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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #334,241
  • Edited 4:20pm Jan 18, 2013 4:08pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting ZizoFX
Nav said the same thing. Guess i was wrong then. Sorry if I posted wrong charts. I was only posting my own views. If you say they are not then i probably should study more. That's what i'm here to do.

Thanks Again

ok by your word u have understood what a flag is..but u arent translating this info into the chart

let me try:-
A flag (bull) is a movement/ rally of price in an upward direction which when exhausted enters a period of consolidation, seen as a channel..now the important thing here is..once channel is seen a breakout of the channel, will generally give the direction (the breakout is supposed to be the signal)on yur charts u cant trade a breakout because there no accuracy in the lines (too much noise)

because we follow the trend..the direction of breakout should be in the direction of the initial rally to give confidence, high probability

Now the reason i say the flag is not there, is because there is no channel price is following after the rally, or not a channel showing any form of breakout on the chart that u show..which can lead to a high probability trade

tony is picking up on this as well im sure

I will help u by showing u what i think is wrong because i want to see u make money..


(if the lines are not right...u will get many false signals and this will result in many stops being triggered so its vital u understand the mechanic of the patterns and why they work..this way u can invent formation yourself because u understand why they work)
if what i say is not clear let me know in private pm..
regards
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  • #334,242
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:11pm Jan 18, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting Bones
Trading is not easy at all ,I dont think anyone can be right all the time lol



for patterns I think this guy is very good


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post6315507
Lol. Thank you for the link. I will spend some time on that forum too.

Cheers Sir & Have yourself a wonderful weekend. Don't spend all the money
Numbers NEVER Lie
  • #334,243
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:22pm Jan 18, 2013 4:22pm
monthly $
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #334,244
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:39pm Jan 18, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting CasperTrader
1.5934 was a strong support since Nov 23. It's broken now but unless price stays below for some time, I think long is better. Otherwise, looks more like a bear trap to me. Will watch today's close as well, end of the week. If doesn't close above 1.6, I will short again.
Chart time. Weekly has closed much below 1.6. Short as of now. Will look to add more around 1.5934 if it gets there. Above that could a bull scenario. That is my interpretation. After all charts only reflect history of prices.
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  • #334,245
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:39pm Jan 18, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok by your word u have understood what a flag is..but u arent translating this info into the chart

if what i say is not clear let me know in private pm..
regards
Thanks Navin, I see where the mistake is now. I will PM you during the weekend.

Attached is an image of what I understand from what you said.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Numbers NEVER Lie
  • #334,246
  • Edited 4:57pm Jan 18, 2013 4:46pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting ZizoFX
Thanks Navin, I see where the mistake is now. I will PM you during the weekend.

Attached is an image of what I understand from what you said.
if it doesnt fit ..it aint..

much better..but even this isnt what id call a bull flag..second one i like more but first i cant actually see..

remember channel must be there which is respected..only then can u trust a breakout

many may look at the chart i have below and see a flag but to me..it isnt quite right, it like im make it a flag..because price isnt actually fitting the lines accurate even to trade a breakout
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  • #334,247
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:58pm Jan 18, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I would like to bring the following to everybody's attention - especially the recent Bulls.

Take a look at the GBP/USD Weekly chart and note that it has been stuck in a 1000 Pip Range for ALL of 2012. 1.63 - 1.53 (Support / Resistance)

So 1.53 is our obvious weekly Support and 1.63 is our obvious weekly Resistance. Now, take a look at the Daily candle for 12/19, notice that there was clear rejection (big sellers) as price rejected 1.63 and formed a Shooting Star / Doji. This is a bearish signal at a major resistance point which should...
I personally shorted in the retest today at 1.6007
I believe there were multiple reasons for recent bulls including a bullishly broken monthly TL, a supporting weekly TL and Quartely support, posted numerous times by various traders.
Each has there own view and you yourself even began softening your stance once recent support started effecting the market near the ascending TL, saying that you would trade a break which ever way it went, indicating bullish possibility.

