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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #335,061
  • Feb 1, 2013 2:46pm Feb 1, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting walkman
and the winner of today morning quiz is WilliamDa
- Congratulations WilliamDa .
  • #335,062
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:22pm Feb 1, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Hi, Ill-b-back

- I hope you are doing well and your family.

- I always close my orders before the NFP (to book some profit), not to mention NFP + ISM

- Cheers.
Hi Sir Ziko, we are all fine thankyou for asking and hope this finds you in good spirits also Sir,

Congratulations, well played

I had 1 small loss and 1 smaller win this week (I had for gotten about them actually), thought I had a tradeless week, oh well.

I have just quite possibly made the worst entry in the history of forex just before market close, but I see more down, looking for 53 area next and dreaming of retesting an old channel at the 50 fib 1.4950

Still another hurdle coming next week from what I can see though.

I am watching and learning...:nerd:

I hope you have a great weekend Sir
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #335,063
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:32pm Feb 1, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting egkid
Just comment about g/u
I was long last week@5770 but my weekly close under it so no long for me
Good I get out of this
Hope someone living at UK can spot on what's going on why GBP Dropping like this !!
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  • #335,064
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:33pm Feb 1, 2013 5:33pm
W/e Review

So the 5673-5878 move looks most likely to have been a pullback in the daily downtrend given Friday's price action ?


January ended on Thursday this week with a trading range of 675pips against a 20 month atr of 541, this was 125% of that 20 month atr. The monthly candle closed as master bearish engulfing - it's body bearishly engulfing the previous 4 x monthly candle bodies. No fractal swing created by this monthly close but it came at a HH. Price remains under the 200sma on this t/f which remains under the 100sma...and the multi-month 5 year wedge is still intact although a downside break looks more probable now. the t/f remains in an opa range but it may become significant if this downside break of the multi-year wedge pattern should occur ?

The Week ended with price covering 115 % (204pips) of thew 20 week atr (177pips.) The Weekly candle that was till Friday's 5878 hi looking so bullish (a candle is not a candle until it is closed !) actually closed as a bearish candle. No fractal swing created by the weekly candle close but it came at a LL. This t/f remains rangy-bearish re opa conditions (overall price action-previous fractal swing hi/lo analysis) now although no opa downtrend created yet. Like the Monthly - Price trades below it's 200 sma which is below it's 100sma.

Friday's Daily candle saw a pip range of 190pips which is 190% of it's 20 day atr (98pips.) The Friday daily candle closed bearishly after the pullback from 5673 weekly low the 4th LL of it's opa downtrend. No fractal swing created by the daily candle but it came at a LH and is likely to become a fractal swing in it's general opa downtrend- the candle was a master bearish engulfing x 3 thrust and closed close to it's low. Like the Mthly and Wkly the 200sma remains below the 100sma on this t/f and price trades below the 200sma.

The 4Hr to 5878 was beginning to show signs of strength with 2 X HL and a HH at that 5878, but it is likley that the general opa downtrend on this t/f will be re-established following the strong move down off this HH which started pre-U.s NFP data but was compounded by market reaction to that. Price trades under it's 100sma which is under it's 200 sma on this t/f. NO fractal swing created by close of last 4hr candle which was bearish but it comes at a L on this t/f

The 1Hr saw a fractal L printed prior to the U.s NFP data that was below the last 2 x HL's of it's previous general opa uptrend....the very sharp (off the edge of a cliff) fall from the LH at 5845 has now seen a LL printed at Friday's 5687 lo but this is not a fractal swing yet. Like the 4hr price trades below it's 100sma which is below it's 200sma on this t/f. the t/f has established a classic opa downtrend now.

G/L
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ex member
  • #335,065
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:34am Feb 2, 2013 1:34am
Quoting CasperTrader
Updated chart from last week. I have not removed the old lines. Just added new ones. The wedge is strong. Not breaking to either side. I was expecting a break below and a sharp reversal from 1.5710 but looks like there's too many buyers sitting there and the big boys won't let you have it. I have closed all my shorts today. Looking to long at 1.5770 for the short term. 1.5860 may be the high we may achieve before another move down. It may take couple of days of ranging to reach there (but I could be totally wrong). I consider anything below that...
So, I guess it was Fed news/GDP that broke the primary weekly trendline (red; see chart) to the upside (a fakeout) and the NFP to push the price back out again. Not that it was really the news but more of an after effect of news so to say. Looks like we have a new wedge and price moving towards the secondary (yellow) weekly trendline. We have MPC rate statement on Feb 7 that might act as a catalyst (or reason after the fact) to break the yellow (or maybe not). Just some of my views on what might happen as a possibility. The bigger possibility being this not happening.

The big a** bearish candle of Friday suggests that price may move further down without much of a retrace (maybe 1.5730 as a slight possibility) for Monday only to bounce maybe at the yellow line and then the wait (consolidation) until MPC.

Attaching three charts here. One chart (4H) is a followup from the previous ones with some lines removed to avoid clutter but can still be related to. The two blue charts, one is another 4H with more details on it and the second one is a weekly to present a zoomed out version to put some lines shown in 4H in perspective.

Good luck for next week!

