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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,921
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:54pm Jan 25, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting KillerWhale
alright but yen where it is right now is ridiculous
YEN is just a giant make up manipulated by the Japanese Government
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #32,922
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:59pm Jan 25, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting FiatFap
Excellent post Kanzler.



I view timeframes as a zoom function, so starting from the monthly we see price from atop a mountain, zooming in on price then puts us in the muddy field of base-camp (1min).

As a contrarian, the USDJPY is a prime candidate for selling as it's come back into a previous buy rejection area from 2009 fib zone(s). But it's best to wait for price to come back to those three daily bearish candles i pointed out.

If i was the BoJ, i'd be gapping down price over the weekend back into these bearish daily levels, set a holding...
Thanks. Anyway that was just my take on things - whatever works for you.
  • #32,923
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:07pm Jan 25, 2013 9:07pm
Quoting Kanzer
The same goes with trends - why would you apply a monthly chart to determine the daily trend?
Quoting FiatFap
I view timeframes as a zoom function, so starting from the monthly we see price from atop a mountain, zooming in on price then puts us in the muddy field of base-camp (1min).

As a contrarian, the USDJPY is a prime candidate for selling as it's come back into a previous buy rejection area from 2009 fib zone(s). But it's best to wait for price to come back to those three daily bearish candles i pointed out.

If i was the BoJ, i'd be gapping down price over the weekend back into these bearish daily levels, set a holding pattern, spike it down further into next week, then slam it up for a final drive north.
Good explanation FiatFap. Using lower timeframes are only for pinpointing entries while the monthly/weekly determine what pair/stock/futures contract you are attempting to buy/sell. Without that monthly/weekly bias price in lower timeframe is choppy and hard to trade.

As far as how much we will retrace next week, its hard. We've gone up 11 weeks in a row for starters. We've retrace past 50% of the previous week 3 weeks in a row now with last week retracing nearly to the previous weeks lows. Those reasons would give anyone reason to at least think about selling.

However the Monthly chart appears to be going in a straight line. Not even a 38.2% retrace of November's monthly candle in December. No retrace of December's monthly candle in January, but that candles still open. So with 4 trading day's left in the monthly candle, I'm asking myself, how will the monthly candle close? With an upper wick or near its highs? I'll just keep trying to buy for now because I just feel its more likely we will close the month at monthly highs than close below 90.00.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #32,924
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:10pm Jan 25, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting KillerWhale
YEN is just a giant make up manipulated by the Japanese Government
That's why I hate Japan for what its worth, (Its worth nothing) only my car is a Japanese made car and it's working wonderfully
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #32,925
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting KillerWhale
That's why I hate Japan for what its worth, (Its worth nothing) only my car is a Japanese made car and it's working wonderfully
But I'm not gonna trade yens anytime soon
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #32,926
  • Jan 25, 2013 10:17pm Jan 25, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting KillerWhale
YEN is just a giant make up manipulated by the Japanese Government
Not sure why this is a big deal the US is doing the same thing & other countries are going to start following suit. At least we know the overall direction.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,927
  • Jan 26, 2013 1:20am Jan 26, 2013 1:20am
Quoting KillerWhale
But I'm not gonna trade yens anytime soon
old wounds still itch ?

remember buying it at 145 just before some hedge fund gone bust. Had 40 pips stop and was pissed when stopped. After couple of days looked like pretty good thing and was happy as it fell down to near 110.

