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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #334,841
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:40am Jan 28, 2013 9:40am
Hello all,
I though this could be of interest. Following is my view on the Dollar Index on the 4-hour chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359378811

On Dec 20th, we had the start of that move higher I call the Fiscal Cliff rally. Eventually it came to an end. Price moved lower and then bounce again during the last two weeks.

I think bears are back in control in the Dollar Index. But this has a strange taste as we area seeing the minor pairs (USDJPY, USDGBP and USDCAD) showing weakness to the dollar. While EUR/USD has been consolidating on top of the 1.3250-70 area for almost 2 weeks, DX had a bullish bias, due to the contribution of minor pairs, but its price was contained by resistance at the 80.20-30 area.

The resistance at 80.20 is also a short setup with a target in the 79s. To be able to believe in a move to previous lows in the 79.10 area I need to see price trading below the 79.70 level. Notice that the 79.70-90 area has been providing support for the last 4 days.

On the other hand, should price move again above the 80.05 level a new retest of the 80.30 area could be possible. This could probably mean the 1.3300 area retested by EUR/USD.

Price will tell. Trade safe.

Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #334,842
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:04am Jan 28, 2013 10:04am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all,
I though this could be of interest. Following is my view on the Dollar Index on the 4-hour chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359378811

On Dec 20th, we had the start of that move higher I call the Fiscal Cliff rally. Eventually it came to an end. Price moved lower and then bounce again during the last two weeks.

I think bears are back in control in the Dollar Index. But this...
  • #334,843
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:33am Jan 28, 2013 10:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
follow the money..thats what..
LOL GBPUSD down to 1.56xx too bad i was 1 year too early with my short Shout... remember 1 year ago when it was up from 1.52 to 1.56 and i keep saying short short short? 1.50 this year low perhaps?? ahaha
amazing how it just keeps falling... btw
my strategy is working as well on incredibly strange pairs..
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #334,844
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:51am Jan 28, 2013 10:51am
Quoting spartanforex
long 157.35 sl 15705 tp 157.90
SL hit gap still open
  • #334,845
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:04am Jan 28, 2013 11:04am
God damn.
"Trading: the hardest easy money you're going to earn." -Mark Douglas.
  • #334,846
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:10am Jan 28, 2013 11:10am
Quoting spartanforex
SL hit gap still open
woah woah be careful man..... not all gaps get filled..... my broker showed gap filled in 1st hour of traading....
sooo i dont know about you but i think the gap you see on ur chart is a broker timezone unfill....
u better becareful.....

just like the USDJPY there are atleast 2 gaps i see down at 85... doesnt mean itll get filled dude....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #334,847
  • Jan 28, 2013 11:14am Jan 28, 2013 11:14am
Quoting fxtyrant
LOL GBPUSD down to 1.56xx too bad i was 1 year too early with my short Shout... remember 1 year ago when it was up from 1.52 to 1.56 and i keep saying short short short? 1.50 this year low perhaps?? ahaha
amazing how it just keeps falling... btw
my strategy is working as well on incredibly strange pairs..

its friggin unbelievable..i tried to be smart around 1.59 and got it..i should have known better..haha
  • #334,848
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:17pm Jan 28, 2013 12:17pm
Quoting ashukla26
Hi, as an introduction, i am a newbie to forex trading and still learning basics. right now, what interests me is that there is drop in cable but not that much in EUR/USD. does it mean anything? or may be i am reading too much? what can be the next support for cable? seniors please guide me
http://www.forexcrunch.com/gbpusd-3-...orex+Crunch%29
  • #334,849
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:17pm Jan 28, 2013 12:17pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
its friggin unbelievable..i tried to be smart around 1.59 and got it..i should have known better..haha
The Nav -

Yip - it is "funny". Correlation negative with most currency pairs today. Small negative correlation with EU - Strong negative correlation with JPY. Doing it's own thing.

Broke out this morning, broke support and did not look back..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #334,850
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:07pm Jan 28, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting TauTrader
The Nav -

Yip - it is "funny". Correlation negative with most currency pairs today. Small negative correlation with EU - Strong negative correlation with JPY. Doing it's own thing.

Broke out this morning, broke support and did not look back..
It won't look back until majority longers are wiped out. See attached chart. The solid black line in center marks the points where %long vs %short were equal (courtesy Oanda). If you notice, the price doesn't retrace much once it's crossed the line.

I closed my shorts earlier at a higher price when the UK GDP spike retraced completely. Later went long at 1.5770 but when it broke the wedge to the downside, I closed my longs and went short again. It's now broken couple of wedges and is really looking to over-extend the move that could be very quick and almost 100 pips. I think as it is breaking out the wedges to the downside, the move's getting stronger and stronger. I'm looking out for 1.55xx area before even thinking of retrace. The move could come sooner or after Fed statement. My 2 cents. Could be totally wrong as been in the past.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: equal_L_S.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #334,851
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:17pm Jan 28, 2013 1:17pm
This seems to have May 2012 written all over it
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #334,852
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:19pm Jan 28, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting CasperTrader
It won't look back until majority longers are wiped out. See attached chart. The solid black line in center marks the points where %long vs %short were equal (courtesy Oanda). If you notice, the price doesn't retrace much once it's crossed the line.