P.S. By MPC Rate Statement I meant everything combined as a news (Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate and the tentative MPC Rate Statement). I apologize for saying it out wrongly on the charts.
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  • #335,066
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:08am Feb 2, 2013 5:08am
Quoting walkman
and the winner of today morning quiz is WilliamDa

Pure Luck. But With the 200 SMA line ahead, I expected pair to reverse around round number 1.5900. But pair did that earlier. Imo next week is very important.
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  • #335,067
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:09am Feb 2, 2013 5:09am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Congratulations WilliamDa .

Thanks mate. Good luck on next week trading.
  • #335,068
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:13am Feb 2, 2013 5:13am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Hi Guys,

My point of view on GBP/USD : weekly chart.

Take care,
Seb

PS: More on http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/
thanks for the charts
  • #335,069
  • Feb 2, 2013 6:23am Feb 2, 2013 6:23am
Quoting bbmac
W/e Review

So the 5673-5878 move looks most likely to have been a pullback in the daily downtrend given Friday's price action ?


January ended on Thursday this week with a trading range of 675pips against a 20 month atr of 541, this was 125% of that 20 month atr. The monthly candle closed as master bearish engulfing - it's body bearishly engulfing the previous 4 x monthly candle bodies. No fractal swing created by this monthly close but it came at a HH. Price remains under the 200sma on this t/f which...
Very nice analysis Sir bbmac,

May I know that Sir bbmac only focus on PoundDollar only ?


Thank you
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #335,070
  • Feb 2, 2013 6:39am Feb 2, 2013 6:39am
Quoting nAVIN2007
thanks for the charts
Nav
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post6413588
Any explanation u living at UK!
What do you think looks to me more more down it goes next support for me 1.53xx
Strange
Only monthly say will go up and won't trade that as weekly not looks good for long
  • #335,071
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:24am Feb 2, 2013 11:24am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Hi Guys,

My point of view on GBP/USD : weekly chart.

Take care,
Seb

PS: More on http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/
Nice work my friend, I see ABC flat correction forming on daily. Fits in nicely with your Gann lines if so inclined.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #335,072
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:39am Feb 2, 2013 11:39am
wow
i left chart GU price was about 5740 and EU 3670
just now i realize the move stopped out my long.
luckily i scaled out 5824 and more near 5850 so my stop was overall a BE.

wtf caused it?
answer is quite clear:
market doesn't believe anymore in gbp strength.

now the problem... where could market believe?
EURO?
mmm
ok possible.

if EU n GU lose completely their relation we meet Egbp price soon near parity.

when will be next step on UK decisions about their economic links with Europe?
anyone knows?

nobodu.
will search.

bye have a great weekend
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #335,073
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:40pm Feb 2, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting egkid
Nav
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post6413588
Any explanation u living at UK!
What do you think looks to me more more down it goes next support for me 1.53xx
Strange
Only monthly say will go up and won't trade that as weekly not looks good for long
hello,
why you think monthly says up? do you mean because of lower triangle pattern still providing support since no close below?
actually this friday down move really surprised me! i expected supply to come into 1.59 area where is also monthly pivot. as always price never does what we expect ....
anyway as long as price is below that area can keep weakening.
problem now is on shorting price in lower 1.57.
hopefully weekly pivot will show us something good
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #335,074
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:18pm Feb 2, 2013 2:18pm
last thing then i leave
lol
the reaction down in price was quite strong.
such a reject below 59 area could provide enough reasons to meet 1.55 in few days.
then magnets in 1.53 will start attracting price.
hopefully we'll see a trend and not just a drift.

but first we need to see where price will open on sunday......................................
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  • #335,075
  • Feb 3, 2013 2:15am Feb 3, 2013 2:15am
Quoting _BBKing_
last thing then i leave
lol
the reaction down in price was quite strong.
such a reject below 59 area could provide enough reasons to meet 1.55 in few days.
then magnets in 1.53 will start attracting price.
hopefully we'll see a trend and not just a drift.

but first we need to see where price will open on sunday......................................
yes u pretty much some up what im thinking..i didnt expect to see friday i as in small profit now big loss..movement was nuts
  • #335,076
  • Edited 12:06pm Feb 3, 2013 3:23am | Edited 12:06pm
same with previous views but just not the time to start yet, that is daily turmoils/bouncing may not stop yet > weakening for sure, seems though both gu & mighty eu also .agree with BB king about next level up if forced to down gu 1.5264/34 limits for up before 5150>4440 > 3500 again downwards if also break etc.The most important level around 5664 breaks or 5892 still !Anyway big bear set up still in action & another 4227 may likely a test before may prove wrong , bear turn into bull at last if !
actually this post done for test the attachment now working for me or not , hope working this time.

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #335,077
  • Edited 4:09am Feb 3, 2013 3:55am | Edited 4:09am
..
  • #335,078
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:02am Feb 3, 2013 4:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes u pretty much some up what im thinking..i didnt expect to see friday i as in small profit now big loss..movement was nuts
oh ok... so i'm not the only one who got toasted!


Inserted Video
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  • #335,079
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:06am Feb 3, 2013 4:06am
but this version is far better
Inserted Video
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #335,080
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:51am Feb 3, 2013 4:51am
GBP/USD attempted to rebound after hitting 1.5673 but was limited at 1.5877 and dropped sharply to close the week.Initial bias is cautionsly on the downside for 1.5673 first.Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.6380 and should target a test on 1.5268 key support level.on the upside,break of 1.5877 is needed to signal short term bottoming.otherwise,the cable will stay bearish this week in case of recovery.
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