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EUR/CHF

  • #10,141
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:13pm Jan 14, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting matheousse
wft is happening here
PArty of the year for the bulls, and i guess thats pretty much everyone on here.
But seriously its negative rates and relative calmness in europe causing some investors to repatriate some funds. Hopefully we will see some panic in this pair among the shorts!
  • #10,142
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:21pm Jan 14, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Blue.Trader
Do you think SNB wants to do similar to jpy?

think question everyone is asking: will Japanese do what the Swiss did? ---> throw floor under usd/jpy?

been workin out pretty well for the Swiss
  • #10,143
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:41pm Jan 14, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting 1candlepower
think question everyone is asking: will Japanese do what the Swiss did? ---> throw floor under usd/jpy?

been workin out pretty well for the Swiss
WEll that what they (BOJ) ,pretty much, did, when they were announcing round after round of QE, USDJPY didnt manage to go below 75. Now that Yen is depreciating they are veeeery happy.
  • #10,144
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:06pm Jan 14, 2013 3:06pm
meanwhile an all inclusive free party looms...alexcee do you copy?
  • #10,145
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:18am Jan 15, 2013 5:18am
This rally will stop at some point. At least I hope so, so I can reload serious lots.
Is it possible to be SNB intervention, what do you think?
  • #10,146
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:27am Jan 15, 2013 5:27am
so many options at 1.25 and 1.3.
so I expect it to break 1.25 option at least.
  • #10,147
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:34am Jan 15, 2013 5:34am
Quoting rcrist
This rally will stop at some point. At least I hope so, so I can reload serious lots.
Is it possible to be SNB intervention, what do you think?
Looks more like stop-loss-hunting for me... I think that SNB is the main CHF buyer atm. Imagine the amounts of EUR which have been sold around 1.20 - 1.21... Stop above 1.23? looks reasonable to me...
  • #10,148
  • Jan 15, 2013 5:50am Jan 15, 2013 5:50am
Quoting Swissie
Looks more like stop-loss-hunting for me... I think that SNB is the main CHF buyer atm. Imagine the amounts of EUR which have been sold around 1.20 - 1.21... Stop above 1.23? looks reasonable to me...
On one hand im concerned that SNB may start unwinding but on the other, the inside voice is telling me, that they wont, until it reaches 1.3 and above so they can claim that the policy has been successful.

I reckon once they publicly claim that it has been successful thats when they will start unwinding.. But next month reserves will tell more.
  • #10,149
  • Jan 15, 2013 6:14am Jan 15, 2013 6:14am
The move up was too fast to last, IMO
  • #10,150
  • Jan 15, 2013 4:42pm Jan 15, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting lexazver
On one hand im concerned that SNB may start unwinding but on the other, the inside voice is telling me, that they wont, until it reaches 1.3 and above so they can claim that the policy has been successful.

I reckon once they publicly claim that it has been successful thats when they will start unwinding.. But next month reserves will tell more.
I was waiting for the daily close... it seems to me that our favourite pair is quite "yenish". Doubt that this is SNB who buys even with last week's move reserves were the same (the week before was -3 BLN interesting), we will see on Monday. It would kill the rally on Monday with +10bln of reserves.

Looking at current PA this lady seems to me would like to knock out the barriers and stops above and around 1,244 - 1,247 - 1,25.

Dont think they sell now they can wait even one-two years until 1,3-1,4 for more profit for them it doesn't matter their portfolio already diversified (or gradually like maybe the week before -3 BLN).

2 cents.

Best of luck to all swiss long warriors.
  • #10,151
  • Jan 16, 2013 2:47am Jan 16, 2013 2:47am
unless we clearly break 1,2305-1,2300 zone upward structure is still intact for me
  • #10,152
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:25am Jan 16, 2013 3:25am
Quoting pipxster
unless we clearly break 1,2305-1,2300 zone upward structure is still intact for me

Where can you see SNB reserves on a weekly basis?
  • #10,153
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:56am Jan 16, 2013 7:56am
SNB reserves is not possible to see by weekly.
BTW. SNB bought about more than 400 billions at EUR/CHF in last year, but it doesnt mean, that they hold this position only, they made diversification EURO into: USD, AUD, JPY .. I think that big banks Swiss banks are partly behind the big movement up, in December they told to its instutitional clients to lower they exposition in this pair. I think we can expect testing 1.25, but i dont think it will be succesfull at first testing.
  • #10,154
  • Jan 16, 2013 8:23am Jan 16, 2013 8:23am
Possible Head and shoulders. Targeting the 1.23 area first, then 1.236x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,155
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:04pm Jan 16, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting rcrist
Where can you see SNB reserves on a weekly basis?
www.snb.ch monday morning around 8.00 GMT. Its called important monetary policy data report.
If you track the weekly change of the reported deposits You'll get the monthly as a result.
It has been proven to be a good gauge when there was the monster intervention weeks last year (with15 BLN each week)
  • #10,156
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:16pm Jan 16, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting pipxster
www.snb.ch monday morning around 8.00 GMT. Its called important monetary policy data report.
If you track the weekly change of the reported deposits You'll get the monthly as a result.
It has been proven to be a good gauge when there was the monster intervention weeks last year (with15 BLN each week)
1010 GMT [Dow Jones] SNB is unlikely to sell euro holdings amid the current EUR/CHF rally says Commerzbank, even though SNB in general seeks to take advantage of the weakening franc to reduce these holdings. "No doubt the SNB will be relieved by the EUR/CHF gains as they'll help the Swiss economy and prevent the risk of deflation, however, it will also want to reduce the liquidity created by its previous interventions," says analyst Peter Kinsella. "Some data suggest the SNB has started to reduce its reserves...but it won't publicise these EUR/CHF sales as this would damage hopes for an uptrend in EUR/CHF," he argues. Any consolidation in the pair will likely be temporary, Kinsella says. EUR/CHF at 1.2343. ([email protected])
  • #10,157
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:17pm Jan 16, 2013 3:17pm
1010 GMT [Dow Jones] SNB is unlikely to sell euro holdings amid the current EUR/CHF rally says Commerzbank, even though SNB in general seeks to take advantage of the weakening franc to reduce these holdings. "No doubt the SNB will be relieved by the EUR/CHF gains as they'll help the Swiss economy and prevent the risk of deflation, however, it will also want to reduce the liquidity created by its previous interventions," says analyst Peter Kinsella. "Some data suggest the SNB has started to reduce its reserves...but it won't publicise these EUR/CHF sales as this would damage hopes for an uptrend in EUR/CHF," he argues. Any consolidation in the pair will likely be temporary, Kinsella says. EUR/CHF at 1.2343. ([email protected])
  • #10,158
  • Jan 17, 2013 8:04am Jan 17, 2013 8:04am
Over 1.25 seems to be no resistance till 1.30... What do you think... where will it go to? someone closing its longs? Sold 3 mio too early (around 1.2150), sold one today at 1.2452 and have 3 left now... thinking of giving them soon..
  • #10,159
  • Jan 17, 2013 8:29am Jan 17, 2013 8:29am
I think I'll get out of this pair for now....
Hope to reload in 1.21-1.23 area
  • #10,160
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:19am Jan 17, 2013 9:19am
I have 112 mini's left. Thinking of taking 10 off the table... then wait for bigger things ie 1.3, 1.4, no problem to wait...

...and if it goes back to 1.205 thats also ok.
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