I closed my shorts earlier at a higher price when the UK GDP spike retraced completely. Later went long at 1.5770 but when it broke the wedge to the downside, I closed my longs and went short again. It's now broken couple of wedges and is really looking to over-extend the move that could be very...
Good day to you, C

Thank you for the chart. I'm also not touching anything now - waiting for a new day and looking for breakout - either way.

All the best
  • #334,853
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:26pm Jan 28, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
This seems to have May 2012 written all over it
IBB -

Interesting that you mention this.. if one looks at the attached picture - it was about end MAY 2012 when the correlation was measured to be very poor - it has taken the same dip now (on the correlation chart)...not sure if this means anything, but I screen captured this one this morning, as I looked back and saw what you are seeing...and thought it may be interesting to reflect on later.

GU then started an upleg soon after

Have a good one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image 1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #334,854
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:30pm Jan 28, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting CasperTrader
It won't look back until majority longers are wiped out. See attached chart. The solid black line in center marks the points where %long vs %short were equal (courtesy Oanda). If you notice, the price doesn't retrace much once it's crossed the line.

I closed my shorts earlier at a higher price when the UK GDP spike retraced completely. Later went long at 1.5770 but when it broke the wedge to the downside, I closed my longs and went short again. It's now broken couple of wedges and is really looking to over-extend the move that could be very...
That's a very interesting view Casper
That line also resembles the 200SMA I think from memory, not exact but some similar price points.

I wonder if it is used as an important reference point by many retailers?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #334,855
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:38pm Jan 28, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting TauTrader
IBB -

Interesting that you mention this.. if one looks at the attached picture - it was about end MAY 2012 when the correlation was measured to be very poor - it has taken the same dip now (on the correlation chart)...not sure if this means anything, but I screen captured this one this morning, as I looked back and saw what you are seeing...and thought it may be interesting to reflect on later.

GU then started an upleg soon after

Have a good one
Yes, I am very amazed at the poor correlation between eu and gu. Even during May, the EU dropped also, but not this time.

I don't see GU moving up significantly anytime soon on my chart but see an unusual EU short setup possibly brewing.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #334,856
  • Jan 28, 2013 1:50pm Jan 28, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting TauTrader
IBB -

Interesting that you mention this.. if one looks at the attached picture - it was about end MAY 2012 when the correlation was measured to be very poor - it has taken the same dip now (on the correlation chart)...not sure if this means anything, but I screen captured this one this morning, as I looked back and saw what you are seeing...and thought it may be interesting to reflect on later.

GU then started an upleg soon after

Have a good one
Acually TT, I had forgotten about this possible long set up I posted earlier off the retest.

It may well materialise, but will wait for the signal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu13.gif Size: 15 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #334,857
  • Jan 28, 2013 2:02pm Jan 28, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
That's a very interesting view Casper
That line also resembles the 200SMA I think from memory, not exact but some similar price points.

I wonder if it is used as an important reference point by many retailers?
You nailed it. Absolutely right. So, that tells us what indicator might be getting used the most by the big boys.
  • #334,858
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:08pm Jan 28, 2013 5:08pm
Another strongly bearish daily candle close (9 out of the last 12 [not incl sundays] have closed with a bearish body.) 5672 the low Monday - in the region of Weekly S2 (5665 on my feed) and a 3 fib cluster 5692-69 with price nearest 61.8% of the main 5263-6349 (5679) at that low....small vounce from there with price exceeding the 20 day atr at the low point-Monday's low. We are alre4ady below Monthly S3 and price is at 124% of the 20 month atr now with just 3 more trading days of the month left. Below Monday's low the last and lowest of that 3 fib cluster @ 5669 = 76.4% 5456-6349. Weekly S3 @/around 5585 falls close to 85.4% of same 5456-6349 and both these fall in a previous minor daily swing lo zone.

Daily remains in a general downtrend with 4 x LL's and 1 x LH now.

Daily chart below,

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dly.jpg Size: 208 KB
ex member
  • #334,859
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:19pm Jan 28, 2013 5:19pm
If the pound breaks here, the next station is 153. But it is a very very nice spot to go long for a retrace or maybe a change of trend. Todays price action should decide the way. Good luck. If your going short be cautious and if your going long be cautious, My bet is on a retrace for now, but bias may change if we break yesterdays low.
  • #334,860
  • Jan 28, 2013 6:57pm Jan 28, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting feather
If the pound breaks here, the next station is 153. But it is a very very nice spot to go long for a retrace or maybe a change of trend. Todays price action should decide the way. Good luck. If your going short be cautious and if your going long be cautious, My bet is on a retrace for now, but bias may change if we break yesterdays low.
Normally I would agree with the long @ 1.53 but due to the fact that we are teetering near the edge of the ascending TL of a 4-Year symmetrical triangle I don't see this being a smart move anymore.

Personally I play support / resistance by watching price action at those levels, however, a close below 1.55 on a monthly basis could be give a bearish bias for the coming months or even years. Not trying to guess an exact time frame, just saying if we close below ascending TL on a monthly close it is bears territory for the time being.

I have posted the following chart a few times but I am hoping that most here will pay attention to this as it holds quite a bit of significance once broken.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-16.png

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1359362239
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