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  • #22,201
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:14pm Jan 5, 2013 7:14pm
Current XE quote: 1.04770. Looks like creeping down again. I know this minuscular move means nothing but I see something behind it.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,202
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:15pm Jan 5, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting DaddyBear
In January, 2009, I had a 2 weeks vacation in the Mediterranean sea, so I couldn't trade the Aussie. It had a sharp drop from 0.72xx to 0.62xx during that period. A 1,000 pips downward move. Now, I check the following Januaries and find out except 2012, both 2010 and 2011 had similar movement. It was 800 pips in 2010 and 400 pips in 2011. What is it going to happen this year?
Weekly ADX on the left is resting and all are moving below the (30), also the 42 period is at (9) The lower these go , the bigger the move will be when it happens. The Daily on the right has all ADX periods resting to a lower position, the 42 period is at (11.7) and dropping. Nothing is organized to go either direction at this time....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_5_2013 ADX week daily marked.jpg Size: 91 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #22,203
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:25pm Jan 5, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting forexalien
Weekly ADX on the left is resting and all are moving below the (30), also the 42 period is at (9) The lower these go , the bigger the move will be when it happens. The Daily on the right has all ADX periods resting to a lower position, the 42 period is at (11.7) and dropping. Nothing is organized to go either direction at this time....
So your triple ADX cannot give you the directions?
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,204
  • Edited 8:09pm Jan 5, 2013 7:30pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There could be some factors caused previous January downward moves. First, they were preset. Second, the catalyst was the low temperature in China. When china slowed down so was the Aussie. I may have to investigate China's weather records further to see if my thinking is correct.

Now the fact behind CNBC's headline "Brr! Low Temperatures in China Wreak Havoc" may send the Aussie to follow this 'Cold Pattern" again this year.
Cannot locate China's January weather records online. May be that records are the top national secrets in China.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,205
  • Jan 5, 2013 8:21pm Jan 5, 2013 8:21pm
This is the latest tally of current poll. It is a surprise to me that D1 is the leading TF used by msot participants. I thought most people in this forum are daytraders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: POLL-112612-4.JPG Size: 87 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,206
  • Jan 5, 2013 8:59pm Jan 5, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting forexalien
Yes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......
I shorted aud heavily and wish that I can make 800 pips. That will be good enough for me for next 3 months.

On the weekly chart, I can see aud is ranging between 0.96 and 1.06 or a little higher. If aud drops to 0.96, then it is exactly 800 pips.

I would be happier if there are bounces along the way.

As for the cold pattern, I have no idea. I believe that australians take vacations in January. Is that why aud is slow?? It is like july for us.

In China, the spring festival will be in february this year and most workers will take 2 weeks vacation. .
  • #22,207
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:28pm Jan 5, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting forexalien
Yes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......
I took one netbook with me to the vacation. It was on a huge cruise ship. The connection fee was charged by the minutes. I paid $100 for two hours use. This was not the issue. The speed was like using 5K dial-up modem. It took me more than 10 minutes to send an email.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,208
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:36pm Jan 5, 2013 9:36pm
Quoting mry2001
I shorted aud heavily and wish that I can make 800 pips. That will be good enough for me for next 3 months.

On the weekly chart, I can see aud is ranging between 0.96 and 1.06 or a little higher. If aud drops to 0.96, then it is exactly 800 pips.

I would be happier if there are bounces along the way.

As for the cold pattern, I have no idea. I believe that australians take vacations in January. Is that why aud is slow?? It is like july for us.

In China, the spring festival will be in february this year and most workers will take 2...
IMO 0.96 is not going to happen anytime soon until the Fed raises the rate. The cold pattern I mentioned was that China's economy has come to a pause under such a frigid climate in this January.

"The average temperature in northeast China dipped to -15.3 degrees C (4.5 degrees F), the coldest in 43 years, and dropped to a 42-year low of -7.4 degrees C (18.7 degrees F) in northern China.In some areas — northeastern China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and north part of far-western Xinjiang province — the low has hit -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), the administration said." -CNBC-

Like the impact on the US by the super storm Sandy, such a frigid temperature will dent China's coming economic data.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,209
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:46pm Jan 5, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO 0.96 is not going to happen anytime soon until the Fed raises the rate. The cold pattern I mentioned was that China's economy has come to a pause under such a frigid climate in this January.

"The average temperature in northeast China dipped to -15.3 degrees C (4.5 degrees F), the coldest in 43 years, and dropped to a 42-year low of -7.4 degrees C (18.7 degrees F) in northern China.In some areas — [b]northeastern China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and north part of far-western Xinjiang province — the low has hit -40 degrees C (-40 degrees...
I believe NE China is a major industrial zone. Under such a super low -40 degrees C, I wonder if any factory is still able to operate normally not to mention how the workers can go to the factories on slippery icy roads.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,210
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:02pm Jan 5, 2013 10:02pm
"China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea." -CNBC-

I have never heard that 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in NY harbor. This is a huge scale natural disaster. The delay of the unloading of coal and iron ore from Australia cannot be avoided. China is the engine of the Aussie. When the engine stops, so does the Aussie. This is the Cold Pattern I mentioned earlier. This pattern has occurred in 3 out of 4 previous Januaries.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,211
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:05pm Jan 5, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I believe NE China is a major industrial zone. Under such a super low -40 degrees C, I wonder if any factory is still able to operate normally not to mention how the workers can go to the factories on slippery icy roads.
I am from China and know SE china is the main industrial zone. It is not that cold in the winter. lol Many places are like floria. Around the chinese new year, Factories will be shut down for holidays. Only retail stores and transpotation facilties will be really busy. So it might has an impact on aud because export to china will be slower.