It seems trading is only real "simple", "after" the confirmed move has occurred

But thanks anyway for you extended post, I'm sure you enjoyed it
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #334,248
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:59pm Jan 18, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting Ill-b-back

It seems trading is only real "simple", "after" the confirmed move has occurred

  • #334,249
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:02pm Jan 18, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
if it doesnt fit ..it aint..

much better..but even this isnt what id call a bull flag..second one i like more but first i cant actually see..

remember channel must be there which is respected..only then can u trust a breakout
Thanks for that Navin. Will work on it. Remember when you were targeting weekly pin a few months back? I kept those longs until 1.6300x so i atleast enjoyd that rally practicing & buying with every dip. Took some few SHORTS too. My account ain't looking bad. Like Mr. Bones said we can't be right all the time.

I will update you on my Progress.

Thanks again Brother
Numbers NEVER Lie
  • #334,250
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:14pm Jan 18, 2013 5:14pm
W/E review

150% of 20 day atr covered on Friday and this stat is now up to 102. 175% of the 20- week atr covered this week, and 91% of the 20 month atr so far this month...volatility has returned to this pairing relative to end of 2012 !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The weekly candle closes as a bearish thrust that breeched and closed below it's ascending trend line - right in that previous weekly/minor monthly swing lo zone. No fractal swing created by close of this weekly candle and this t/f remains in an opa range with a bearish tone to it.

The Daily candle closes equally as bearishly as the weekly and is similarly a bearish thrust...this t/f is in a general opa downtrend. Again no fractal swing created by close of Friday's daily candle but a 3rd Ll in it's downtrend.

The 4Hr remains in a general opa downtrend and last candle close was bearish.

G/L
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ex member
  • #334,251
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:37pm Jan 18, 2013 7:37pm
hi im new to this forum....
GU breakout trigered......
i think it will down 1.58400 near resistant

im newbe for forex
Money is not the everything.... But, without money is NOTHING...
  • #334,252
  • Jan 18, 2013 8:56pm Jan 18, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting bbmac
W/E review

150% of 20 day atr covered on Friday and this stat is now up to 102. 175% of the 20- week atr covered this week, and 91% of the 20 month atr so far this month...volatility has returned to this pairing relative to end of 2012 !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The weekly candle closes as a bearish thrust that breeched and closed below it's ascending trend line - right in that previous weekly/minor monthly swing lo zone. No fractal swing created by close of this weekly...

Yes Bmac It's true, we're going south ATM. Flow with the wave.
  • #334,253
  • Edited Jan 19, 2013 10:27am Jan 18, 2013 8:59pm | Edited Jan 19, 2013 10:27am
Quoting ZizoFX
Nav said the same thing. Guess i was wrong then. Sorry if I posted wrong charts. I was only posting my own views. If you say they are not then i probably should study more. That's what i'm here to do.

Thanks Again

ZizoFX.. you're doing fine chap.. we never stop learning in life & work, just absorb what you need to fit your own style & temperament, but never let others force fit their views on you..

Trading is all about taking money out of the market with risk-adjusted forward bets.. There's no money in cheering after the fact unless one is learning to be an FX Houdini..

_______________________________________________________
GBPUSD D1
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My bet is that our beloved Cable will be range-bound 1.58~1.63 for the next little while & our interesting little war of attrition will continue with every blips & dips..
_______________________________________________________

Edit:
Much had been said about the 12/19 candle being the catalyst for Cable's recent bearish PA while ignoring the fact that those who shorted on 12/19 Daily candle would had either been stopped out, sweating underwater, or had given all the pips back on the bullish 270 pip rise between 12/27 to 01/02..

There's more to understand PA then just looking at one candle & scream buy or sell..
EURUSD EURGBP GBPUSD Cross Play PA 101 (one of many trick of the trade to interpret PA)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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interpreting PA without considering inter-market movements is like fighting well-armed Forex robbers in the dark with a handbag..
  • #334,254
  • Jan 18, 2013 9:39pm Jan 18, 2013 9:39pm
There are no views in fx, there's only price action.
  • #334,255
  • Jan 19, 2013 12:32am Jan 19, 2013 12:32am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I would like to bring the following to everybody's attention - especially the recent Bulls.

