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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,881
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 24, 2013 5:40am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting Olu
Will we see a right shoulder for a downmove?
- I think a bounce from 61.8 enhances a directional move.

- So, no we are not going to see a down move. (From my understanding)

- I reckon a good or bad unemployment number will fuel the rally to the upside. (It will come out about 2 hours from now)

- On the other hand, from elliottician perspective:

- What do you see from the last wave that ended at 90.24? Is it the end of the fifth wave?

- Is it an end of the economic cycle for U/J?

- Inform us Olu. What do you see?

- Thanks in advance.

- Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ H1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #32,882
  • Jan 24, 2013 6:04am Jan 24, 2013 6:04am
hello there,

looking at the way it has behaved recently the brief retracement should have already ended with yesterday's pressure to the upside which made the daily close surge to the 88.60 handle approx. Your technical analysis are all 100% respectable, but... I don't know what you guys think but I see this thing perilously manipulated by Japanese institutions. The timing of their headlines is becoming rather uncanny. If you look at recent consolidations in this uptrend they were always brought to end by some official hinting at QE, devaluation or whatever. I don't know, I feel like some big eye is looking at key support levels, making people talk when needed. I can't get this feeling out of my head when I look at the charts.
  • #32,883
  • Jan 24, 2013 8:39am Jan 24, 2013 8:39am
Quoting smokey_81
hello there,

looking at the way it has behaved recently the brief retracement should have already ended with yesterday's pressure to the upside which made the daily close surge to the 88.60 handle approx. Your technical analysis are all 100% respectable, but... I don't know what you guys think but I see this thing perilously manipulated by Japanese institutions. The timing of their headlines is becoming rather uncanny. If you look at recent consolidations in this uptrend they were always brought to end by some official hinting at QE, devaluation...
Well said Smokey. This market is manipulated and I think it needs more than just TA to trade it. something like S&R trading as you suggested.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #32,884
  • Jan 24, 2013 9:26am Jan 24, 2013 9:26am
Hi All,
Short 89.88
Ending Diagonal 10m Chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130124 10m[1] USDJPY.png Size: 15 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #32,885
  • Jan 24, 2013 9:51am Jan 24, 2013 9:51am
Quoting Uturn2
Hi All,
Short 89.88
Ending Diagonal 10m Chart?
- Why you didn't add long at 89.50?

- GL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M15.png Size: 13 KB
  • #32,886
  • Jan 24, 2013 9:54am Jan 24, 2013 9:54am
Quoting smokey_81
hello there,

looking at the way it has behaved recently the brief retracement should have already ended with yesterday's pressure to the upside which made the daily close surge to the 88.60 handle approx. Your technical analysis are all 100% respectable, but... I don't know what you guys think but I see this thing perilously manipulated by Japanese institutions. The timing of their headlines is becoming rather uncanny. If you look at recent consolidations in this uptrend they were always brought to end by some official hinting at QE, devaluation...
- If you want to talk to me please quote.
Attached Image
  • #32,887
  • Jan 24, 2013 11:08am Jan 24, 2013 11:08am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- If you want to talk to me please quote.
hello Ziko, I'm sorry but it was just a general consideration, not addressed to anyone in particular.
  • #32,888
  • Jan 24, 2013 11:09am Jan 24, 2013 11:09am
Quoting Goldflake
Took a small long in london session @ 88.30 level. markets looks like in process of double top. target is 90.30
just amazing!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #32,889
  • Jan 24, 2013 11:18am Jan 24, 2013 11:18am
Quoting Olu
Hi Macroman

Its just the way I trade. I look for recognisable patterns and trade them. Sometimes it is waaaaay to early that a lot of options are still possible. But then I prepare for them mentally that way. Just me thinking aloud. So I suppose you are right - 'seeing order in randomness' . Excellent saying.

i understand. in my method, in trading there is always psychological component and i fade these type of trades based on internal processing - ie if i think this particular price graph is catchy and attracts general attention. however, as i trade swing only, because of work, i dont get to use it much.

in other words, if it went as you said, and i would be present at computer, i would look to bet against HS.
  • #32,890
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:21pm Jan 24, 2013 1:21pm
Shorting now is extremely dangerous! I wouldn't consider any shorts until the price reach 100.00 minimum. This trend can have a long way to go :]
  • #32,891
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:04pm Jan 24, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting Compulsive
Looks like a potential explosion to the upside - still long from 81.850

Target still 1.0000
  • #32,892
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:44pm Jan 24, 2013 4:44pm
I'm waiting for 90.55/60 to take fresh short. Good risk reward trade for me.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #32,893
  • Jan 25, 2013 3:21am Jan 25, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Goldflake
I'm waiting for 90.55/60 to take fresh short. Good risk reward trade for me.
- Please read: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6380473

- GL.
  • #32,894
  • Jan 25, 2013 7:07am Jan 25, 2013 7:07am
300 pips straight up?? and look at the weekly.... What have I been missing?
  • #32,895
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:12am Jan 25, 2013 8:12am
With the news from Japan of an increase of the inflation rate by two percent, we have seen the USD/JPY go up past 90. with little to no problems. Continued strong news from USA and more spending from Japan will launch this pair over 100.
  • #32,896
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:20am Jan 25, 2013 8:20am
Clear signal on the ichi for 100...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-25-13-3.jpg Size: 141 KB
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  • #32,897
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:32am Jan 25, 2013 8:32am
I see some resistance at 91.00 that may last for a few hours.. I hope to see an increase as soon as investors start trading latter on.
  • #32,898
  • Jan 25, 2013 1:10pm Jan 25, 2013 1:10pm
resistance, ichimoku, MA, or whatever.... everything looks fake to me these days.
  • #32,899
  • Jan 25, 2013 1:17pm Jan 25, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting forex_J
resistance, ichimoku, MA, or whatever.... everything looks fake to me these days.
mostly it is... but you gotta play percentages
  • #32,900
  • Jan 25, 2013 1:21pm Jan 25, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting forex_J
resistance, ichimoku, MA, or whatever.... everything looks fake to me these days.
There's no holy grail that will work every time, but support and resistance works quite frequently and has a reason for doing so. Watch a short term chart at a big psych number, you'll be in for a show.
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