And yes we have been waiting at the same horizantal support level for the last a few days which is really boring. When we look at the left part of the chart , we see explosive trends in this circular zone. And "history" can be useful when we are trying to make predictions about the future. Such an explosive bearish trend will also shape EURUSD too... it shud be kept in mind that this pair is highly negative correlated with EURUSD ...

Regards...

I think we are in for a bearish phase. I don't even think the inverted hourly head and shoulders/consolidation will play out. Why? because last week closed below the the last 7 weeks of consolidation. Also, if we take the weekly chart as 2 weekly, we can see that the last two weeks add up to a bearish outside bar, or bearish engulfing bar. Pretty powerful price action signal in my book. Of course this is not tradeable per se, but it lends creedence to trading decisions on lower time frames, selling rallies off of pull backs on the M15 chart, in my case. I'm going to chase this pair all over the chart whichever way it goes. Now I am going to study your intriguing chart, which is partly why I replied to your post, secondly because you sport a Trade Explorer and that is valiant. The chart, though - I don't remember seeing anything as wacky for a while.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,386
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:32pm Feb 5, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting smikester
I think we are in for a bearish phase. I don't even think the inverted hourly head and shoulders/consolidation will play out. Why? because last week closed below the the last 7 weeks of consolidation. Also, if we take the weekly chart as 2 weekly, we can see that the last two weeks add up to a bearish outside bar, or bearish engulfing bar. Pretty powerful price action signal in my book. Of course this is not tradeable per se, but it lends creedence to trading decisions on lower time frames, selling rallies off of pull backs on the M15 chart,...
Well ,

There are always both bullish and bearish sceanrios while trading. But USDCHF is mostly giving the signals of an explosive bearish trend. The market just moves like sound waves ... Here is an old post with a more complex chart ... But the simple one is enough ...

Regards ...

Quoting selym_co
USDCHF ... The circles drawn on the main HIGHs and BOTTOMS give us the road map for the pair. On the other side this pair has an extra importance because of its highly negative correlation to EURUSD . For this reason I alwasy need to keep an eye on USDCHF by measuring its zig-zag behaviours and the candle formations.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/8113/usdchff.gif


Anyway , as you can see in the picture the price has broken one of the strongest circular...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #3,387
  • Feb 6, 2013 2:08am Feb 6, 2013 2:08am
Quoting smikester
I think we are in for a bearish phase. I don't even think the inverted hourly head and shoulders/consolidation will play out. Why? because last week closed below the the last 7 weeks of consolidation. Also, if we take the weekly chart as 2 weekly, we can see that the last two weeks add up to a bearish outside bar, or bearish engulfing bar. Pretty powerful price action signal in my book. Of course this is not tradeable per se, but it lends creedence to trading decisions on lower time frames, selling rallies off of pull backs on the M15 chart,...
Wow smikester. What a move just now. That will teach you to be cocky...
Gone to a better place
  • #3,388
  • Feb 6, 2013 2:27am Feb 6, 2013 2:27am
Quoting smikester
Wow smikester. What a move just now. That will teach you to be cocky...
. Yep, 0.91200 taken, lets see where it will take us. The CHF is falling over 0.5 %, with a bit of luck it will form double top and USD/CHF will form this Head and shoulders(the 0.9120 breaking bar was with nice volumen). But now at 4h we are at bearish trend line 0.9900 it should provide some resistance. That is why i closed my longs from 0.9040 and will minitor the trend line and mayby reenter long if it will be taken.
  • #3,389
  • Feb 6, 2013 9:48am Feb 6, 2013 9:48am
Quoting selym_co
USDCHF seems to be making preperations for a bearish explosive trend. And yes we have been waiting at the same horizantal support level for the last a few days which is really boring. When we look at the left part of the chart , we see explosive trends in this circular zone. And "history" can be useful when we are trying to make predictions about the future. Such an explosive bearish trend will also shape EURUSD too... it shud be kept in mind that this pair is highly negative correlated with EURUSD ...

Regards...
Still we have the bearish pressure in this pair. the fan drawn on the chart makes it really clear that the general direction is "downwards" . On the other side it shud be accepted as "quite normal" for the price to retest the fan resistence above which it broke last week. ı will be looking forward SELL chances in this pair...But at the same time , if there will be a "retest" why shudnt we make money from it too ?

Regards...