Take a look at the GBP/USD Weekly chart and note that it has been stuck in a 1000 Pip Range for ALL of 2012. 1.63 - 1.53 (Support / Resistance)

So 1.53 is our obvious weekly Support and 1.63 is our obvious weekly Resistance. Now, take a look at the Daily candle for 12/19, notice that there was clear rejection (big sellers) as price rejected 1.63 and formed a Shooting Star / Doji. This is a bearish signal at a major resistance point which should...

Good post 100,

Some posts in here and there , theirs only targets to misdirect the new traders or shown themselves rights about the moves, and this is bad.

I start to hate this place because of much liars and scam.

I know them easily..

too bad..
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #334,256
  • Jan 19, 2013 2:00am Jan 19, 2013 2:00am
Hey Z ,

whats your view on cable ??


Quoting Zircon
Good post 100,

Some posts in here and there , theirs only targets to misdirect the new traders or shown themselves rights about the moves, and this is bad.

I start to hate this place because of much liars and scam.

I know them easily..

too bad..
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #334,257
  • Edited 3:04am Jan 19, 2013 2:52am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I personally shorted in the retest today at 1.6007
I believe there were multiple reasons for recent bulls including a bullishly broken monthly TL, a supporting weekly TL and Quartely support, posted numerous times by various traders.
Each has there own view and you yourself even began softening your stance once recent support started effecting the market near the ascending TL, saying that you would trade a break which ever way it went, indicating bullish possibility.

It seems trading is only real "simple", "after" the confirmed move has...

Don't take the post personal, just pointing out the facts. But I must remind you that I was NOT looking to buy regardless of what happened at the Trend Line so do not put those words in my mouth... My weekly / monthly view is bearish for Cable which is why I opened up 400k short position at 1.604 a few days ago...

Up about 170 pips and over $6,500 in just 3 days with this trade alone

January 15 Post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post6368354

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1358323146

By the way, monthly candle is now Bearish Engulfing (BEEB) candle...
  • #334,258
  • Edited 3:20am Jan 19, 2013 2:58am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I personally shorted in the retest today at 1.6007
I believe there were multiple reasons for recent bulls including a bullishly broken monthly TL, a supporting weekly TL and Quartely support, posted numerous times by various traders.
Each has there own view and you yourself even began softening your stance once recent support started effecting the market near the ascending TL, saying that you would trade a break which ever way it went, indicating bullish possibility.

It seems trading is only real "simple", "after" the confirmed move has...
I'm curious, which "Bullish Broken Monthly TL" are you referring to? I don't see any real TL on higher time frames due to the fact that GBP/USD has been stuck in a 1000 pip range for ALL of 2012. Please help me out here...

I do however see a 4-Year Symmetrical Triangle.

This pattern is getting so tightly squeezed, a breakout is imminent. This means that GBP/USD will breakout into a new multi-year trend after having been stuck in a four-year range.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-16.png[/quote]

Like I said, GBP/USD is still range bound, best to play support and resistance
  • #334,259
  • Jan 19, 2013 3:55am Jan 19, 2013 3:55am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Don't take the post personal, just pointing out the facts. But I must remind you that I was NOT looking to buy regardless of what happened at the Trend Line so do not put those words in my mouth... My weekly / monthly view is bearish for Cable which is why I opened up 400k short position at 1.604 a few days ago...

Up about 170 pips and over $6,500 in just 3 days with this trade alone

January 15 Post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post6368354

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1358323146

By...
  • #334,260
  • Jan 19, 2013 3:57am Jan 19, 2013 3:57am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm curious, which "Bullish Broken Monthly TL" are you referring to? I don't see any real TL on higher time frames due to the fact that GBP/USD has been stuck in a 1000 pip range for ALL of 2012. Please help me out here...

I do however see a 4-Year Symmetrical Triangle.

This pattern is getting so tightly squeezed, a breakout is imminent. This means that GBP/USD will breakout into a new multi-year trend after having been stuck in a four-year range.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-16.png
Like I said, GBP/USD is still range bound, best to play support and resistance [/quote]


this is great thing about trading, one can tell who can trade and who cant simply by there charts
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