however, what stayed in my memory is sudden and violent change in rythm of price movement. Many, many were taken out then.
  • #32,928
  • Jan 28, 2013 5:52pm Jan 28, 2013 5:52pm
USD/JPY is in retracement mode. Target is 89.44 with SL is just above the recent high 91.30

https://www.tradingview.com/v/D1V4ylXs
Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #32,929
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:09am Jan 29, 2013 12:09am
Elliott elongated flat correction up 91.32
Preferred view is for a fall to 90.71 - 90.53 while 91.05 - 91.21 area resists. A clear break of 91.58 would be bullish.
Warning: End of trend
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #32,930
  • Jan 29, 2013 12:43am Jan 29, 2013 12:43am
Quoting igmak
USD/JPY is in retracement mode. Target is 89.44 with SL is just above the recent high 91.30

https://www.tradingview.com/v/D1V4ylXs
Gidday

Anything can happen yes,got caught in the last retrace.
So many different people posting levels,an numbers
Must admit I have been a bit more carefull as I was hedging with this pair.
All good until Grasshopper decided to take a massive dump

People talking at least 93 to 95,

See what happens tonight
  • #32,931
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:29am Jan 29, 2013 9:29am
Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed the 1st target printing right at previous lows, in the 79 area. That's where I see DX in the coming days maybe - as anticipated - by the end of the week.

Notice that the 79.30 area has been previous sloppy support and is here a broken line. I think there is also broken participation at those levels. Do not anticipate a reaction in that area.

Trade safe & good luck
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #32,932
  • Jan 30, 2013 3:40am Jan 30, 2013 3:40am
It's been doing the same shit over and over for 3 weeks and we may see another one from today. Down trend for the first 2-3 days then it goes up crazy the rest of week.
  • #32,933
  • Edited 8:38am Jan 30, 2013 6:04am | Edited 8:38am
- Enough shorting Yen till here.

- But there still a lot to the upside. (I reckon)

- May be today's ADP will expose bulls intention.

- The next target for the bulls will be 92.35 then 94.44

- I suggest reload longs from 90.27 with minimal stop.

- Cheers.
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  • #32,934
  • Jan 30, 2013 10:32am Jan 30, 2013 10:32am
Some new people say they are here to learn.
To those who think that playing the news is smart I ask to read this post from my blog.

"Do you think facts and 'Truth' (i.e. market news) make money?"

Read this and think again: http://wp.me/p2oF7p-pr

My opinion, of course, but found that a few successful traders agree with that article.

Let me know your thoughts...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #32,935
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:03am Jan 31, 2013 2:03am
An interesting battle going on to start the London session tonight, with price trying to go lower multiple times in the last few hours but being rejected and then bouncing right back down from the 91 psych level. Several other Yen crosses exhibiting similar behavior.
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  • #32,936
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:56am Jan 31, 2013 8:56am
Quoting fibstalker
Some new people say they are here to learn.
To those who think that playing the news is smart I ask to read this post from my blog.

"Do you think facts and 'Truth' (i.e. market news) make money?"

Read this and think again: http://wp.me/p2oF7p-pr

My opinion, of course, but found that a few successful traders agree with that article.

Let me know your thoughts...
Facts and truth found in print takes a long time to get published whereas movement of price takes less than a second. Thus you cannot use fact and truth to trade short term.
  • #32,937
  • Jan 31, 2013 1:16pm Jan 31, 2013 1:16pm
Both of the expected scenarios didn't work yesterday. Obviously, the pair trades in a short range with the slow raising trend between 90,418 – 91,377 points now. On the picture the floating 50 was broken and the MACD is under 0 point. Probably, this is the false breakdown average 50 and the mark will get the maximums again soon. The technical support levels are 90,581 and 90,418 today. If the last point of 90,418 breaks, the next target will be 89,894........................... The technical resistances are 91,173 and 91,377. Once the last one is broken, the price may reach the level at 91,907.
  • #32,938
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:32pm Jan 31, 2013 2:32pm
Price chewing on the supply zone right now, crossing my fingers for a breakout in the next couple of hours.

Edit: Or now. Price just broke the high.
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  • #32,939
  • Jan 31, 2013 2:37pm Jan 31, 2013 2:37pm
Breakout confirmed, hope some of you got in on this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,940
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:10pm Jan 31, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting Kanzler
Breakout confirmed, hope some of you got in on this.
does you mean that , the trend going to 90.70 and then 92.30 in turn >>>>>>
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