If it takes too long for aud to drop, I will close the position and look for other opportunities. Buying usdchf may also bring 800 pips this year and the risk is well defined.
  • #22,212
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:11pm Jan 5, 2013 10:11pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea." -CNBC-

I have never heard that 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in NY harbor. This is a huge scale natural disaster. The delay of the unloading of coal and iron ore from Australia cannot be avoided. China is the engine of the Aussie. When the engine stops, so does the Aussie. This is the Cold Pattern I mentioned earlier.
It is really cold this year in north China. What has happened? lol

Economic slow down so the weather is colder than usual?
  • #22,213
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:16pm Jan 5, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting mry2001
I am from China and know SE china is the main industrial zone. It is not that cold in the winter. lol Many places are like floria. Around the chinese new year, Factories will be shut down for holidays. Only retail stores and transpotation facilties will be really busy. So it might has an impact on aud because export to china will be slower.

If it takes too long for aud to drop, I will close the position and look for other opportunities. Buying usdchf may also bring 800 pips this year and the risk is well defined.
Chinese Lunar new year holidays might be behind the cold pattern as well. When it is coupled with such a frigid temperature, the pattern may be augmented.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,214
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:17pm Jan 5, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea." -CNBC-

I have never heard that 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in NY harbor. This is a huge scale natural disaster. The delay of the unloading of coal and iron ore from Australia cannot be avoided. China is the engine of the Aussie. When the engine stops, so does the Aussie. This is the Cold Pattern I mentioned earlier. This pattern has occurred in 3 out of 4 previous Januaries.
You got a link? I'm searching mighty high and low for anything relating to this. Absolutely nothing.

Edit: nvm, even though what I searched for should've brought up some results, an odd word made the difference.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #22,215
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:21pm Jan 5, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting mry2001
It is really cold this year in north China. What has happened? lol

Economic slow down so the weather is colder than usual?
This could be the cause but I really don't get this point at all.

"The national meteorological administration said China is seeing dropping temperatures partly because of south-moving polar cold fronts, caused by melting polar ice from global warming. It said the air is moist and likely to dump heavy snow in China, Europe and North America.On Saturday, the forecast by China's National Meteorological Center said southern China would have more snow and rain in the coming days and that icy rain could hit some regions." -CNBC-
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,216
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:22pm Jan 5, 2013 10:22pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
You got a link? I'm searching mighty high and low for anything relating to this. Absolutely nothing.

Edit: nvm, even though what I searched for should've brought up some results, an odd word made the difference.
Here you go.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100356589
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,217
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:28pm Jan 5, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This could be the cause but I don't really get this point at all.

"The national meteorological administration said China is seeing dropping temperatures partly because of south-moving polar cold fronts, caused by melting polar ice from global warming. It said the air is moist and likely to dump heavy snow in China, Europe and North America.On Saturday, the forecast by China's National Meteorological Center said southern China would have more snow and rain in the coming days and that icy rain could hit some regions." -CNBC-

I was joking. LOL The cold weather has nothing to do with the economy slow down.

The cold air is coming from Russia. In recent years, there was more snow fall in China. But there was less in Canada. Why?
  • #22,218
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:36pm Jan 5, 2013 10:36pm
IMO 1.04/ 1.05 are pretty high to sustain even they are not all time highs. A fall to lower levels seems logical at this point. When I posted this EWC on 12/30/12, a fall after the end of wave (B) was in my mind even I did not show it on the chart. Now that the Cold Pattern is emerging, is this the preset market path I have mentioned before?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1356874664
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,219
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:41pm Jan 5, 2013 10:41pm
Quoting mry2001
I was joking. LOL The cold weather has nothing to do with the economy slow down.

The cold air is coming from Russia. In recent years, there was more snow fall in China. But there was less in Canada. Why?
This is my 2 cents:

Due to China's booming economy, the emission of heat generated by the industries might cause an effect of air convection movement in a huge scale. The cold air from the Arctic would flow to a warmer area like China first instead of going to Canada.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,220
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:38pm Jan 5, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is my 2 cents:

Due to China's booming economy, the emission of heat generated by the industries might cause an effect of air convection movement in a huge scale. The cold air from the Arctic would flow to a warmer area like China first instead of going to Canada.
You also have to take into account the ocean currents. The massive ones that go around the globe. I forget what they are called.
Play the players, not the cards.
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