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/508/usdchfi.gif

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #3,390
  • Feb 6, 2013 10:56am Feb 6, 2013 10:56am
Well .9120 was retested and I entered at .9125 and was lucky to get 1 : 1. It looks like a false break to me. Now closed and still holding shorts from .92xx. I'll be looking for opportunities to add short if we close below .9120 today (London midnight).

I've said this before but I am sure the SNB is having a rare old time holding the Euro above 1.2 and that is affecting the behaviour of Usd/Chf and Gbp/Chf.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,391
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:19am Feb 6, 2013 11:19am
I was lucky enough to exit at 0.9140, the declining trend line stoped the price, will now stay out and wait for some development.
Attached Image
  • #3,392
  • Edited 3:41pm Feb 6, 2013 3:26pm | Edited 3:41pm
Time and price are the two parts of the same whole. And forex market is a measurable living beast. I claim that geometric measurements are the key elements to predict the future in the market. In the picture I have drawn all of the required tools on the same chart to make [Time + Price] prediction. The green dot on the picture which is the intersection of the channel line and the circle and the trendline (3 different tools) will act as a magnet in the close future. We shud be at 8740s in three weeks time. Somehow we shud get there in order to complete the natural harmony. Time will show...

Regards ...

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3938/usdchfr.gif

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #3,393
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:52am Feb 7, 2013 2:52am
Hey guys. First order this week: bought USD/CHF a minute ago @ 0,9077. Intra-week range template has been used.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #3,394
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:07am Feb 7, 2013 3:07am
Good morning traders,

as this can be relevant to trading the USD/CHF pair, I am sharing my up to date view on the Dollar Index (daily chart below is from yesterday's mid-week update):

The 79.90 area in the Dollar Index looks strong resistance at the moment and it's very possible it will be able to contain higher price. The sequence of measured moves higher failed on the 4-hour timeframe. The short setup at 79.90 has targets at 78.50 (1st) and then 77.70 (2nd) helping price into that larger weekly setup's target at 77.50s, which started with the resistance at the 81.60s, in November.

These are the two updated scenarios I see going forward (refer to the picture below):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360226968

Scenario 1. Price could start a move lower into the first target at the 78.50 area. It could then continue into the next area of target at 77.70 and into 77.60, after a brief profit taking relief move higher (this is the higher probability scenario).

Scenario 2. After trading down into the 78.50 first area of target price could reverse and start trading higher. This scenario seems less probable at this stage.

Of course we still need further confirmation that the Dollar Index has actually topped in this move. This would coincide with renewed, anticipated strength in the Euro-Dollar cross. Currently the bears are in control of the 15min timeframe and the confirmation of the targets mentioned above and the resistance level would come with price below 79.30. This could take a day or two.

Let me know your thoughts? ty

Have a great day.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #3,395
  • Feb 7, 2013 8:06am Feb 7, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys. First order this week: bought USD/CHF a minute ago @ 0,9077. Intra-week range template has been used.
USD/CHF: we have the take off. First TP @ average daily range - reached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_130205_m30.jpg Size: 98 KB
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #3,396
  • Feb 8, 2013 5:03am Feb 8, 2013 5:03am
Quoting Mr.C
USD/CHF: we have the take off. First TP @ average daily range - reached.
Swissey closed for 92 pips with 1/3,4 risk reward ratio. Initial SL: 27 pips. Chart.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #3,397
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:29am Feb 12, 2013 5:29am
i hope this pair goes to parity or range in 0.98^ sometime this year
  • #3,398
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:19pm Feb 20, 2013 2:19pm
- Now we're talking.
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  • #3,399
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:03pm Feb 20, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting TheInformant
The Daily is showing a bounce of the lower trend line of a channel that has played out over the last 4 months. We may see a short term bounce here if we can close about friday's highs. These patterns normally break higher, so the London and US sessions will give us a better idea if we are going to hold and spring higher.
This has worked out to be a great trade, headed now for the top trendline....the next place I'm looking is the GBP/AUD, been smashed lately and now at a critical point.
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  • #3,400
  • Feb 20, 2013 8:50pm Feb 20, 2013 8:50pm
Best opportunity for a trade on this pair that I see shorter term is a dip into demand around 0.9246. Subset zone is the area most likely to see a bounce on the initial re-test, as otherwise the risk zone is fairly large.
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